HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> should thrive in the volatile market environment in 2025, given its stable earnings, diversified geography, low gearing, and consistent dividends.</li>
<li>Further reduction in US interest rate should potentially be positive to other currencies, and CKI has diversified exposure in the UK, Australia, Europe, and Canada to benefit.</li>
<li>Investors may turn more risk-averse in the next year. CKI's high earnings visibility, with many regulatory resets happening beyond 2025, is highly welcome in the market. </li>
</ul>



CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) should thrive in the volatile market environment in 2025, given its stable earnings, diversified geography, low gearing, and consistent dividends.
Further reduction in US interest rate should potentially be positive to other currencies, and CKI has diversified exposure in the UK, Australia, Europe, and Canada to benefit.
Investors may turn more risk-averse in the next year. CKI's high earnings visibility, with many regulatory resets happening beyond 2025, is highly welcome in the market. 


2025 High Conviction: CKI (1038 HK) - Perfect Harmony

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>'s delicate dance continues as it juggles U.S and Beijing politics; and its fiduciary duty to shareholders, as the Blackrock exclusivity long stop date looms.</li>
<li>In a double dose of StubWorld this week, preceding my comments on CKH - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)'s delicate dance continues as it juggles U.S and Beijing politics; and its fiduciary duty to shareholders, as the Blackrock exclusivity long stop date looms.
In a double dose of StubWorld this week, preceding my comments on CKH - and CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) - Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.</li>
<li>Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.</li>
<li>The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.</li>
</ul>



CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.
Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.
The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is elevated vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as the accretion trade unfolds.</li>
<li>As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, as opposed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.</li>
<li>Expect near-term weakness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is elevated vs. Tencent (700 HK) as the accretion trade unfolds.
As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), as opposed to Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.
Expect near-term weakness in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. </li>
<li>The right trade is to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.</li>
</ul>


The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. 
The right trade is to buy JTower (4485 JP) below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

Hong Kong

CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited (CKI) operates as a real assets investment company. The Company invests in energy, transportation, water, and electricity generation sectors. CKI serves customers worldwide.

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CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)

2025 High Conviction: CKI (1038 HK) - Perfect Harmony

CKI should thrive in a volatile market with stable earnings, diversified geography, low gearing, and consistent dividends. Further, a lower US...

Osbert Tang, CFA

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) - Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

The exclusivity ha expired, however CKH "remains in discussions with... the consortium with a view to inviting major strategic investor from the...

David Blennerhassett

CKI (1038 HK): It Is the Best Time

CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025 High Conviction: CKI (1038 HK) - Perfect Harmony

CKI should thrive in a volatile market with stable earnings, diversified geography, low gearing, and consistent dividends. Further, a lower US...

Osbert Tang, CFA

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) - Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

The exclusivity ha expired, however CKH "remains in discussions with... the consortium with a view to inviting major strategic investor from the...

David Blennerhassett

CKI (1038 HK): It Is the Best Time

​CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...