Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong earnings season enters its final week with at least 17 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> companies reporting their 2024 results and announcing dividends.</li>
<li>The proportion of companies reporting in the coming week and the week after is significant at an index level, with notable weightings in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HS TECH </a>indices.</li>
<li>Opportunities to profit from price movement around earnings are manifold and include event-focused trading, statistical arbitrage, hedging, and capitalizing on changes in dividends and implied volatility.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong earnings season enters its final week with at least 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting their 2024 results and announcing dividends.
The proportion of companies reporting in the coming week and the week after is significant at an index level, with notable weightings in the HSI, HSCEI, and HS TECH indices.
Opportunities to profit from price movement around earnings are manifold and include event-focused trading, statistical arbitrage, hedging, and capitalizing on changes in dividends and implied volatility.


Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> is the biggest capping sell.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

<ul>
<li>Following two periods of profitability, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Box trades are gaining popularity on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These arbitrage strategies exploit price discrepancies in options markets for near risk-free profits.</li>
<li>Long box trades involve simultaneously buying bull call spreads and bear put spreads with identical strikes and expiration dates, creating a fixed payoff regardless of the underlying asset's price movement.</li>
<li>Box trades require careful execution consideration of spreads, commissions, margins, and fees, with risks primarily in execution and operations rather than market exposure.</li>
</ul>


Box trades are gaining popularity on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These arbitrage strategies exploit price discrepancies in options markets for near risk-free profits.
Long box trades involve simultaneously buying bull call spreads and bear put spreads with identical strikes and expiration dates, creating a fixed payoff regardless of the underlying asset's price movement.
Box trades require careful execution consideration of spreads, commissions, margins, and fees, with risks primarily in execution and operations rather than market exposure.


Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Are the recent announcements blocking Chinese investment a sea change in US/China relations?</li>
<li>Are we wrong about Trump’s willingness to do a deal with China?</li>
<li>Is it wrong to maintain a bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks?</li>
</ul>


Are the recent announcements blocking Chinese investment a sea change in US/China relations?
Are we wrong about Trump’s willingness to do a deal with China?
Is it wrong to maintain a bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks?


Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

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China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The Dec rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. Straddles offer an opportunity to...

Gaudenz Schneider

Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Earnings in the Week Commencing March 24

​The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The Dec rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. Straddles offer an opportunity to...

Gaudenz Schneider

Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

​Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...

Rikki Malik

The Hong Kong earnings season wraps up with 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting 2024 results and dividends, offering various profit...

Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...