Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May 22-28, 2026

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. </li>
<li>The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.</li>
<li>Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. 
The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.
Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.


14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In this note, we compare the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years</li>
<li>In an annual view, several key growth metrics turned less negative, but with a deterioration since September 2025 in the monthly data</li>
<li>January-February macro-property data from NBS is due in the middle of March</li>
</ul>


In this note, we compare the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years
In an annual view, several key growth metrics turned less negative, but with a deterioration since September 2025 in the monthly data
January-February macro-property data from NBS is due in the middle of March


China Property: Full Year 2025 In Context - In 12 Charts

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul>
<li>Brookfield and GIC have finalized a significant $2.6 billion acquisition of National Storage in Australia.</li>
<li>NextDC has formed a partnership with OpenAI to develop a new data center campus in Sydney, enhancing tech infrastructure.</li>
<li>Vanke is seeking a second extension for its $524 million onshore bond note, indicating ongoing financial strategies.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield and GIC have finalized a significant $2.6 billion acquisition of National Storage in Australia.
NextDC has formed a partnership with OpenAI to develop a new data center campus in Sydney, enhancing tech infrastructure.
Vanke is seeking a second extension for its $524 million onshore bond note, indicating ongoing financial strategies.


Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-Dec-2025): Brookfield and GIC Buy Australia's National Storage

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Sep 25th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, real estate, materials and offset by industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Sep 25th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, real estate, materials and offset by industrials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 25th): Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc

China

China Vanke is a prominent real estate developer primarily focused on residential property sales, and is among the top three in China. The company has expanded its business to include investment properties such as commercial retail complexes, long-term leasing apartments, and logistical assets, alongside property management services. Founded in 1984, China Vanke is headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.

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China Vanke (2202 HK)

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May 22-28, 2026

This note is a weekly (May 22-28, 2026; select weeks on SK) curation by Real Estate Foresight (REF) of Chinese news articles and company...

Robert Ciemniak

14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

We share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Full Year 2025 In Context - In 12 Charts

In this short note, we compare key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years, looking at new home sales, prices, new...

Robert Ciemniak

Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-Dec-2025): Brookfield and GIC Buy Australia's National Storage

Brookfield and GIC acquired Australia's National Storage for $2.6 billion, while NextDC partnered with OpenAI for a Sydney data center, and Vanke...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 25th): Innocare Pharma, Vgt, ABC, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare Pharma, Victory Giant Technology, ABC, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)