HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK)</a> has a very strong turnout in Jan as its overall power generation was up by 47.5% YoY, with wind generation (+50.8%) being the most important driver. We do not think that a low base and distortion from timing of the Chinese New Year are the reasons for the impressive growth, and we see underlying momentum very solid. While Jan is a record-breaking month for generation, we believe the peak generation in this year is yet to come.Longyuan has an attractive long term story, supported by factors including: 1.) beneficiary of government support, 2.) access to the A-share market, 3.) acquisition of Pingzhuang renewable assets, and 4.) increased potential from parent injection. Share price has rallied 59.5% YTD but valuations are still not too stretched. We believe any pull-back is opportunity for taking position in this encouraging long-term story of renewable energy development.

China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK) has a very strong turnout in Jan as its overall power generation was up by 47.5% YoY, with wind generation (+50.8%) being the most important driver. We do not think that a low base and distortion from timing of the Chinese New Year are the reasons for the impressive growth, and we see underlying momentum very solid. While Jan is a record-breaking month for generation, we believe the peak generation in this year is yet to come.Longyuan has an attractive long term story, supported by factors including: 1.) beneficiary of government support, 2.) access to the A-share market, 3.) acquisition of Pingzhuang renewable assets, and 4.) increased potential from parent injection. Share price has rallied 59.5% YTD but valuations are still not too stretched. We believe any pull-back is opportunity for taking position in this encouraging long-term story of renewable energy development. 

China Longyuan (916 HK): Record-Breaking Jan, and Strategically Positioned for the Long Term

China Everbright Environment / Equity Bottom-Up

We believe there will be more positive policy measures to support the waste treatment industry, especially after China's "Two Meetings" to be held in Mar and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15946:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Environment (257 HK)</a> (CEE) is in a good position to benefit. Although its share price has increased by 12.9% YTD, with an undemanding PER of 4.1x for FY21F, there is still more room to go.CEE's project momentum has stayed encouraging, with over Rmb1.5bn of new waste and water treatment projects secured over the last few months. The recent grant of approval to its subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-greentech-0377b31c-5401-466f-987e-9a176b05fb52" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24085:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)</a> to issue asset-backed notes (ABN) represents another major step towards asset securitisation. We also see CEE a prime beneficiary of public infrastructure REIT, which when issues, will both improve its valuation and capital structure.

We believe there will be more positive policy measures to support the waste treatment industry, especially after China's "Two Meetings" to be held in Mar and China Everbright Environment (257 HK) (CEE) is in a good position to benefit. Although its share price has increased by 12.9% YTD, with an undemanding PER of 4.1x for FY21F, there is still more room to go.CEE's project momentum has stayed encouraging, with over Rmb1.5bn of new waste and water treatment projects secured over the last few months. The recent grant of approval to its subsidiary China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK) to issue asset-backed notes (ABN) represents another major step towards asset securitisation. We also see CEE a prime beneficiary of public infrastructure REIT, which when issues, will both improve its valuation and capital structure.  

China Everbright Environment (257 HK): Compelling Story yet to Fully Appreciate

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary and Conclusion</h2>
What's Original?
This insight is an in-depth look into the Asian wind energy industry, covering the value chain and related companies at each key stage of the value chain. Our research includes the following:
Industry Background: This includes an in-depth analysis on the wind energy sector with an overview of wind energy, including the growth of global installed capacity wind energy and analysis of the Asian wind energy market.
We examine both global onshore and offshore wind energy and differences in installation costs, annual investments, levelised cost of electricity (LCoE) and the declining trend in installation costs.
The potential capacity level of offshore wind energy is higher than onshore, though installation costs, O&amp;M and transportation costs are currently higher for offshore which is clearly reflected in the LCoE of the two categories.
When comparing total global wind capacity against the Asian market alone, over the last decade the Asian market’s growth rate was higher than the global rate and 51% of global new capacity additions were made in the Asian region.
The majority of Asian new capacity installed in Asian market was in APAC and China remained the world’s largest onshore market accounting for 37% of total onshore installations in 2019 while in the offshore market China accounted for a slightly more modest 23% of installations, trailing the UK and Germany.
The total installed capacity of onshore wind is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% and to reach 1,787 GW globally in 2030 and then 5,044 GW by 2050. Furthermore, Asia (mostly China) should continue to dominate the onshore wind power industry, with more than 50% of global installations by 2050. Offshore wind energy in Asia should grow at a CAGR of 28% during 2018-30 and reach 613 GW while the Asian onshore market is expected to grow at a 13% CAGR and reach 2,646 GW. We examine the leading Asian countries (India, Japan and China) in the sector and their growth potential.
We believe that, over the next decade, the Asian market will outperform in wind energy growth compared to Europe and the US. Further, the trend towards offshore wind energy development in the Asian region will start to gather steam. The growth will be still mainly driven by China, India and Japan, however, apart from those countries South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam also demonstrate some potential to develop wind energy.
Value Chain Analysis: We detail the value chain for wind energy highlighting the critical stages of the value chain (raw material supply, design and development services, component supply, wind turbine manufacturers, construction &amp; installation services and wind farm developers) and the leading players in those stages.
Wind Farm Owners - By the end of 2019, the top 15 wind farm owner-operators held over 1/3 of the total 650 GW of onshore and offshore assets globally.  Chinese utilities continue to dominate the top 15 ranking of wind asset owners as China is the leader in the market. We believe that this situation will continue as wind energy installation in China is expected to grow at higher rate than other leading countries in the world.
Original Equipment Manufacturing - OEMs usually manufacture some of the critical components such as the nacelle in-house, and blades and towers are produced either by the OEM or fabricated to the OEM's specifications by a supplier. The tower, gearbox, shafts, bearings, blades, generator, power converter and control systems accounted more than 80% of total costs.
Although most Asian suppliers have historically relied on turbine technologies licensed from Europe to enter the wind industry, the Asia Pacific has now become the world’s largest wind turbine manufacturing hub after a decade of development. In 2019, some 33 wind turbine manufacturers installed an estimated 22,893 wind turbines globally with a combined capacity of 63,076 MW. Of the 33 suppliers, 20 are from APAC.
Further, we have noticed that Chinese and Indian players have maintained their leading market position in the Asian region while international players like Siemens Gamesa and GE were able to obtain market share in the region.
Rotors - Turbine rotor diameters have been getting larger as a result of greater pressure for turbine OEMs to reduce the LCOE by launching new turbines with larger rotors that allow for better capacity factors and an improvement in AEP (Annual Energy Production). China is the key driver behind the trend of larger wind turbine rotors as out of the 6,691 units of 2.0 MW wind turbines installed globally in 2018, nearly 80% are located in China, of which more than half the turbines installed are equipped with rotors that are 120m or larger. We see the trend of building larger and light weight rotors continuing, especially with Asian market started to develop more offshore wind projects.
Blades - Blade core material balsa shortages have prompted turbine OEMs and blade manufacturers to switch to PET and hybrid designs with Balsa and PET. Wood Mackenzie forecasts the share of PET to increase from 20% in 2018 to more than 55% by 2023.
Gearboxes - GWEC predicted that annual global wind gearbox demand is likely to reach 56.4 GW in 2019 and then peak in 2020 at 59.1GW driven by the installation rush in China and the US. Regionally, around 40-48% of total demand is likely to be produced in South East Asia between 2019-2023. Furthermore, around 75 GW of gearbox manufacturing capacity is available globally, thus GWEC does not expect any major bottleneck. Around 70% of the global market share is represented by three main players, Winergy, NGC and ZF. Winergy and NGC have maintained similar levels of wind turbine gear box market share over a decade while ZF was increase its market share by acquiring other leading companies around the globe.
Towers - The tower has low technical requirements compared to other components and is thus usually sourced locally. A considerable percentage of Asian tower manufacturers ship their wind towers to North American and European countries, as production costs are lower in Asian countries and they are able to offer towers at competitive prices. Some players like Suzlon have invented lower cost hybrid tower structures which can be built at much lower cost than traditional designs.
Services &amp; Support Opportunities – Broadly speaking, the services opportunities can be categorised into: Project development Geotechnical services Logistics support for wind farm Construction opportunities Operations and maintenance. These service providing companies generate higher margins compared to OEMs and wind turbine manufactures and as with solar power, we see a trend for OEM and component manufactures to expand services segments by introducing new technological innovation.

Summary and Conclusion
What's Original?
This insight is an in-depth look into the Asian wind energy industry, covering the value chain and related companies at each key stage of the value chain. Our research includes the following:
Industry Background: This includes an in-depth analysis on the wind energy sector with an overview of wind energy, including the growth of global installed capacity wind energy and analysis of the Asian wind energy market.
We examine both global onshore and offshore wind energy and differences in installation costs, annual investments, levelised cost of electricity (LCoE) and the declining trend in installation costs.
The potential capacity level of offshore wind energy is higher than onshore, though installation costs, O&amp;M and transportation costs are currently higher for offshore which is clearly reflected in the LCoE of the two categories.
When comparing total global wind capacity against the Asian market alone, over the last decade the Asian market’s growth rate was higher than the global rate and 51% of global new capacity additions were made in the Asian region.
The majority of Asian new capacity installed in Asian market was in APAC and China remained the world’s largest onshore market accounting for 37% of total onshore installations in 2019 while in the offshore market China accounted for a slightly more modest 23% of installations, trailing the UK and Germany.
The total installed capacity of onshore wind is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% and to reach 1,787 GW globally in 2030 and then 5,044 GW by 2050. Furthermore, Asia (mostly China) should continue to dominate the onshore wind power industry, with more than 50% of global installations by 2050. Offshore wind energy in Asia should grow at a CAGR of 28% during 2018-30 and reach 613 GW while the Asian onshore market is expected to grow at a 13% CAGR and reach 2,646 GW. We examine the leading Asian countries (India, Japan and China) in the sector and their growth potential.
We believe that, over the next decade, the Asian market will outperform in wind energy growth compared to Europe and the US. Further, the trend towards offshore wind energy development in the Asian region will start to gather steam. The growth will be still mainly driven by China, India and Japan, however, apart from those countries South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam also demonstrate some potential to develop wind energy.
Value Chain Analysis: We detail the value chain for wind energy highlighting the critical stages of the value chain (raw material supply, design and development services, component supply, wind turbine manufacturers, construction &amp; installation services and wind farm developers) and the leading players in those stages.
Wind Farm Owners - By the end of 2019, the top 15 wind farm owner-operators held over 1/3 of the total 650 GW of onshore and offshore assets globally.  Chinese utilities continue to dominate the top 15 ranking of wind asset owners as China is the leader in the market. We believe that this situation will continue as wind energy installation in China is expected to grow at higher rate than other leading countries in the world.
Original Equipment Manufacturing - OEMs usually manufacture some of the critical components such as the nacelle in-house, and blades and towers are produced either by the OEM or fabricated to the OEM's specifications by a supplier. The tower, gearbox, shafts, bearings, blades, generator, power converter and control systems accounted more than 80% of total costs.
Although most Asian suppliers have historically relied on turbine technologies licensed from Europe to enter the wind industry, the Asia Pacific has now become the world’s largest wind turbine manufacturing hub after a decade of development. In 2019, some 33 wind turbine manufacturers installed an estimated 22,893 wind turbines globally with a combined capacity of 63,076 MW. Of the 33 suppliers, 20 are from APAC.
Further, we have noticed that Chinese and Indian players have maintained their leading market position in the Asian region while international players like Siemens Gamesa and GE were able to obtain market share in the region.
Rotors - Turbine rotor diameters have been getting larger as a result of greater pressure for turbine OEMs to reduce the LCOE by launching new turbines with larger rotors that allow for better capacity factors and an improvement in AEP (Annual Energy Production). China is the key driver behind the trend of larger wind turbine rotors as out of the 6,691 units of 2.0 MW wind turbines installed globally in 2018, nearly 80% are located in China, of which more than half the turbines installed are equipped with rotors that are 120m or larger. We see the trend of building larger and light weight rotors continuing, especially with Asian market started to develop more offshore wind projects.
Blades - Blade core material balsa shortages have prompted turbine OEMs and blade manufacturers to switch to PET and hybrid designs with Balsa and PET. Wood Mackenzie forecasts the share of PET to increase from 20% in 2018 to more than 55% by 2023.
Gearboxes - GWEC predicted that annual global wind gearbox demand is likely to reach 56.4 GW in 2019 and then peak in 2020 at 59.1GW driven by the installation rush in China and the US. Regionally, around 40-48% of total demand is likely to be produced in South East Asia between 2019-2023. Furthermore, around 75 GW of gearbox manufacturing capacity is available globally, thus GWEC does not expect any major bottleneck. Around 70% of the global market share is represented by three main players, Winergy, NGC and ZF. Winergy and NGC have maintained similar levels of wind turbine gear box market share over a decade while ZF was increase its market share by acquiring other leading companies around the globe.
Towers - The tower has low technical requirements compared to other components and is thus usually sourced locally. A considerable percentage of Asian tower manufacturers ship their wind towers to North American and European countries, as production costs are lower in Asian countries and they are able to offer towers at competitive prices. Some players like Suzlon have invented lower cost hybrid tower structures which can be built at much lower cost than traditional designs.
Services &amp; Support Opportunities – Broadly speaking, the services opportunities can be categorised into: Project development Geotechnical services Logistics support for wind farm Construction opportunities Operations and maintenance. These service providing companies generate higher margins compared to OEMs and wind turbine manufactures and as with solar power, we see a trend for OEM and component manufactures to expand services segments by introducing new technological innovation.

Asian Wind Energy: Efficiency and Cost Reduction in Focus as Players Eye a Post FiT Future

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy / Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-jingneng-clean-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16316:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK)</a>/BJCE is the largest gas-fired heat and power supplier in Beijing and the leading wind power operator in China. After market close, BJCE announced a conditional voluntary cash general offer from Beijing Energy Holding, the controlling shareholder. Beijing Energy Holding will offer HK$2.70 in cash for each H-share, a premium of 11.57% to the last close price of HK$2.42 per H-share and a premium of 70.89% to the unaffected price of HK$1.58 per H-share (6 July prior to the announcement of a possible privatisation bid). This potential privatisation joins a list of recent SOE privatisations of clean energy companies - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadian-fuxin-energy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:59:1" rel="noopener">Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-renewables-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7542:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Renewables Corp H (958 HK)</a> and CP Clean Energy.<div class="content-highlight">The key condition precedent will be approval by at least 75% disinterested H-shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested H-shareholders rejection) and minimum acceptance of at least 90% of H-shares held by disinterested H-shareholders. Due to an attractive offer price, we think that offer will garner enough acceptances to become unconditional.  </div>

Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK)/BJCE is the largest gas-fired heat and power supplier in Beijing and the leading wind power operator in China. After market close, BJCE announced a conditional voluntary cash general offer from Beijing Energy Holding, the controlling shareholder. Beijing Energy Holding will offer HK$2.70 in cash for each H-share, a premium of 11.57% to the last close price of HK$2.42 per H-share and a premium of 70.89% to the unaffected price of HK$1.58 per H-share (6 July prior to the announcement of a possible privatisation bid). This potential privatisation joins a list of recent SOE privatisations of clean energy companies - Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK),  Huaneng Renewables Corp H (958 HK) and CP Clean Energy.The key condition precedent will be approval by at least 75% disinterested H-shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested H-shareholders rejection) and minimum acceptance of at least 90% of H-shares held by disinterested H-shareholders. Due to an attractive offer price, we think that offer will garner enough acceptances to become unconditional.  

Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy’s Voluntary Conditional Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
On the 1 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadian-fuxin-energy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:59:1" rel="noopener">Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK)</a> joined an ever-growing list of clean-energy companies subject to restructurings/takeovers by <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0601/2020060103584.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing</a> its major shareholder, Huadian with 62.76% - via wholly-owned listed vehicle Fujian Huadian Furui (the Offeror) - had tabled a privatisation Offer by way of a Merger by Absorption.  The Offer price of $2.50/share, was a 65.56% premium to last close and 85.34% premium to the average closing for the 90 days prior to the Offer announcement. The Offer Price is Final.
</div>
<div>
A final dividend of RMB0.054/share (~HK$0.0587/share) was also be added to the consideration price, for those shareholders whose names were on the register as at 9 July. 
Following pre-conditional approvals from NDRC, MoC, &amp; SAFE <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0821/2020082101221.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 21 August, the Composite Document has now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0826/2020082600007.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued</a>.
This is a streamlined merger by absorption, absent a tendering condition. The IFA opines the Offer is fair &amp; reasonable. 
The H Share Class Meeting will be held on the 16 September, with an expected payment on (or before) the 12 October.
This is a clean transaction and will continue to trade tight to terms. Either play the narrow spread or look to position in one of Huadian's peers. 
As always, more below the fold. 
</div>
<div>
<hr>
This insight addresses the content within the Composite Doc. For a more detailed overview of Huadian, please refer to my prior insight: <a href="https://skr.ma/g466D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Huadian Fuxin (816 HK) Becomes The Latest Clean Energy Takeover Play</a>.
</div>


On the 1 June, Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK) joined an ever-growing list of clean-energy companies subject to restructurings/takeovers by announcing its major shareholder, Huadian with 62.76% - via wholly-owned listed vehicle Fujian Huadian Furui (the Offeror) - had tabled a privatisation Offer by way of a Merger by Absorption.  The Offer price of $2.50/share, was a 65.56% premium to last close and 85.34% premium to the average closing for the 90 days prior to the Offer announcement. The Offer Price is Final.


A final dividend of RMB0.054/share (~HK$0.0587/share) was also be added to the consideration price, for those shareholders whose names were on the register as at 9 July. 
Following pre-conditional approvals from NDRC, MoC, &amp; SAFE announced on the 21 August, the Composite Document has now been issued.
This is a streamlined merger by absorption, absent a tendering condition. The IFA opines the Offer is fair &amp; reasonable. 
The H Share Class Meeting will be held on the 16 September, with an expected payment on (or before) the 12 October.
This is a clean transaction and will continue to trade tight to terms. Either play the narrow spread or look to position in one of Huadian's peers. 
As always, more below the fold. 



This insight addresses the content within the Composite Doc. For a more detailed overview of Huadian, please refer to my prior insight: Huadian Fuxin (816 HK) Becomes The Latest Clean Energy Takeover Play.


Huadian Fuxin (816 HK): Doc Out. Done Deal

China

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

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China Longyuan Power (916 HK)

China Longyuan (916 HK): Record-Breaking Jan, and Strategically Positioned for the Long Term

China Longyuan has a strong Jan generation with 50.8% YoY growth in wind generation. We expect it to benefit from China's clean energy initiatives...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Everbright Environment (257 HK): Compelling Story yet to Fully Appreciate

China Everbright Enviornment continued to demonstrate strong capability to secure new projects and it will also benefit hugely from the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Wind Energy: Efficiency and Cost Reduction in Focus as Players Eye a Post FiT Future

This Smartkarma Original is an in-depth look into the Asian wind energy industry, covering the value chain and related companies at each key stage...

Mio Kato

Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy’s Voluntary Conditional Offer

BJCE announced a conditional voluntary cash general offer from Beijing Energy Holding at HK$2.70. Due to an attractive offer price, we think that...

Arun George

Huadian Fuxin (816 HK): Doc Out. Done Deal

On the 1 June, Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK) joined an ever-growing list of clean-energy companies subject to restructurings/takeovers by...

David Blennerhassett

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