Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

COSCO SHIPPING Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.</li>
<li>I didn't expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
I didn't expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks. </li>
<li>All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don't expect much. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks. 
All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don't expect much. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025):  AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities / Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities (1428 HK)

<ul>
<li>The offer price of HK$3.28 by Ant Financial is attractive - 2.9x P/B and 8.3x PER, both on 12-month forward basis. It is also appealing relative to peers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a>'s massive outperformance against the HSI showed its strong marketing and execution capabilities. Ant Financial will bring many synergies to it.  </li>
<li>Risk-Averse investors may take this opportunity to cash out, but we are on the long-term bull camp and prefer to hold for further upside. </li>
</ul>


The offer price of HK$3.28 by Ant Financial is attractive - 2.9x P/B and 8.3x PER, both on 12-month forward basis. It is also appealing relative to peers.

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)'s massive outperformance against the HSI showed its strong marketing and execution capabilities. Ant Financial will bring many synergies to it.  
Risk-Averse investors may take this opportunity to cash out, but we are on the long-term bull camp and prefer to hold for further upside. 


Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 90.4% as of Apr 11th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by financials, health care, energy and offset by consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life, Csc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 90.4% as of Apr 11th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by financials, health care, energy and offset by consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life, Csc Financial.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 11th): Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>'s 2H24 net profit surged 33.6% in 2H24, reversing the downtrend in 1H24. It has benefited from lower staff and other operating costs. </li>
<li>Better 1Q25 market turnover and activities, more IPOs and placements and improved cost dynamics imply that the consensus forecasts are too conservative.</li>
<li>Its 0.55x P/B cannot adequately reflect better profitability. Despite the denial, CICC's potential merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a> cannot be completely ruled out.</li>
</ul>



China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)'s 2H24 net profit surged 33.6% in 2H24, reversing the downtrend in 1H24. It has benefited from lower staff and other operating costs. 
Better 1Q25 market turnover and activities, more IPOs and placements and improved cost dynamics imply that the consensus forecasts are too conservative.
Its 0.55x P/B cannot adequately reflect better profitability. Despite the denial, CICC's potential merger with China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) cannot be completely ruled out.


CICC (3908 HK): Underestimated by the Market

China

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is a comprehensive financial services provider offering investment banking, equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC), asset management, private equity, and wealth management services. It provides a wide array of products including equity and debt financing, M&A advisory, securities trading, and fund management to corporations, institutions, and individuals. CICC was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025): AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

AH Premia down small but CMB goes negative again, and BYD now joins it in negative territory, possibly on expectations of HSTECH inclusion,...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

AH Premia flat on the week. Volumes are low. All eyes are on Geneva this weekend and I have no view other than to say nothing gets solved in a...

Travis Lundy

Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?

Ant Financial's attractive offer price of HK$3.28 for Bright Smart is appealing relative to peers, and is at a good premium to historical P/B and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 11th): Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CICC (3908 HK): Underestimated by the Market

CICC saw a 33.6% surge in 2H24 net profit, benefiting from lower costs. Market activities suggest the consensus is too conservative, and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025): AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

AH Premia down small but CMB goes negative again, and BYD now joins it in negative territory, possibly on expectations of HSTECH inclusion,...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

AH Premia flat on the week. Volumes are low. All eyes are on Geneva this weekend and I have no view other than to say nothing gets solved in a...

Travis Lundy

Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?

​Ant Financial's attractive offer price of HK$3.28 for Bright Smart is appealing relative to peers, and is at a good premium to historical P/B and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 11th): Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CICC (3908 HK): Underestimated by the Market

CICC saw a 33.6% surge in 2H24 net profit, benefiting from lower costs. Market activities suggest the consensus is too conservative, and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ant Financial's attractive offer price of HK$3.28 for Bright Smart is appealing relative to peers, and is at a good premium to historical P/B and...