IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/china-mobile-explores-acquiring-hong-kong-telecom-firm-hkbn-sources-2023-04-18/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> is exploring a potential buyout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>. The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. </li>
<li>To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.</li>
<li>PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.</li>
</ul>



Reuters reported that China Mobile (600941 CH) is exploring a potential buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. 
To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.
PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.</li>
<li>At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the event in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>


On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn
We have covered the background of the event in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the recent updates.


Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$17bn Overhang Is Here - Not All Shares in CCASS, Here We Go Again!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

China Unicom Hong Kong / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rapid adoption of cloud computing has led to China boasting the world’s second-largest cloud computing market.</li>
<li>This migration to the cloud is in lock-step with global customer needs: scale, greater efficiency, and availability; together with a reduction in capex and infrastructure complexity.</li>
<li>The big three PRC telcos are firmly in the mix, with each announcing 100%+ growth in revenue for their cloud businesses in 1H22. Expect that trend to continue.</li>
</ul>


The rapid adoption of cloud computing has led to China boasting the world’s second-largest cloud computing market.
This migration to the cloud is in lock-step with global customer needs: scale, greater efficiency, and availability; together with a reduction in capex and infrastructure complexity.
The big three PRC telcos are firmly in the mix, with each announcing 100%+ growth in revenue for their cloud businesses in 1H22. Expect that trend to continue.


Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

Incorporated in Beijing in July 2014, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> is a state-owned telecommunications company that provides telecommunications tower construction, tower maintenance, ancillary facilities management and related services in China. 
As at 31 December 2020, China Tower operated and managed 2.023 million tower sites and its total assets were RMB337.4 billion, and it was therefore commonly known as the world's largest telecommunications tower infrastructure service provider. 
Amid aggressive 5G rollout in China in 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> was initially poised to be a key beneficiary of the 5G secular growth story. Instead, its share price performance has significantly underperformed both the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and its telecommunication tower infrastructure peers listed internationally over the past 12 to 18 months. 
This was attributed to <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/5G-networks/Chinese-telecom-operators-cut-back-5G-network-construction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weaker</a> than expected 5G-related demand for new towers, which was in turn due to a combination of factors, such as:
<ol>
<li>slower than expected 5G adoption;</li>
<li>China telecom operators, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and new entrant China Broadcast Network, striking partnerships to share network frequency bands; and </li>
<li>where possible, China telecom operators opting for co-location of base stations to save tower deployment capital expenditures. </li>
</ol>
In this Insight, we discuss if China Tower is past its trough and whether the upcoming tower lease negotiations in 2022 will become an overhang. Further, we address potential corporate governance concerns given that its major shareholders - that is, the Big 3 China telecom operators - are also its largest customers and therefore have considerable influence on China Tower's business decisions.

Incorporated in Beijing in July 2014, China Tower (788 HK) is a state-owned telecommunications company that provides telecommunications tower construction, tower maintenance, ancillary facilities management and related services in China. 
As at 31 December 2020, China Tower operated and managed 2.023 million tower sites and its total assets were RMB337.4 billion, and it was therefore commonly known as the world's largest telecommunications tower infrastructure service provider. 
Amid aggressive 5G rollout in China in 2020, China Tower (788 HK) was initially poised to be a key beneficiary of the 5G secular growth story. Instead, its share price performance has significantly underperformed both the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and its telecommunication tower infrastructure peers listed internationally over the past 12 to 18 months. 
This was attributed to weaker than expected 5G-related demand for new towers, which was in turn due to a combination of factors, such as:

slower than expected 5G adoption;
China telecom operators, namely China Telecom (H) (728 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK), China Mobile (941 HK) and new entrant China Broadcast Network, striking partnerships to share network frequency bands; and 
where possible, China telecom operators opting for co-location of base stations to save tower deployment capital expenditures. 

In this Insight, we discuss if China Tower is past its trough and whether the upcoming tower lease negotiations in 2022 will become an overhang. Further, we address potential corporate governance concerns given that its major shareholders - that is, the Big 3 China telecom operators - are also its largest customers and therefore have considerable influence on China Tower's business decisions. 

China Tower (788 HK) - Deep Value, Though Lease Negotiation Overhang Persists

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, Xiaomi, HSTECH ETF, CNOOC, ICBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, Xiaomi, HSTECH ETF, CNOOC, ICBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Alibaba, Xiaomi

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.

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China Mobile Ltd Spon Adr (CHL US)

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme...

Arun George

Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$17bn Overhang Is Here - Not All Shares in CCASS, Here We Go Again!

On 16th Nov 22, Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan. The settlement was...

Sumeet Singh

China Telcos: Send In The Clouds

At 1x forward EV/EBITDA and a 5.6% yield, Unicom is cheap. I don't have a bone to pick with Mobile at 2.1x and a 7.9% yield; or Telecom - but...

David Blennerhassett

China Tower (788 HK) - Deep Value, Though Lease Negotiation Overhang Persists

We discuss whether China Tower's share price has bottomed and address potential corporate governance concerns given that the Big 3 China telcos...

Jason Yap, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Alibaba, Xiaomi

We estimate inflows into Hong Kong stocks via Southbound connect scheme amount to USD 17.7 bn in November. Inflows were led by Alibaba, Xiaomi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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