Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

<ul>
<li>Below is a sample of the unloved Japanese stocks we focus on at Azabu Research, with key valuation metrics and latest news.</li>
<li>The average PBR in this week’s list is 0.5x and the average P/E is 5.9x.</li>
<li>Most of the stocks in this week’s round up are related to either the auto supply chain or the electric power grid.</li>
</ul>


Below is a sample of the unloved Japanese stocks we focus on at Azabu Research, with key valuation metrics and latest news.
The average PBR in this week’s list is 0.5x and the average P/E is 5.9x.
Most of the stocks in this week’s round up are related to either the auto supply chain or the electric power grid.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, an Indian renewable energy play, announced US$7.07/share NBIO. The bidding consortium subsequently bumped terms to US$8/share on the 3rd July.</li>
<li>After shares traded through terms for a week, the Consortium increased (best &amp; final) non-binding terms to US$8.15/share, a 29% premium to undisturbed. The Offer is via a UK Scheme.</li>
<li>That last bump was on the 10th October. JERA, with 11.7% of shares out, and 25.7% of minorities, is supportive, IF terms are firmed. The Special Committee is still mulling.</li>
</ul>


On the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced US$7.07/share NBIO. The bidding consortium subsequently bumped terms to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
After shares traded through terms for a week, the Consortium increased (best &amp; final) non-binding terms to US$8.15/share, a 29% premium to undisturbed. The Offer is via a UK Scheme.
That last bump was on the 10th October. JERA, with 11.7% of shares out, and 25.7% of minorities, is supportive, IF terms are firmed. The Special Committee is still mulling.


What's Up - Or Rather, Down - With ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)?

<ul>
<li>Back on the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.</li>
<li>ReNew's Special Committee will provide "public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025".
</li>
</ul>


Back on the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.
The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
ReNew's Special Committee will provide "public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025".



ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>No BOJ hike means bonds, banks, yen and insurance down, while defense and nuclear will do well.</li>
<li>She is seen as a China-hawk so watch for weakness in China related plays.</li>
<li>Overall expect a big leg higher for markets including in yen sensitive SPE and AI related.</li>
</ul>


No BOJ hike means bonds, banks, yen and insurance down, while defense and nuclear will do well.
She is seen as a China-hawk so watch for weakness in China related plays.
Overall expect a big leg higher for markets including in yen sensitive SPE and AI related.


Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right

Japan

Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in Chubu area.  The Company's service area includes Aichi, Gifu, Mie, Nagano, and part of Shizuoka Prefecture.

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Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Unloved Japan Round-Up

Some Autos, Steel, and Electric Power companies in Japan now offering yields that compete with U.S. Treasuries. The end of the hurricane season...

Michael Allen

What's Up - Or Rather, Down - With ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)?

Trading at a 8.5% gross spread. I'd be getting some exposure here. I think the risk of minority shareholders pushing back is overstated. Note:...

David Blennerhassett

ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

And we have a bump. "The Consortium is prepared to increase its offer price to US$8.15/share, in cash, for the ... issued share capital of the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right

Takaichi's right wing political views support a more aggressive millitary, making the heavies likely early buys. Expect utilities to do well,...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Unloved Japan Round-Up

Some Autos, Steel, and Electric Power companies in Japan now offering yields that compete with U.S. Treasuries. The end of the hurricane season...

Michael Allen

What's Up - Or Rather, Down - With ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)?

Trading at a 8.5% gross spread. I'd be getting some exposure here. I think the risk of minority shareholders pushing back is overstated. Note:...

David Blennerhassett

ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

And we have a bump. "The Consortium is prepared to increase its offer price to US$8.15/share, in cash, for the ... issued share capital of the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right

Takaichi's right wing political views support a more aggressive millitary, making the heavies likely early buys. Expect utilities to do well,...

Andrew Jackson

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...