Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.</li>
<li>China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.</li>
<li>China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.</li>
</ul>


AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.
China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.
China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.


Equity Bottom-Up

AAC Technologies Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong continued a correction in its Bull market which has lifted the HSCEI to be the best performing Asian index this year.  Southboune buying is strong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> share price had a breakout relative to the MSCI AC Asia Index.  The company reported solid results benifitting from the smartphone and auto sectors.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58:1" rel="noopener">CGN Power (1816 HK)</a> share price relative to MSCI China broke down.  The company reported a disappointing 3Q24 results even as power generation increased by 15% YoY for the period.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong continued a correction in its Bull market which has lifted the HSCEI to be the best performing Asian index this year.  Southboune buying is strong.

AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) share price had a breakout relative to the MSCI AC Asia Index.  The company reported solid results benifitting from the smartphone and auto sectors.


CGN Power (1816 HK) share price relative to MSCI China broke down.  The company reported a disappointing 3Q24 results even as power generation increased by 15% YoY for the period.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 25)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Rmb10.8bn acquisition of clean energy assets from parent by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> is positive in raising its clean energy proportion to over 70% of total capacity.</li>
<li>The drop in share price reflects concerns about elevation of gearing and the need for potential equity funding. However, even all equity financing scenario will only dilute EPS by 1%.</li>
<li>We think its earnings quality will improve, balance sheet will be enhanced and profitability will be raised. Its 1H23 positive profit alert also showed a recovery in operational performance. </li>
</ul>


The Rmb10.8bn acquisition of clean energy assets from parent by China Power International (2380 HK) is positive in raising its clean energy proportion to over 70% of total capacity.
The drop in share price reflects concerns about elevation of gearing and the need for potential equity funding. However, even all equity financing scenario will only dilute EPS by 1%.
We think its earnings quality will improve, balance sheet will be enhanced and profitability will be raised. Its 1H23 positive profit alert also showed a recovery in operational performance. 


China Power International (2380 HK): A Major Move to Raise Clean Energy Exposure

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> will enjoy another year of strong earnings improvement in FY23, as coal-fired segment returns to profit and new energy capacity drives growth.</li>
<li>Solar and wind capacity will increase 66.5% and 23.1%, respectively, raising new energy's proportion to over 70%. Profitability for hydropower also looks to recover in this year.</li>
<li>There is huge room for asset injection from SPIC given the parent's new energy capacity of 139GW, with only 20GW in CPI. Its FY23 PER of 8.4x PER is attractive. </li>
</ul>



China Power International (2380 HK) will enjoy another year of strong earnings improvement in FY23, as coal-fired segment returns to profit and new energy capacity drives growth.
Solar and wind capacity will increase 66.5% and 23.1%, respectively, raising new energy's proportion to over 70%. Profitability for hydropower also looks to recover in this year.
There is huge room for asset injection from SPIC given the parent's new energy capacity of 139GW, with only 20GW in CPI. Its FY23 PER of 8.4x PER is attractive. 


China Power International (2380 HK): This Will Be a Rewarding Year

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the last 4 weeks, the HSI constituents with the highest yields have gained 3-4%, while the lowest-yielding ones have lost an average of 4%. </li>
<li>The top 15 high-yield constituents will deliver an average yield of 6.2% for FY26. The number increased to 25 when we include those at over 5%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets Holdings (6 HK)</a> also have net cash. </li>
</ul>


In the last 4 weeks, the HSI constituents with the highest yields have gained 3-4%, while the lowest-yielding ones have lost an average of 4%. 
The top 15 high-yield constituents will deliver an average yield of 6.2% for FY26. The number increased to 25 when we include those at over 5%.

China Mobile (941 HK), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK), and Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) also have net cash. 


Hong Kong

China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited is a power generation company. The Company invests, develops, owns, and operates coal-fired power plants in China.

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China Resources Power (836 HK)

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David Mudd

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David Mudd

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Osbert Tang, CFA

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FY23 will be an exciting year for CPI as coal-fired, wind & solar, hydro and new innovation segments will all see better profitability. Potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Focusing Back on Yields

High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CHINA: Do You Like AI? BUY Utilities!

GDS Holdings announced that is considering an IPO for a REIT of its data center assets in China which could happen next year. The share sale could...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 25)

Southbound buying in HK continued strong with Value Factor providing the best returns.AAC Tech share price had a break out as it provided strong...

David Mudd

China Power International (2380 HK): A Major Move to Raise Clean Energy Exposure

CPI's Rmb10.8bn acquisition from its parent will make clean energy reach 70% of total capacity. The move will enhance earnings by 10% and an all...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Power International (2380 HK): This Will Be a Rewarding Year

FY23 will be an exciting year for CPI as coal-fired, wind & solar, hydro and new innovation segments will all see better profitability. Potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Focusing Back on Yields

​High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...