Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Regulators pivot from de-leveraging to ruthless accountability, hitting Shimao executives with severe fines and market bans for fraudulent financial cover-ups, cementing the death of high-leverage private developers.</li>
<li>State-Owned developers like COLI now wield an unbreakable monopoly, exploiting implicit state guarantees, record-low borrowing costs, and structural protections that permanently eliminate bankruptcy risk.</li>
<li>Initiate BUY on COLI (688 HK): As private peers face liquidations, COLI accelerates market share, posting massive double-digit YoY sales growth while rivals bleed revenue.</li>
</ul>


Regulators pivot from de-leveraging to ruthless accountability, hitting Shimao executives with severe fines and market bans for fraudulent financial cover-ups, cementing the death of high-leverage private developers.
State-Owned developers like COLI now wield an unbreakable monopoly, exploiting implicit state guarantees, record-low borrowing costs, and structural protections that permanently eliminate bankruptcy risk.
Initiate BUY on COLI (688 HK): As private peers face liquidations, COLI accelerates market share, posting massive double-digit YoY sales growth while rivals bleed revenue.


The Accountability Era: Shimao's Fall Signals an SOE Monopoly—BUY COLI

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57% to 75% since its inception in 10/2024.</li>
<li>The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.37 since its inception, with a mean excess annualized return of 21% and a beta of 1.2.  </li>
<li>At the end of May, we sold our remaining positions in the mining and materials sectors and added positions in the power, consumer and property sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57% to 75% since its inception in 10/2024.
The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.37 since its inception, with a mean excess annualized return of 21% and a beta of 1.2.  
At the end of May, we sold our remaining positions in the mining and materials sectors and added positions in the power, consumer and property sectors.


<ul>
<li>Evergrande’s Hui pleading guilty triggers the final purge of private property excess. Offshore recovery is anchored near zero; shadow financing is officially criminalized, suffocating private developers' capital access.</li>
<li>With the political overhang removed, Beijing is unleashing a 20-trillion-yuan urban renewal stimulus. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are aggressively monopolizing market share and prime land banks in tier-one cities.</li>
<li>Long COLI (688 HK). As the apex SOE, it boasts unmatched tier-one dominance, a fortress balance sheet, and a massively dislocated 9.4x P/E valuation yielding 4.4%. A generational asymmetric buy.</li>
</ul>


Evergrande’s Hui pleading guilty triggers the final purge of private property excess. Offshore recovery is anchored near zero; shadow financing is officially criminalized, suffocating private developers' capital access.
With the political overhang removed, Beijing is unleashing a 20-trillion-yuan urban renewal stimulus. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are aggressively monopolizing market share and prime land banks in tier-one cities.
Long COLI (688 HK). As the apex SOE, it boasts unmatched tier-one dominance, a fortress balance sheet, and a massively dislocated 9.4x P/E valuation yielding 4.4%. A generational asymmetric buy.


Death of Shadow Developer: Evergrande Xu's Guilty Plea Clear Runway for SOE Monopoly. Buy COLI 688HK

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. </li>
<li>The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.</li>
<li>Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. 
The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.
Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.


14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul><li>Brookfield plans to acquire the Dentsu Tokyo headquarters from Hulic for a total of $1.9 billion.</li><li>Gaw and GreenFort are considering the sale of their retirement living platform, Reside Communities.</li><li>Macquarie's UIB REIT has invested $158 million in a stake in the Metro Fund amid market changes.</li></ul>

Brookfield plans to acquire the Dentsu Tokyo headquarters from Hulic for a total of $1.9 billion.Gaw and GreenFort are considering the sale of their retirement living platform, Reside Communities.Macquarie's UIB REIT has invested $158 million in a stake in the Metro Fund amid market changes.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Feb-2026): Brookfield to acquire Dentsu's Tokyo HQ for $1.9B

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment is a Hong Kong-based real estate conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and sales, property investment, and property management services. The company develops residential and commercial properties, including office buildings, shopping malls, and hotels. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1979.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

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China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

The Accountability Era: Shimao's Fall Signals an SOE Monopoly—BUY COLI

Regulators pivot from de-leveraging to ruthless accountability, hitting Shimao mgmt fines and market bans for fraudulent financial cover-ups,...

Jacob Cheng

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (May 2026)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57%...

David Mudd

Death of Shadow Developer: Evergrande Xu's Guilty Plea Clear Runway for SOE Monopoly. Buy COLI 688HK

We think Evergrande's Xu guilty plea has significant implications to China property - status of offshore recovery, ban of shadow financing and...

Jacob Cheng

14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

We share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped...

Robert Ciemniak

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Feb-2026): Brookfield to acquire Dentsu's Tokyo HQ for $1.9B

Brookfield will acquire Dentsu's Tokyo HQ for $1.9B, while Gaw and GreenFort consider selling Reside Communities, and Macquarie's UIB REIT buys a...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

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