HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>'s buyback of Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake should enhance its FY26F EPS and ROE by 4.6% and 0.36pp, respectively. </li>
<li>With passenger traffic and load factor continuing to recover, the consensus forecast of a 24.2% YoY earnings decline in 2H25 is too conservative, suggesting upside surprise. </li>
<li>Its FY25-27F ROE is a record since 2013, with potential to trade up to 1.65x P/B (30%+ upside). It is also possible to be included in the HSI again.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s buyback of Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake should enhance its FY26F EPS and ROE by 4.6% and 0.36pp, respectively. 
With passenger traffic and load factor continuing to recover, the consensus forecast of a 24.2% YoY earnings decline in 2H25 is too conservative, suggesting upside surprise. 
Its FY25-27F ROE is a record since 2013, with potential to trade up to 1.65x P/B (30%+ upside). It is also possible to be included in the HSI again.


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buyback of Qatar-Owned Shares Is Positive

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.</li>
<li>Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.</li>
<li>The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.</li>
</ul>


The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.
Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.
The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.


Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited operates airline businesses. The Company provides passenger transport, air freight, air catering, and other related services. China Eastern Airlines conducts businesses worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Eastern Airlines Lt (600115 CH)

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buyback of Qatar-Owned Shares Is Positive

Cathay Pacific's buyback of Qatar Airways' stake is expected to boost both EPS and ROE for FY26 and FY27, supporting valuations. It may also be...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buyback of Qatar-Owned Shares Is Positive

​Cathay Pacific's buyback of Qatar Airways' stake is expected to boost both EPS and ROE for FY26 and FY27, supporting valuations. It may also be...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Cathay Pacific's buyback of Qatar Airways' stake is expected to boost both EPS and ROE for FY26 and FY27, supporting valuations. It may also be...