Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) / Event-Driven

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND had a huge week on a net basis on smallest gross in weeks. Last week I said I expected High-div SOEs to continue being sold. They were sold again.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities saw big buying as a percentage of volume traded. Only China Mobile and CNOOC were net sold. Even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> was bought.</li>
<li>There is clearly a HK Risk On angle to the flows this week and last.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND had a huge week on a net basis on smallest gross in weeks. Last week I said I expected High-div SOEs to continue being sold. They were sold again.
Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities saw big buying as a percentage of volume traded. Only China Mobile and CNOOC were net sold. Even China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) was bought.
There is clearly a HK Risk On angle to the flows this week and last.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Oct 2024); Everything Bought in BIG Week

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cemex-holdings-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22700:1" rel="noopener">Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP PM)</a> low-balled MTO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphb-capital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8540:1" rel="noopener">MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals discussed this week: Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP PM) low-balled MTO.
Key updates took place on: Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), MPHB Capital (MPHB MK), and Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: CEMEX, Fuji Soft, Shinko Electric, CPMC, MPHB Capital, Dyna Mac

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1024/2024102401219.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has no further comment on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology (002701 CH)</a>'s MAR report, and therefore that specific pre=condition has been fulfilled. </li>
<li>ORG will now hold an general meeting on the 11th November for shareholders to vote on the Offer for CPMC - this should be a two-thirds majority vote. </li>
<li>The pre-cons long stop date is the 6th January. Should all go to plan, you could be looking at late Janaury 2025 payment.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has announced that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has no further comment on ORG Technology (002701 CH)'s MAR report, and therefore that specific pre=condition has been fulfilled. 
ORG will now hold an general meeting on the 11th November for shareholders to vote on the Offer for CPMC - this should be a two-thirds majority vote. 
The pre-cons long stop date is the 6th January. Should all go to plan, you could be looking at late Janaury 2025 payment.


CPMC (906 HK): ORG Ticks Off Another Pre-Con

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At first glance, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.</li>
<li>The aftermath of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. </li>
<li>Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.</li>
</ul>


At first glance, the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.
The aftermath of China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. 
Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>The “industry clearing”  of innovative drug companies is far longer and more brutal than imagined. But Chinese innovative drug ecosystem will ultimately usher in a better innovation pattern in the future.</li>
<li>For every innovative pharmaceutical company with ambitious goals, globalization is a “must option”. With more and more Chinese biotech achieving success, the internationalization prospects will become better and better.</li>
<li>China TCM’s privatization failure made us realize large SOEs we always believe in would violate their commitments to market/investors.Now, we need to get back to the fundamentals to minimize losses.</li>
</ul>


The “industry clearing”  of innovative drug companies is far longer and more brutal than imagined. But Chinese innovative drug ecosystem will ultimately usher in a better innovation pattern in the future.
For every innovative pharmaceutical company with ambitious goals, globalization is a “must option”. With more and more Chinese biotech achieving success, the internationalization prospects will become better and better.
China TCM’s privatization failure made us realize large SOEs we always believe in would violate their commitments to market/investors.Now, we need to get back to the fundamentals to minimize losses.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-A Big Lesson from China TCM's Deal Break, “Must Option” of Biotech

Hong Kong

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings Co. Ltd. is an investment holding company engaged in the research, development, production, and sale of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and pharmaceutical products. It offers concentrated TCM granules, healthcare products, decoction pieces, and finished drugs, as well as Chinese medical healthcare solutions. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Oct 2024); Everything Bought in BIG Week

SOUTHBOUND investors go big this week buying everything but China Mobile and CNOOC. Every sector was positive. This is a risk-on move in large net...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: CEMEX, Fuji Soft, Shinko Electric, CPMC, MPHB Capital, Dyna Mac

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

CPMC (906 HK): ORG Ticks Off Another Pre-Con

Assuming mid-late Jan 2025 payment, this is trading at a gross/annualised spread of 4.9%/21.6%. That's out from a gross spread of 3.9% this time...

David Blennerhassett

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

The aftermath of the China TCM deal break has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-A Big Lesson from China TCM's Deal Break, “Must Option” of Biotech

The break of China TCM’s privatization deal has taught us an important lesson.Globalization is a “must option”. The “industry clearing” of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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