Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SMCI -33% after federal prosecutors accused officials of smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Bad for Nidec Corp (6594 JP) who makes server cooling modules for SMCI.</li>
<li>Chiyoda looks interesting on Qatar LNG reconstruction given its direct tie-up with Technip once conflict stabilises.</li>
<li>Sumi Forestry looking increasingly ill-timed on its Tri Pointe acquisition as US homebuilder rates hit highest since mid-2026.</li>
</ul>


SMCI -33% after federal prosecutors accused officials of smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Bad for Nidec Corp (6594 JP) who makes server cooling modules for SMCI.
Chiyoda looks interesting on Qatar LNG reconstruction given its direct tie-up with Technip once conflict stabilises.
Sumi Forestry looking increasingly ill-timed on its Tri Pointe acquisition as US homebuilder rates hit highest since mid-2026.


Japan Morning Connection: SMCI's Chip Smuggling Scandal Drags Server and Memory Down

<ul>
<li>News that chipmakers plan to relax the standard that determines the thickness of next-gen 20-layer HBM4 memory chips sent hybrid-bonding play BESI -17%.</li>
<li>This sent Teradyne -10.6%, Lam Research -7.2%, and AMAT -6.3%, and while the impact is more nuanced in Japan it will be indiscriminate risk-off across SPE to start.</li>
<li>Software bounced so this may see a defense bid, and I would be looking to be long JP utilities with nuclear restarts vs those still dependent on oil/gas fired plants.</li>
</ul>


News that chipmakers plan to relax the standard that determines the thickness of next-gen 20-layer HBM4 memory chips sent hybrid-bonding play BESI -17%.
This sent Teradyne -10.6%, Lam Research -7.2%, and AMAT -6.3%, and while the impact is more nuanced in Japan it will be indiscriminate risk-off across SPE to start.
Software bounced so this may see a defense bid, and I would be looking to be long JP utilities with nuclear restarts vs those still dependent on oil/gas fired plants.


Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Beginning December 2024, a consortium comprising CPP, ADIA, Sumant Sinha, and Masdar, thrice bid for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a></strong>, before mysteriously walking away in December 2025.</li>
<li>On the 29th May, CPP and Sumant Sinha, collectively holding ~50%, returned with a US$6.75/share NBIO, then bumping to US$7.02/share. The prior consortium had bid up to US$8.15/share.</li>
<li>Terms appeared underwhelming. (Not?) Surprisingly Renew Energy opted to enter into a "definitive transaction agreement". Form 6-K has been issued. The IFA says fair. No EGM date currently tabled.</li>
</ul>


Beginning December 2024, a consortium comprising CPP, ADIA, Sumant Sinha, and Masdar, thrice bid for ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), before mysteriously walking away in December 2025.
On the 29th May, CPP and Sumant Sinha, collectively holding ~50%, returned with a US$6.75/share NBIO, then bumping to US$7.02/share. The prior consortium had bid up to US$8.15/share.
Terms appeared underwhelming. (Not?) Surprisingly Renew Energy opted to enter into a "definitive transaction agreement". Form 6-K has been issued. The IFA says fair. No EGM date currently tabled.


ReNew Energy (RNW US): Tight Spread As IFA, Key Shareholders, And SC Support Terms

<ul>
<li>No BOJ hike means bonds, banks, yen and insurance down, while defense and nuclear will do well.</li>
<li>She is seen as a China-hawk so watch for weakness in China related plays.</li>
<li>Overall expect a big leg higher for markets including in yen sensitive SPE and AI related.</li>
</ul>


No BOJ hike means bonds, banks, yen and insurance down, while defense and nuclear will do well.
She is seen as a China-hawk so watch for weakness in China related plays.
Overall expect a big leg higher for markets including in yen sensitive SPE and AI related.


Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right

Japan

Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in Chubu area.  The Company's service area includes Aichi, Gifu, Mie, Nagano, and part of Shizuoka Prefecture.

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Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP)

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI's Chip Smuggling Scandal Drags Server and Memory Down

SMCI Nvidia chip smuggling charges hit server and memory names. Japan's SPE names likely muted at open after missing Thursday's US rebound during...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

Brent surges as high as $111 this morning as hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei in voted in as Iran's next supreme leader. After the dust settles SPE will...

Andrew Jackson

ReNew Energy (RNW US): Tight Spread As IFA, Key Shareholders, And SC Support Terms

The Special Committee and the IFA are supportive. Shareholders with 51% (incl. Jera) of the Scheme vote are also supportive. The risk is the timing...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right

Takaichi's right wing political views support a more aggressive millitary, making the heavies likely early buys. Expect utilities to do well,...

Andrew Jackson

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