Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our core pick is flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise through its trading and post-trading (including clearing) operations in interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange and commodity derivatives</li>
<li>We also like Deutsche Borse as the European flow monster and for its attractive valuations and gearing into greater European securities activity</li>
<li>We downgrade Japan Exchange to a neutral from buy for its fair valuations, as we see more compelling opportunities with CME group and Deutsche Borse; CBOE is one to watch</li>
</ul>


Our core pick is flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise through its trading and post-trading (including clearing) operations in interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange and commodity derivatives
We also like Deutsche Borse as the European flow monster and for its attractive valuations and gearing into greater European securities activity
We downgrade Japan Exchange to a neutral from buy for its fair valuations, as we see more compelling opportunities with CME group and Deutsche Borse; CBOE is one to watch


Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Historical data from 1971 to the present indicates that the Fed typically reduces the fed funds rate when nominal GDP falls below the policy interest rate.</li><li>This leads us to consider the possibility that the Fed's first rate cut may occur later than what the market expects (CME's FedWatch Tool anticipates the first rate cut in March 2024).</li><li>Consequently, there is a likelihood that foreign funds may flow away from the Thai market to US markets, exerting downward pressure on the baht against the USD.</li></ul>

Historical data from 1971 to the present indicates that the Fed typically reduces the fed funds rate when nominal GDP falls below the policy interest rate.This leads us to consider the possibility that the Fed's first rate cut may occur later than what the market expects (CME's FedWatch Tool anticipates the first rate cut in March 2024).Consequently, there is a likelihood that foreign funds may flow away from the Thai market to US markets, exerting downward pressure on the baht against the USD.

FOMC Meeting Increases Risk of Fund Outflows from SET

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The significance of the impending FOMC meeting on December 14, 2023, lies in the Fed's perspective on interest rate adjustments.</li><li>KTX forecasts a GDP growth rate of +2.6% YoY in 2023E, surpassing the Fed's estimate of +2.1% YoY.</li><li>Consequently, we caution against prematurely concluding that the Fed's interest rate upcycle has come to an end, expecting it to maintain the 2024E dot plot at 5.1%, compared to the FedWatch Tool's anticipation of 4.25%.</li></ul>

The significance of the impending FOMC meeting on December 14, 2023, lies in the Fed's perspective on interest rate adjustments.KTX forecasts a GDP growth rate of +2.6% YoY in 2023E, surpassing the Fed's estimate of +2.1% YoY.Consequently, we caution against prematurely concluding that the Fed's interest rate upcycle has come to an end, expecting it to maintain the 2024E dot plot at 5.1%, compared to the FedWatch Tool's anticipation of 4.25%.

Keep a Close Watch on the Fed's Economic Projections

<ul><li>The FOMC yesterday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, for the second consecutive meeting.</li><li>The market sees a high possibility that the Fed may also hold rates steady in the next meeting on December 13, reflecting that the interest rate uptrend cycle may be nearing an end.</li><li>We recommend Trading Buy on stocks in the finance sector, namely SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR.</li></ul>

The FOMC yesterday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, for the second consecutive meeting.The market sees a high possibility that the Fed may also hold rates steady in the next meeting on December 13, reflecting that the interest rate uptrend cycle may be nearing an end.We recommend Trading Buy on stocks in the finance sector, namely SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR.

The Fed Signals That the Interest Uptrend Is Nearing an End

United States

CME Group Inc. operates a derivatives exchange that trades futures contracts and options on futures, interest rates, stock indexes, foreign exchange and commodities.  The Exchange brings together buyers and sellers of derivatives products on its trading floors, electronic trading platform, and through privately negotiated transactions that it clears.

Price Gauge
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CME Group (CME US)

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...

Victor Galliano

FOMC Meeting Increases Risk of Fund Outflows from SET

Historical data from 1971 to the present indicates that the Fed typically reduces the fed funds rate when nominal GDP falls below the policy...

Krungthai XSpring

Keep a Close Watch on the Fed's Economic Projections

The significance of the impending FOMC meeting on December 14, 2023, lies in the Fed's perspective on interest rate adjustments. KTX forecasts a...

Krungthai XSpring

The Fed Signals That the Interest Uptrend Is Nearing an End

The FOMC yesterday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, for the second consecutive meeting. The market sees a...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Developed Market Exchanges – Integrated Flow Monsters and Big Data Monetisers

​CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...

Victor Galliano

FOMC Meeting Increases Risk of Fund Outflows from SET

Historical data from 1971 to the present indicates that the Fed typically reduces the fed funds rate when nominal GDP falls below the policy...

Krungthai XSpring

Keep a Close Watch on the Fed's Economic Projections

The significance of the impending FOMC meeting on December 14, 2023, lies in the Fed's perspective on interest rate adjustments. KTX forecasts a...

Krungthai XSpring

The Fed Signals That the Interest Uptrend Is Nearing an End

The FOMC yesterday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, for the second consecutive meeting. The market sees a...

Krungthai XSpring

CME Group is our top pick for its dominant market position in key US derivatives, Deutsche Borse is also on the buy list. We downgrade Japan...