Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Despite strong headwinds that dealers faced, we still project Meidong’s 1H24 net profit to be positive with subsidies from Porsche and Lexus.</li><li>We expect industrywide headwinds to continue in 2H24 but we believe investors could turn a bit more positive on Meidong’s FY25 outlook given removal of the convertible bond (CB) burden and a new NEV model cycle for BMW.</li><li>We project 1H24E net profit to be RMB43mn assuming no significant impairment. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Maintain BUY. Despite strong headwinds that dealers faced, we still project Meidong’s 1H24 net profit to be positive with subsidies from Porsche and Lexus.We expect industrywide headwinds to continue in 2H24 but we believe investors could turn a bit more positive on Meidong’s FY25 outlook given removal of the convertible bond (CB) burden and a new NEV model cycle for BMW.We project 1H24E net profit to be RMB43mn assuming no significant impairment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meidong Auto (1268 HK) - We Expect 1H24 to Be Still Profitable

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for ICBC (1398 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for ICBC (1398 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 19th): ICBC, China Hongqiao

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 21st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 21st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 21st): BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (9690 HK)</a> was listed in Hong Kong on 26th Sept 2023 after raising US$151m. The IPO had been a 100% primary offering.</li>
<li>Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.</li>
<li>Trading with a very small float of 1.8%, in its upcoming six-month lockup expiry, &gt;90% of Tuhu’s pre-IPO investors, cornerstones and management combined stakes will come off six-month lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>



Tuhu Car (9690 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 26th Sept 2023 after raising US$151m. The IPO had been a 100% primary offering.
Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
Trading with a very small float of 1.8%, in its upcoming six-month lockup expiry, &gt;90% of Tuhu’s pre-IPO investors, cornerstones and management combined stakes will come off six-month lockup expiry.


Tuhu Car Lock-Up Expiry - Would Need Some Selling to Improve Liquidity when US$1.5bn Comes Unlocked

China

China MeiDong Auto is a multi-franchise automobile dealership group operating in the People's Republic of China, focusing on luxury and mid-to-high-end brands such as Porsche, BMW, Lexus, and Toyota. The company's core activities include the sale of new passenger cars and spare parts, along with comprehensive after-sales services, value-added services, and used vehicle trading. Founded in 2003, its headquarters are located in Dongguan, China.

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China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 78 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 57 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Meidong Auto (1268 HK) - We Expect 1H24 to Be Still Profitable

Maintain BUY. Despite strong headwinds that dealers faced, we still project Meidong’s 1H24 net profit to be positive with subsidies from Porsche...

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 19th): ICBC, China Hongqiao

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for ICBC (1398 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 21st): BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tuhu Car Lock-Up Expiry - Would Need Some Selling to Improve Liquidity when US$1.5bn Comes Unlocked

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 26th Sept 2023 after raising US$151m. The IPO had been a 100% primary offering.

Clarence Chu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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