Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 20 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.</p><p>For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.</p><p>In line with our forecasts, the inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>. </p><p>One-way turnover is estimated at 6.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4.84bn. Following an increase in the index shares and no change in the capping factor at the July monthly rebalance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s weight will be capped at 8% leading to outflows from the stock.</p><p>There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> was a forecast inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> but was not expected to be included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. Passive trackers across both indices will need to buy over 3 days of ADV on the stock and the stock could open higher on Monday.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> is down 38% from its IPO price and the index inclusion could act as a support in the short term. Short selling commenced a few weeks back and shorts have piled in rapidly.</p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 20 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.In line with our forecasts, the inclusions are JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) while the deletions are Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) and Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK). One-way turnover is estimated at 6.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4.84bn. Following an increase in the index shares and no change in the capping factor at the July monthly rebalance, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s weight will be capped at 8% leading to outflows from the stock.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes.Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) was a forecast inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) but was not expected to be included in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). Passive trackers across both indices will need to buy over 3 days of ADV on the stock and the stock could open higher on Monday.JD Logistics (2618 HK) is down 38% from its IPO price and the index inclusion could act as a support in the short term. Short selling commenced a few weeks back and shorts have piled in rapidly.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Li Ning's Double Inclusion; Alibaba Capping Leads to High Turnover

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Evergrande, Kerry Logistics, Milton, CBA, NTT

<div>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">This is the latest update in a series dating back to <em><a href="https://skr.ma/c7hcH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Legend's Conversion of Domestic Shares</a></em> in June 2018.</p>
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<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">To date, 28 companies have sought approval to convert their domestic shares and/or unlisted foreign shares into H shares, which would then be eligible to be listed and traded on Hong Kong's stock exchange.</p>
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<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">16 companies have now been given CSRC and Hong Kong listing approval to convert such shares. Five of those have seen various degrees of movement in the converted shares.</p>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056=""><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-languang-justbon-service-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28337:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK)</a> received approval late last year but did not convert - and was subsequently subject to an Offer. </p>
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<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">To date, two companies have withdrawn their application to convert their domestic shares.  Both of these companies have now been subject to Offers.</p>
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<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">As always, more below the fold. </p>
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This is the latest update in a series dating back to Legend's Conversion of Domestic Shares in June 2018.


To date, 28 companies have sought approval to convert their domestic shares and/or unlisted foreign shares into H shares, which would then be eligible to be listed and traded on Hong Kong's stock exchange.


16 companies have now been given CSRC and Hong Kong listing approval to convert such shares. Five of those have seen various degrees of movement in the converted shares.
Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) received approval late last year but did not convert - and was subsequently subject to an Offer. 


To date, two companies have withdrawn their application to convert their domestic shares.  Both of these companies have now been subject to Offers.


As always, more below the fold. 


Full Circulation Of H-Shares: July 2021 Update

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) should announce the results of the September 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 13 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.</p><p>The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 June and stocks that have at least 1 month of trading history by that date are eligible for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</p><p>At the September review, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> being included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (9626 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a> are close adds.</p><p>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.78% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$1.86bn.</p><p>The expected inclusions will have a higher index weight and a lower dividend yield as compared to the expected exclusions and this could push the HSCEI 2022 dividends and the 2021/22 steepener lower.</p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) should announce the results of the September 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 13 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 June and stocks that have at least 1 month of trading history by that date are eligible for inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).At the September review, we see JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) being included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), replacing Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) and Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK).Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Bilibili Inc (9626 HK) and Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) are close adds.Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.78% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$1.86bn.The expected inclusions will have a higher index weight and a lower dividend yield as compared to the expected exclusions and this could push the HSCEI 2022 dividends and the 2021/22 steepener lower.

HSCEI Sep 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: JD Logistics, Li Ning Are Potential Adds

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We take the FY21 guidances for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> positively and believe they are more important than the FY20 result. In fact, despite a slowdown from 40-50% YoY growth in the previous two years, Conch Venture's 24.6% growth in its core environmental business in FY20 is still a very decent show under a COVID-19 impacted situation.</p><p>Conch Venture is expecting 76% growth in solid waste treatment volume and a 65% growth in municipal waste treated in its waste incineration business in FY21, on the back of capacity completion. We believe such volume growth should easily support over 80% surge in core environment profit in this year. Its solid project pipeline will further ensure growth beyond FY21. Adding low gearing and undemanding valuation multiples, Conch Venture is well placed in China's environment sector. </p>

We take the FY21 guidances for China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) positively and believe they are more important than the FY20 result. In fact, despite a slowdown from 40-50% YoY growth in the previous two years, Conch Venture's 24.6% growth in its core environmental business in FY20 is still a very decent show under a COVID-19 impacted situation.Conch Venture is expecting 76% growth in solid waste treatment volume and a 65% growth in municipal waste treated in its waste incineration business in FY21, on the back of capacity completion. We believe such volume growth should easily support over 80% surge in core environment profit in this year. Its solid project pipeline will further ensure growth beyond FY21. Adding low gearing and undemanding valuation multiples, Conch Venture is well placed in China's environment sector. 

Conch Venture (586 HK): Still Very Well Placed

China

China National Building Material is a state-owned enterprise primarily engaged in the production and sale of building materials, including cement, concrete, new materials like glass fiber and composite materials, and engineering technology services. It is recognized as a leading global producer in several of these segments. The company is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China, and was founded in 1984.

China National Building Material (3323 HK)

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China National Building Material (3323 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Li Ning's Double Inclusion; Alibaba Capping Leads to High Turnover

Li Ning and JD Logistics have been added to the HSCEI while Anhui Conch and Shimao Prop have been deleted. Alibaba's weight in the index will be...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Evergrande, Kerry Logistics, Milton, CBA, NTT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Full Circulation Of H-Shares: July 2021 Update

CSRC circulation approval is an endorsement of the existing internal framework of the company. There also does appear to be some degree of...

David Blennerhassett

HSCEI Sep 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: JD Logistics, Li Ning Are Potential Adds

There could be 2 sets of changes to the HSCEI at the September review with JD Logistics and Li Ning being included and Shimao Property and Anhui...

Brian Freitas

Conch Venture (586 HK): Still Very Well Placed

Conch Venture's core environmental profit will grow by at least 80% in FY21, based on guidances for solid waste and waste incineration volume. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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