HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>AIM needs to rely on both human rabies vaccine and HBV vaccine to contribute majority revenue,but the outlook is challenging. Their revenue would decline due to competition and product upgrading.</li>
<li>Most of AIM’s vaccine candidates are in early development stages. There’re many competing candidates in more advanced development stages.The pipeline lacks competitiveness and it's hard to generate forecasted profits.</li>
<li>Although the issue price is discounted significantly, AIM is still overvalued. Reducing the size of IPO to maintain a good share price doesn’t work. When investors exit,accumulated pressure will explode.</li>
</ul>


AIM needs to rely on both human rabies vaccine and HBV vaccine to contribute majority revenue,but the outlook is challenging. Their revenue would decline due to competition and product upgrading.
Most of AIM’s vaccine candidates are in early development stages. There’re many competing candidates in more advanced development stages.The pipeline lacks competitiveness and it's hard to generate forecasted profits.
Although the issue price is discounted significantly, AIM is still overvalued. Reducing the size of IPO to maintain a good share price doesn’t work. When investors exit,accumulated pressure will explode.


Pre-IPO AIM Vaccine - AIM Is Overvalued, with Uncompetitive Pipeline and Challenging Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CanSino’s performance declined in 22H1 due to decreased demand of COVID-19 vaccine. Since we have analyzed our concerns on performance in prior insight, there should be psychological expectations for the decline.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 vaccine business brings CanSino rich cash flow and helps it establish commercial team. Together with MCV2/MCV4/mRNA/PCV13i, it's too early to be completely bearish on CanSino.</li>
<li>The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, it is a good time to bottom fish this stock.</li>
</ul>


CanSino’s performance declined in 22H1 due to decreased demand of COVID-19 vaccine. Since we have analyzed our concerns on performance in prior insight, there should be psychological expectations for the decline.
The COVID-19 vaccine business brings CanSino rich cash flow and helps it establish commercial team. Together with MCV2/MCV4/mRNA/PCV13i, it's too early to be completely bearish on CanSino.
The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, it is a good time to bottom fish this stock.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) 2022H1 - It's Too Early to Be Completely Bearish on CanSino

<ul>
<li>We update our forecast on CanSino’s performance in 2022, which could be much lower than that in 2021 due to the concerns on commercialization outlook of COVID-19 vaccine and MCV2/MCV4.</li>
<li>However, due to strong R&amp;D and technology platforms, the value of CanSino's pipeline is higher and its products could become the ceiling of pricing power for other homogeneous competing products.</li>
<li>We still think CanSino has investment value in long term despite the headwinds in short term.The market value by May 6 of HK$18.1 billion (PE/TTM at 7.22) is also attractive.</li>
</ul>


We update our forecast on CanSino’s performance in 2022, which could be much lower than that in 2021 due to the concerns on commercialization outlook of COVID-19 vaccine and MCV2/MCV4.
However, due to strong R&amp;D and technology platforms, the value of CanSino's pipeline is higher and its products could become the ceiling of pricing power for other homogeneous competing products.
We still think CanSino has investment value in long term despite the headwinds in short term.The market value by May 6 of HK$18.1 billion (PE/TTM at 7.22) is also attractive.


CanSino Biologics (688185.CH/6185.HK) -Difficulties in 2022 Cannot Mask Long-Term Investment Value

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products / Equity Bottom-Up

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

<ul>
<li>Under the current policy in China, any minor changes to vaccine doses require a series of clinical data support and registration changes. So, WHO’s recommendation won’t affect Zhifei’s short-term performance.</li>
<li>The increasing domestic competing HPV vaccines in the future would be a big threat to Zhifei’s agency business. Its self-developed products may not be strong enough to compensate. </li>
<li>The performance in 2022 is expected to be solid before real challenge comes in 2024. The valuation logic and outlook won’t be brighten unless there’s new breakthrough in agency business.</li>
</ul>


Under the current policy in China, any minor changes to vaccine doses require a series of clinical data support and registration changes. So, WHO’s recommendation won’t affect Zhifei’s short-term performance.
The increasing domestic competing HPV vaccines in the future would be a big threat to Zhifei’s agency business. Its self-developed products may not be strong enough to compensate. 
The performance in 2022 is expected to be solid before real challenge comes in 2024. The valuation logic and outlook won’t be brighten unless there’s new breakthrough in agency business.


Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - WHO's One-Dose HPV Vaccine Regimen & The Outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Jiangsu Recbio Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>RecBio is an innovative vaccine company with a focus on HPV vaccines. The company is pre-marketing its USD 100-200 million Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>In the previous note, we looked at the company's core products, including its HPV portfolio and the COVID-19 vaccine. Though not impressive, it does provide exposure to China HPV market. </li>
<li>In this insight, we provide our thoughts on valuation, including key assumptions.</li>
</ul>


RecBio is an innovative vaccine company with a focus on HPV vaccines. The company is pre-marketing its USD 100-200 million Hong Kong listing.
In the previous note, we looked at the company's core products, including its HPV portfolio and the COVID-19 vaccine. Though not impressive, it does provide exposure to China HPV market. 
In this insight, we provide our thoughts on valuation, including key assumptions.


RecBio (江苏瑞科) Pre-IPO:  Thoughts on Valuation

China

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

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Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

Pre-IPO AIM Vaccine - AIM Is Overvalued, with Uncompetitive Pipeline and Challenging Outlook

AIM's products/pipeline are lack of competitiveness due to fierce competition and product upgrading, with gloomy outlook. Although the issue price...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) 2022H1 - It's Too Early to Be Completely Bearish on CanSino

The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, considering MCV2...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (688185.CH/6185.HK) -Difficulties in 2022 Cannot Mask Long-Term Investment Value

2022 will be difficult for CanSino. We lowered performance forecast.But due to strong R&D and technology platforms, the value of CanSino's pipeline...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang