Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>With a 5-week rally <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.</li>
<li>Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.</li>
<li>This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.</li>
</ul>


With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.


China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-mobile-941-hk-tactical-outlook-following-q1-2025-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> indicated a potential buy opportunity immediately followed by higher prices, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> hasn't really rallied much since our signal was released, 2 weeks ago.</li>
<li>Monday, news about a US-China tariffs deal sent global stocks sharply higher. However, the stock closed the day at 84.25, our model's Q2 profit target (i.e. not a strong rally...).
</li>
<li>
Our time model also indicates an overbought state (74% probability of reversal): we're not bearish on the stock, but in this insight we will discuss a few tactical scenarios.</li>
</ul>


Our previous insight indicated a potential buy opportunity immediately followed by higher prices, but China Mobile (941 HK) hasn't really rallied much since our signal was released, 2 weeks ago.
Monday, news about a US-China tariffs deal sent global stocks sharply higher. However, the stock closed the day at 84.25, our model's Q2 profit target (i.e. not a strong rally...).


Our time model also indicates an overbought state (74% probability of reversal): we're not bearish on the stock, but in this insight we will discuss a few tactical scenarios.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A week after the State Council issued "Several Opinions" (关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》), the CSRC <a href="http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c100028/c7474875/content.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Friday five capital market cooperation measures with HK Connect. The goals are to increase cross-border investor flows.</li>
<li>They include: a broader range of ETFs in Connect, including REITs in both directions, include RMB counters in Southbound, improve mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>RMB Dual Counters Southbound-eligible will take time. They have some homework, but it is on the "To Do" list "as soon as possible and smoothly." Watch impact on H/A Pairs.</li>
</ul>


A week after the State Council issued "Several Opinions" (关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》), the CSRC announced Friday five capital market cooperation measures with HK Connect. The goals are to increase cross-border investor flows.
They include: a broader range of ETFs in Connect, including REITs in both directions, include RMB counters in Southbound, improve mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong.
RMB Dual Counters Southbound-eligible will take time. They have some homework, but it is on the "To Do" list "as soon as possible and smoothly." Watch impact on H/A Pairs.


RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming - This Changes AH Relationships

<ul>
<li>In March, the HK Secretary for Financial Services announced a waiver of stamp duty on dual counter trading market making. In November, the Govt of HK <a href="https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202211/18/P2022111800254.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gazetted</a> a bill.</li>
<li>HKEX launched plans in December. 9 large HK names announced in March they'd apply (Tencent, Kuaishou, Geely, BOC, Anta, AIA, China Resources Beer, Bidu, HKEX). Six more in April.</li>
<li>All the announcements are similar. But one on 21 April caught my eye because it is a big H/A with strong southbound support. That's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In March, the HK Secretary for Financial Services announced a waiver of stamp duty on dual counter trading market making. In November, the Govt of HK gazetted a bill.
HKEX launched plans in December. 9 large HK names announced in March they'd apply (Tencent, Kuaishou, Geely, BOC, Anta, AIA, China Resources Beer, Bidu, HKEX). Six more in April.
All the announcements are similar. But one on 21 April caught my eye because it is a big H/A with strong southbound support. That's China Mobile (941 HK). 


Another Reason To Like China Mobile (941 HK)

<ul>
<li>On April 22, 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations. </li>
<li>The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low &lt;80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.</li>
<li>Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit). </li>
</ul>


On April 22, 2025, China Mobile (941 HK) reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations. 
The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low &lt;80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.
Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit). 


China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook Following Q1 2025 Results

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Mobile Ltd Spon Adr (CHL US)

China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

China Mobile (941 HK) is overbought and may see a pullback, creating an opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.

Gaudenz Schneider

China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook

China Mobile (941 HK) has closed up 5 weeks in a row and reached past 88, the WEEKLY probability of reversal (combining time+price model) is 89.5%....

Nico Rosti

RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming - This Changes AH Relationships

1 year+ after the CSRC said it was working towards expanding HKD RMB dual counter trading in HK, making RMB counters eligible, last month through...

Travis Lundy

Another Reason To Like China Mobile (941 HK)

China Mobile remains cheap as it likely has more dividend payout ratio upside as per the plans when the A-shares were listed. Now we are on track...

Travis Lundy

China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook Following Q1 2025 Results

China Mobile (941 HK) Q1 2025 earnings were positive but investors reacted with mild disappointment. This pullback could be a tactical buy-the-dip...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

​China Mobile (941 HK) is overbought and may see a pullback, creating an opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.

Gaudenz Schneider

China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook

China Mobile (941 HK) has closed up 5 weeks in a row and reached past 88, the WEEKLY probability of reversal (combining time+price model) is 89.5%....

Nico Rosti

RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming - This Changes AH Relationships

1 year+ after the CSRC said it was working towards expanding HKD RMB dual counter trading in HK, making RMB counters eligible, last month through...

Travis Lundy

Another Reason To Like China Mobile (941 HK)

China Mobile remains cheap as it likely has more dividend payout ratio upside as per the plans when the A-shares were listed. Now we are on track...

Travis Lundy

China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook Following Q1 2025 Results

​China Mobile (941 HK) Q1 2025 earnings were positive but investors reacted with mild disappointment. This pullback could be a tactical buy-the-dip...

Nico Rosti

China Mobile (941 HK) is overbought and may see a pullback, creating an opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.

China Mobile (941 HK) Q1 2025 earnings were positive but investors reacted with mild disappointment. This pullback could be a tactical buy-the-dip...