Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY</li>
<li>The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health</li>
<li>NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations - both are a good view on US economy</li>
</ul>


BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY
The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health
NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations - both are a good view on US economy


BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>RHB predicts strong earnings growth for SGX in 1HFY2025 with interim DPS of 17.5 cents, indicating positive performance ahead.</li><li>DBS issues special dividend as UOB plans share buyback, showcasing strong financial health and confidence in future prospects.</li><li>CGSI forecasts DBS's 4QFY2024 net profit at $2.7 billion and quarterly dividend rising to 60 cents, suggesting continued profitability.</li></ul>

RHB predicts strong earnings growth for SGX in 1HFY2025 with interim DPS of 17.5 cents, indicating positive performance ahead.DBS issues special dividend as UOB plans share buyback, showcasing strong financial health and confidence in future prospects.CGSI forecasts DBS's 4QFY2024 net profit at $2.7 billion and quarterly dividend rising to 60 cents, suggesting continued profitability.

Singapore Market Roundup (16-Jan-2025): RHB predicts strong 1HFY2025 earnings growth for SGX.

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ</li>
<li>The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth</li>
<li>While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ
The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth
While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these


JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

<ul>
<li>The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk</li>
<li>Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments</li>
<li>Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall</li>
</ul>


The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk
Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments
Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall


US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

<ul>
<li>There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20</li>
<li>JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US</li>
<li>Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs</li>
</ul>


There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20
JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US
Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs


JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

BAC is showing most all of its net profit delta in the past year coming from core income, which is positive. Its corporate lending appears strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Market Roundup (16-Jan-2025): RHB predicts strong 1HFY2025 earnings growth for SGX.

RHB predicts strong earnings growth for SGX in 1HFY2025, while DBS issues special dividend, UOB plans share buyback, and CGSI predicts positive...

Singapore Market Roundup

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

Fires in Los Angeles can result in impairments, loan restructurings, other second order effects for banks (and insurance companies), like credit...

Daniel Tabbush

JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

JPM shows some of the best rise of quarterly net interest income in US banking, and we believe this is very much due strong ALM, which is core to...

Daniel Tabbush

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