Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.</li>
<li>We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.</li>
</ul>


We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.
We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.


Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>20 Trillion RMB Vaporized: Wealth evaporated via marginal pricing. Physical cash is permanently trapped in non-yielding municipal concrete, structurally destroying the foundation of middle-class retail consumption.</li>
<li>The Full-Recourse Trap: Draconian mortgage laws and severe social blacklists force panicked household deleveraging, locking China into a permanent deflationary balance sheet recession with no exit mechanism.</li>
<li>SHORT Longfor Group (960 HK): The private survivor is a value trap masking negative development margins, shrinking cash flows, and severe exposure to a retail consumption downgrade.</li>
</ul>


20 Trillion RMB Vaporized: Wealth evaporated via marginal pricing. Physical cash is permanently trapped in non-yielding municipal concrete, structurally destroying the foundation of middle-class retail consumption.
The Full-Recourse Trap: Draconian mortgage laws and severe social blacklists force panicked household deleveraging, locking China into a permanent deflationary balance sheet recession with no exit mechanism.
SHORT Longfor Group (960 HK): The private survivor is a value trap masking negative development margins, shrinking cash flows, and severe exposure to a retail consumption downgrade.


Anatomy of an Implosion: Recourse Traps, Capital Destruction & The Longfor Short

Equity Bottom-Up

China Overseas Land & Investment / Equity Bottom-Up

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

<ul>
<li>State-Owned developers are seizing market share. COLI sales surged 13.9% yoy, while Longfor collapsed 52.1%, permanently shifting industry dominance.</li>
<li>COLI accesses unprecedented liquidity, issuing bonds below the prime rate, while Longfor faces critical refinancing risks and relies heavily on pledged commercial assets.</li>
<li>This pair trade captures the inevitable valuation gap expansion, fully immune to sector volatility, as zero-bankruptcy-risk state entities permanently outprice distressed private operators.</li>
</ul>


State-Owned developers are seizing market share. COLI sales surged 13.9% yoy, while Longfor collapsed 52.1%, permanently shifting industry dominance.
COLI accesses unprecedented liquidity, issuing bonds below the prime rate, while Longfor faces critical refinancing risks and relies heavily on pledged commercial assets.
This pair trade captures the inevitable valuation gap expansion, fully immune to sector volatility, as zero-bankruptcy-risk state entities permanently outprice distressed private operators.


Ultimate Real Estate Arbitrage: Capturing the Sovereign Premium Through LONG COLI / SHORT LONGFOR

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: The Gray Market Behind a Cross-Border Investing Boom</li><li>In the summer of 2026, two cross-border investment blowups rattled investors from the Chinese mainland to Hong Kong and landed on the desks of Hong Kong police investigators.</li><li>Chinese Retail Rush for U.S. Tech Stocks Drains Fresh Offshore Quotas</li></ul>

Cover Story: The Gray Market Behind a Cross-Border Investing BoomIn the summer of 2026, two cross-border investment blowups rattled investors from the Chinese mainland to Hong Kong and landed on the desks of Hong Kong police investigators.Chinese Retail Rush for U.S. Tech Stocks Drains Fresh Offshore Quotas

CX Daily: The Gray Market Behind a Cross-Border Investing Boom 

<ul>
<li>Sticky US inflation: Core CPI forces an 85% probability of a Fed rate hike, fundamentally shifting global liquidity and ending hopes of an imminent easing cycle.</li>
<li>Divergent APAC impacts: Hong Kong and Australia face severe cap rate pressures, while Japan and China offer isolated growth driven by local monetary autonomy and inbound tourism.</li>
<li>Strategic rotation: Short vulnerable retail assets like Link REIT facing structural decay, and go long on resilient cash-flow generators including CapitaLand Ascendas REIT and Japan Hotel REIT.</li>
</ul>


Sticky US inflation: Core CPI forces an 85% probability of a Fed rate hike, fundamentally shifting global liquidity and ending hopes of an imminent easing cycle.
Divergent APAC impacts: Hong Kong and Australia face severe cap rate pressures, while Japan and China offer isolated growth driven by local monetary autonomy and inbound tourism.
Strategic rotation: Short vulnerable retail assets like Link REIT facing structural decay, and go long on resilient cash-flow generators including CapitaLand Ascendas REIT and Japan Hotel REIT.


Yield Shock: Navigating the 85% Fed Hike Probability in APAC Real Estate

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment is a Hong Kong-based real estate conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and sales, property investment, and property management services. The company develops residential and commercial properties, including office buildings, shopping malls, and hotels. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1979.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

HSCEI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect Shenzhou to be deleted below rank 60 and Hua Hong Grace to fill its seat, while a mid-conviction WuXi Bio ADD would also see ZTO deleted.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Anatomy of an Implosion: Recourse Traps, Capital Destruction & The Longfor Short

20 Trillion RMB Vaporized: Wealth evaporated. Physical cash is permanently trapped in non-yielding municipal concrete, structurally destroying the...

Jacob Cheng

Ultimate Real Estate Arbitrage: Capturing the Sovereign Premium Through LONG COLI / SHORT LONGFOR

COLI (+33%) has outperformed Longfor (-9%) in 2026 YTD. We think SOE will continue to outperform POEs, due to market share change. COLI 5M 2026...

Jacob Cheng

CX Daily: The Gray Market Behind a Cross-Border Investing Boom

Cover Story: The Gray Market Behind a Cross-Border Investing Boom In the summer of 2026, two cross-border investment blowups rattled...

Caixin Global

Yield Shock: Navigating the 85% Fed Hike Probability in APAC Real Estate

Core CPI forces an 85% probability of a Fed rate hike, fundamentally shifting global liquidity and ending hopes of an imminent easing cycle. The...

Jacob Cheng

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)