Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Risk-Reward now skewed towards reward in the Hong Kong market.</li>
<li>Barbell strategy with both high-beta and lower volatility dividend stocks.</li>
<li>Some initial ideas included to add or start a portfolio  incorporating HK stocks.</li>
</ul>


Risk-Reward now skewed towards reward in the Hong Kong market.
Barbell strategy with both high-beta and lower volatility dividend stocks.
Some initial ideas included to add or start a portfolio  incorporating HK stocks.


2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 3

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.</li>
<li>STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024):  STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. Hs gave up some ground vs As in Week One.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$14.4bn of net IN-flows in the 4-day week to 5 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$96bn.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND start the year by buying ETFs, high-div SOEs like China Mobile and CNOOC, coal names, and sports/consumer names.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. Hs gave up some ground vs As in Week One.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$14.4bn of net IN-flows in the 4-day week to 5 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$96bn.
SOUTHBOUND start the year by buying ETFs, high-div SOEs like China Mobile and CNOOC, coal names, and sports/consumer names.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 5th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight HK Connect flows for China Mobile, and CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 5th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight HK Connect flows for China Mobile, and CNOOC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 5th): China Mobile, CNOOC

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We doubt if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a> can sustain good performance in 2024. On historical patterns, it has never sustained as one of HSI's best-performing stocks for two consecutive years. </li>
<li>Consensus growth forecasts of 4.4% and 4.3% for FY24-25 are likely wrong as this means FY25 will be the 5th straight year of growth. PetroChina does not behave like that. </li>
<li>Crude oil price has got back to the end-2022 level, but PetroChina's share price is still 50% higher. A return to their high correlation before 2023 will lead to underperformance. </li>
</ul>


We doubt if PetroChina (857 HK) can sustain good performance in 2024. On historical patterns, it has never sustained as one of HSI's best-performing stocks for two consecutive years. 
Consensus growth forecasts of 4.4% and 4.3% for FY24-25 are likely wrong as this means FY25 will be the 5th straight year of growth. PetroChina does not behave like that. 
Crude oil price has got back to the end-2022 level, but PetroChina's share price is still 50% higher. A return to their high correlation before 2023 will lead to underperformance. 


PetroChina (857 HK): An Interesting Contrarian View

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 3

The Hong Kong market offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, suggesting a barbell strategy with high-beta and low volatility dividend stocks could...

Rikki Malik

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The first week of the year, the A/H premia on average were flat. On liquid names, Hs slightly underperformed. Very mixed across sectors. Premia...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

Strong net buying in the first week of the year by SOUTHBOUND investors in HK Connect. Big buys in ETFs (they go back and forth every week), China...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 5th): China Mobile, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong Kong connect flows for China Mobile, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PetroChina (857 HK): An Interesting Contrarian View

Doubts arise over PetroChina's ability to sustain good performance in 2024 due to historical patterns, over-aggressive growth forecasts, and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 3

​The Hong Kong market offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, suggesting a barbell strategy with high-beta and low volatility dividend stocks could...

Rikki Malik

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The first week of the year, the A/H premia on average were flat. On liquid names, Hs slightly underperformed. Very mixed across sectors. Premia...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

Strong net buying in the first week of the year by SOUTHBOUND investors in HK Connect. Big buys in ETFs (they go back and forth every week), China...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 5th): China Mobile, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong Kong connect flows for China Mobile, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PetroChina (857 HK): An Interesting Contrarian View

​Doubts arise over PetroChina's ability to sustain good performance in 2024 due to historical patterns, over-aggressive growth forecasts, and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Hong Kong market offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, suggesting a barbell strategy with high-beta and low volatility dividend stocks could...

Doubts arise over PetroChina's ability to sustain good performance in 2024 due to historical patterns, over-aggressive growth forecasts, and a...