HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> should thrive in the volatile market environment in 2025, given its stable earnings, diversified geography, low gearing, and consistent dividends.</li>
<li>Further reduction in US interest rate should potentially be positive to other currencies, and CKI has diversified exposure in the UK, Australia, Europe, and Canada to benefit.</li>
<li>Investors may turn more risk-averse in the next year. CKI's high earnings visibility, with many regulatory resets happening beyond 2025, is highly welcome in the market. </li>
</ul>



CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) should thrive in the volatile market environment in 2025, given its stable earnings, diversified geography, low gearing, and consistent dividends.
Further reduction in US interest rate should potentially be positive to other currencies, and CKI has diversified exposure in the UK, Australia, Europe, and Canada to benefit.
Investors may turn more risk-averse in the next year. CKI's high earnings visibility, with many regulatory resets happening beyond 2025, is highly welcome in the market. 


2025 High Conviction: CKI (1038 HK) - Perfect Harmony

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.</li>
<li>Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.</li>
<li>The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.</li>
</ul>



CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.
Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.
The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You might have to go all the back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a>'s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.</li>
<li>Otherwise, it's slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a>
</li>
<li>IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don't understand why they would want to block.</li>
</ul>


You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
Otherwise, it's slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)

IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don't understand why they would want to block.


Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

<ul>
<li>Trading in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a> spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>'s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> outperforms.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)</a> bubble has finally popped. Now what?</li>
</ul>


Trading in Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.

Naspers (NPN SJ)'s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms.
The Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) bubble has finally popped. Now what?


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>The best growth rates are at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The worst ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel Intl (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin (2343 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. 
The best growth rates are at China National Building Material (3323 HK), CICC (3908 HK), Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK), Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), and SITC Intl (1308 HK). 
The worst ones are China Travel Intl (308 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Pacific Basin (2343 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

Hong Kong

CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited (CKI) operates as a real assets investment company. The Company invests in energy, transportation, water, and electricity generation sectors. CKI serves customers worldwide.

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CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)

2025 High Conviction: CKI (1038 HK) - Perfect Harmony

CKI should thrive in a volatile market with stable earnings, diversified geography, low gearing, and consistent dividends. Further, a lower US...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CKI (1038 HK): It Is the Best Time

CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

PE and/or a VC outfit blocking deals are rare. Which may suggest LVC doesn't want that moniker. You could therefore, extrapolate that line of...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025 High Conviction: CKI (1038 HK) - Perfect Harmony

CKI should thrive in a volatile market with stable earnings, diversified geography, low gearing, and consistent dividends. Further, a lower US...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CKI (1038 HK): It Is the Best Time

​CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

PE and/or a VC outfit blocking deals are rare. Which may suggest LVC doesn't want that moniker. You could therefore, extrapolate that line of...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CKI is poised to perform with non-US assets becoming more attractive, benefitting from global inflation and foreign earnings translation, offering...