Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>We are convinced container shipping price momentum is waning, medium-term</li>
<li>Not surprisingly, carrier ZIM's share performance correlates to price momentum</li>
<li>Shorting ZIM against Long position in terminal operator isolates sagging price</li>
</ul>


We are convinced container shipping price momentum is waning, medium-term
Not surprisingly, carrier ZIM's share performance correlates to price momentum
Shorting ZIM against Long position in terminal operator isolates sagging price


Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) / Event-Driven

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND had a huge week on a net basis on smallest gross in weeks. Last week I said I expected High-div SOEs to continue being sold. They were sold again.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities saw big buying as a percentage of volume traded. Only China Mobile and CNOOC were net sold. Even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> was bought.</li>
<li>There is clearly a HK Risk On angle to the flows this week and last.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND had a huge week on a net basis on smallest gross in weeks. Last week I said I expected High-div SOEs to continue being sold. They were sold again.
Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities saw big buying as a percentage of volume traded. Only China Mobile and CNOOC were net sold. Even China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) was bought.
There is clearly a HK Risk On angle to the flows this week and last.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Oct 2024); Everything Bought in BIG Week

<ul>
<li>Price momentum in August eased slightly vs July, the first M/M dip since March</li>
<li>In the next two months, seasonality will moderate and Y/Y comps will get tougher</li>
<li>If Q4 momentum wanes, we feel continued strong share performance less likely</li>
</ul>


Price momentum in August eased slightly vs July, the first M/M dip since March
In the next two months, seasonality will moderate and Y/Y comps will get tougher
If Q4 momentum wanes, we feel continued strong share performance less likely


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Strong Price Momentum Likely to Moderate in Q4

<ul>
<li>Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st</li>
<li>But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months</li>
<li>Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they're unlikely to strike</li>
</ul>


Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st
But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months
Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they're unlikely to strike


A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong</li>
<li>But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows</li>
<li>We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade </li>
</ul>


Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong
But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows
We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

Hong Kong

China Merchants Port is a leading global port developer, investor, and operator, primarily engaged in port operations, bonded logistics, and property investment. The company manages container and bulk/general cargo terminals, operates logistics parks, and provides port transportation and airport cargo handling services. It is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1991.

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China Merchants Port (144 HK)

Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

We believe container shipping price momentum is waning. Pairing a short position in carrier ZIM against a long position in terminal operator CMPH...

Tracking Traffic

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Oct 2024); Everything Bought in BIG Week

SOUTHBOUND investors go big this week buying everything but China Mobile and CNOOC. Every sector was positive. This is a risk-on move in large net...

Travis Lundy

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Strong Price Momentum Likely to Moderate in Q4

We believe the strong year-to-date price momentum enjoyed by most container carriers may moderate in Q4, which would make it difficult for some of...

Tracking Traffic

A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

Although workers at US East and Gulf Coast ports could strike in October, for several reasons we believe the impact of a strike will be quite limited.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

In June, price momentum and volume growth remained firm, but in July we've seen some spot rates dip. Mainly due to share price movements, we have...

Tracking Traffic

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