Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> sees a US$1bn selldown of shares on 29 December, due to a weird quirk in the way TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 are constructed and managed.</li>
<li>China's State Administration for Market Supervision is reviewing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer (1337 HK)</a>'s privatisation as a simple case. With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, the Scheme timeline will significantly shorten. </li>
<li>The trade is to be long the back end of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. BUY Shinsei Bank shares - outright, and vs large Japanese banks with higher PBRs. </li>
</ul>



NTT (9432 JP) sees a US$1bn selldown of shares on 29 December, due to a weird quirk in the way TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 are constructed and managed.
China's State Administration for Market Supervision is reviewing Razer (1337 HK)'s privatisation as a simple case. With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, the Scheme timeline will significantly shorten. 
The trade is to be long the back end of Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)'s Tender Offer. BUY Shinsei Bank shares - outright, and vs large Japanese banks with higher PBRs. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Razer, Shinsei Bank, Evergrande, Bank of Kyoto, Nippon Express

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a> resurfaces as "cheap" on my monitor versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a>, but the equity is still best viewed from the sidelines.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Evergrande, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Evergrande (3333 HK) resurfaces as "cheap" on my monitor versus Evergrande Auto (708 HK), but the equity is still best viewed from the sidelines.
Preceding my comments on Evergrande, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Evergrande Trading "Cheap" But Still Uninvestable

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Surprise Exchange Filing: In a surprise exchange filing, China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan; </li>
<li>
Ending Grace Period:Another Evergrande test comes on December 6, 2021, when the 30-day grace period ends on two USD bond coupon payments; and</li>
<li>
Kaisa Risk:Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) faces a potential USD 400 mn default a day after the Evergrande payments are due. </li>
</ul>



Surprise Exchange Filing: In a surprise exchange filing, China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan; 

Ending Grace Period:Another Evergrande test comes on December 6, 2021, when the 30-day grace period ends on two USD bond coupon payments; and

Kaisa Risk:Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) faces a potential USD 400 mn default a day after the Evergrande payments are due. 


Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Evergrande did a "Friday night drop" saying it might not be able to continue to perform its financial obligations. The Guangdong govt called Chairman Hui on the carpet. </li>
<li>The PBOC, CBIRC, and CSRC appear to have thrown Evergrande management under the bus with simultaneous statements that Evergrande's case is an individual one due to "reckless expansion."</li>
<li>$82.5mm of coupons are due today at midnight. There is a demand for performance of a a guarantee on a US$260mm bond. Push has come to shove. </li>
</ul>


Evergrande did a "Friday night drop" saying it might not be able to continue to perform its financial obligations. The Guangdong govt called Chairman Hui on the carpet. 
The PBOC, CBIRC, and CSRC appear to have thrown Evergrande management under the bus with simultaneous statements that Evergrande's case is an individual one due to "reckless expansion."
$82.5mm of coupons are due today at midnight. There is a demand for performance of a a guarantee on a US$260mm bond. Push has come to shove. 


The Evergrande Quantum Kitty Living Its Ninth Life

<ul>
<li>On Friday 26 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a> dropped a business <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/1126/2021112601534.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> at 10:30pm.</li>
<li>The land under Guangzhou Evergrande Stadium has been taken over by the local government meaning the $1.8bn project is under new control. The team may be forfeit as well.</li>
<li>Evergrande Chairman Hui sold 1.2 billion shares of Evergrande (3333 HK) last week in what appeared to be two transactions. That may be linked to a third this coming week.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 26 November, Evergrande Auto (708 HK) dropped a business update at 10:30pm.
The land under Guangzhou Evergrande Stadium has been taken over by the local government meaning the $1.8bn project is under new control. The team may be forfeit as well.
Evergrande Chairman Hui sold 1.2 billion shares of Evergrande (3333 HK) last week in what appeared to be two transactions. That may be linked to a third this coming week.


China

China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd. is primarily engaged in the research, development, production, and sales of new energy vehicles, including lithium batteries and automotive components. Its main vehicle brand is Hengchi, with the Hengchi 5 being its first mass-produced model. The company's registered office is in Hong Kong, and its new energy vehicle business was founded in 2019.

China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle (708 HK)

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China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle (708 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Razer, Shinsei Bank, Evergrande, Bank of Kyoto, Nippon Express

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Evergrande Trading "Cheap" But Still Uninvestable

It is now a question of when and how the debt gets restructured. Best to watch from the cheap seats. Evergrande's equity remains un-investable.

David Blennerhassett

China Evergrande – Pre-Announcement?

EVERGRANDE: In an exchange filing, Evergrande is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan. A 30-day grace...

Thomas J. Monaco

The Evergrande Quantum Kitty Living Its Ninth Life

Evergrande filed a statement Friday saying debt repayment was a question mark. The Guangdong govt will send in a work group which is part of the...

Travis Lundy

Goings On in Evergrande Land

EG NEV (708 HK) raised equity, then sold land back to the local govt, Chairman Hui sold shares, the local govt took back the Lotus Flower stadium,...

Travis Lundy

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