HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Longyuan Power Group / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK)</a> is expected to see an exciting year on the back of faster capacity growth, increase in utilisation hours and higher average tariff.</li>
<li>Potential asset injection from its parent CHN Energy remains a wild card. It may grow its capacity by an average of 30% over the next three years if materialises.</li>
<li>Lower funding costs and the return to A-share are positive to Longyuan's expansion. We think consensus forecasts for next 2 years are too low and represent potential upside surprises.</li>
</ul>



China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK) is expected to see an exciting year on the back of faster capacity growth, increase in utilisation hours and higher average tariff.
Potential asset injection from its parent CHN Energy remains a wild card. It may grow its capacity by an average of 30% over the next three years if materialises.
Lower funding costs and the return to A-share are positive to Longyuan's expansion. We think consensus forecasts for next 2 years are too low and represent potential upside surprises.


China Longyuan (916 HK): It Deserves the Premium

<ul>
<li>FY21 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a> is healthy, though behind expectations due to impairments. We see them not recurrent into FY22, and this should be positive to earnings.  </li>
<li>Management sees some margin decline for WTG segment but the expectation of over 30% volume growth should offset the impact. Orderbook is secured at 16,874.4MW.</li>
<li>Growth in power servicing is the bright sport with target revenue growth for 50%. Goldwind also plans to also add 0.5-1GW of generating capacity annually at wind farm development segment.</li>
</ul>


FY21 result of Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK) is healthy, though behind expectations due to impairments. We see them not recurrent into FY22, and this should be positive to earnings.  
Management sees some margin decline for WTG segment but the expectation of over 30% volume growth should offset the impact. Orderbook is secured at 16,874.4MW.
Growth in power servicing is the bright sport with target revenue growth for 50%. Goldwind also plans to also add 0.5-1GW of generating capacity annually at wind farm development segment.


Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK): Positive Messages from Post-FY21 Call

China Power International Development / Equity Bottom-Up

China Power International Development (2380 HK)

<ul>
<li>2H21 is bad for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> as coal price surged. But the positive news is that its wind and solar segments logged a 50.6% full-year profit growth.</li>
<li>There is good progress on transformation and it has 7GW of clean energy capacity to come on stream in FY22. This is equivalent to 46% of the existing capacity.</li>
<li>CPI said coal-fired plants are marginally profitable in Jan-Feb; meanwhile, hydropower will do better in this year. Overall, these set the stage for a turnaround.</li>
</ul>


2H21 is bad for China Power International (2380 HK) as coal price surged. But the positive news is that its wind and solar segments logged a 50.6% full-year profit growth.
There is good progress on transformation and it has 7GW of clean energy capacity to come on stream in FY22. This is equivalent to 46% of the existing capacity.
CPI said coal-fired plants are marginally profitable in Jan-Feb; meanwhile, hydropower will do better in this year. Overall, these set the stage for a turnaround.


China Power International (2380 HK): Transformation to Soon Bear Fruits

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Group / Event-Driven

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Group (1250 HK)

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-enterprises-clean-energy-grp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6927:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Enterprises Clean Energy Grp (1250 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shandong-hi-speed-financial-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group (412 HK)</a>/CSFG have simultaneously entered trading halts today. CSFG is likely a suitor for BE Clean Energy.</li>
<li>There is a track record of SOE privatisations of clean energy companies – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadian-fuxin-energy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:59:1" rel="noopener">Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-renewables-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7542:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Renewables Corp H (958 HK)</a> and CP Clean Energy</li>
<li>In this note, we look at CSFG’s recent failed attempt at acquiring a 22.78% stake at a price of HK$0.088, along with BE Clean Energy's trading updates and peer multiples.   </li>
</ul>



Beijing Enterprises Clean Energy Grp (1250 HK) and China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group (412 HK)/CSFG have simultaneously entered trading halts today. CSFG is likely a suitor for BE Clean Energy.
There is a track record of SOE privatisations of clean energy companies – Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK),  Huaneng Renewables Corp H (958 HK) and CP Clean Energy
In this note, we look at CSFG’s recent failed attempt at acquiring a 22.78% stake at a price of HK$0.088, along with BE Clean Energy's trading updates and peer multiples.   


BE Clean Energy Back in the Cross Hairs of China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group?

China Three Gorges Renewables / Equity Bottom-Up

China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH)

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-three-gorges-renewables" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28950:1" rel="noopener">China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH)</a> (CTGR) has an splendid FY21 as it pre-announced result with a range of 46.5-53.1% growth in recurring profit, fuelled by generation and disposal gains. </li>
<li>The first full-year contribution of many projects commissioned in 4Q21, which boosted a 28.4% QoQ surge in power generation, should underpin FY22 earnings - consensus forecast is expecting 41% growth.</li>
<li>YTD, CTGR's share price performed in line with Shanghai Composite Index (-6.1%), but its strong EPS CAGR of 22% for FY21-23 provides room for it to outperformed in medium term. </li>
</ul>



China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH) (CTGR) has an splendid FY21 as it pre-announced result with a range of 46.5-53.1% growth in recurring profit, fuelled by generation and disposal gains. 
The first full-year contribution of many projects commissioned in 4Q21, which boosted a 28.4% QoQ surge in power generation, should underpin FY22 earnings - consensus forecast is expecting 41% growth.
YTD, CTGR's share price performed in line with Shanghai Composite Index (-6.1%), but its strong EPS CAGR of 22% for FY21-23 provides room for it to outperformed in medium term. 


China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH): Good, and Better Is Coming

China

China Longyuan Power Group is a leading power producer primarily engaged in the generation and sale of wind and coal power, alongside other renewable energy projects such as solar, tidal, biomass, and geothermal. The company also manufactures power equipment and provides related consulting, maintenance, and training services. It was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China.

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China Longyuan Power Group (916 HK)

China Longyuan (916 HK): It Deserves the Premium

FY22 will be an exciting year - higher utilisation, improvement in tariff, faster capacity growth and potential asset injection. All these factors...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK): Positive Messages from Post-FY21 Call

WTG is set for a 30% growth in capacity delivery in FY22, offsetting the impact of lower margin. Both power servicing and wind farm development...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Power International (2380 HK): Transformation to Soon Bear Fruits

CPI is making good progress in transformation into a clean energy play. Profitability will improve in FY22, providing room for valuations to catch...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BE Clean Energy Back in the Cross Hairs of China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group?

BE Clean Energy and CSFG have simultaneously entered trading halts today. CSFG is likely a suitor for BE Clean Energy. CSFG recently failed to...

Arun George

China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH): Good, and Better Is Coming

CTGR's pre-announced FY21 result beats market expectations, and FY22 beyond will be fuelled by more new capacity completion, particularly from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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