Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.</li>
<li>SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.
SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.


More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Figma Inc., a VC-backed collaborative design software maker, filed for long-awaited IPO. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the lead bankers on the offering.</li>
<li>The San Francisco-based company was valued at $12.5B in a 2024 tender offer. Figma is well-positioned with a strong brand among designers and a growing footprint in enterprise segment.</li>
<li>With strong financial profile and network effects, driven by large scale and efficient GTM strategy, the company remains the leader in collaborative design software market.</li>
</ul>


Figma Inc., a VC-backed collaborative design software maker, filed for long-awaited IPO. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the lead bankers on the offering.
The San Francisco-based company was valued at $12.5B in a 2024 tender offer. Figma is well-positioned with a strong brand among designers and a growing footprint in enterprise segment.
With strong financial profile and network effects, driven by large scale and efficient GTM strategy, the company remains the leader in collaborative design software market.


Figma IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Disruptor In The Design Software Market

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interactive-brokers-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13335:1" rel="noopener">Interactive Brokers (IBKR US),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duolingo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33531:1" rel="noopener">Duolingo (DUOL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emcor-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20703:1" rel="noopener">EMCOR (EME US)</a> are the main candidates for addition at review to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enphase-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8872:1" rel="noopener">Enphase Energy (ENPH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caesars-entertainment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15532:1" rel="noopener">Caesars Entertainment (CZR US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cheniere-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16683:1" rel="noopener">Cheniere Energy (LNG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> are the main candidates for the replacement of the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys (ANSS US)</a> which is anticipated end of June.</li>
<li>There is a possibility of zero S&amp;P500 changes at the review due to candidates scoring low in market cap and sector balance.</li>
</ul>



Interactive Brokers (IBKR US),Duolingo (DUOL US) and EMCOR (EME US) are the main candidates for addition at review to replace Enphase Energy (ENPH US) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR US). 

Cheniere Energy (LNG US) and AppLovin (APP US) are the main candidates for the replacement of the acquisition of Ansys (ANSS US) which is anticipated end of June.
There is a possibility of zero S&amp;P500 changes at the review due to candidates scoring low in market cap and sector balance.


S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Circle Internet Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Circle Internet locked down a pair of anchor orders ahead of next week's IPO which is already oversubscribed.</li>
<li>Circle posted $122m of adjusted Ebitda in Q12025 while growing revenue by 58% to $579m. </li>
<li>The combination of anchor orders, an attractive valuation, growing metrics and a tailwind from the Trump administration all tilt the risk-reward profile in a positive direction.</li>
</ul>


Circle Internet locked down a pair of anchor orders ahead of next week's IPO which is already oversubscribed.
Circle posted $122m of adjusted Ebitda in Q12025 while growing revenue by 58% to $579m. 
The combination of anchor orders, an attractive valuation, growing metrics and a tailwind from the Trump administration all tilt the risk-reward profile in a positive direction.


Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Ark, BlackRock to Anchor Oversubscribed Stablecoin IPO

<ul>
<li>Circle will be offering 24 million shares at a $24-$26 range equating to a 5.2b-5.65b valuation.</li>
<li>The company is a stable coin powerhouse with more than $25 trillion in transacted volume since founding. </li>
<li>The deal has a potential "floor" with companies reportedly interested in acquiring Circle Internet. </li>
</ul>


Circle will be offering 24 million shares at a $24-$26 range equating to a 5.2b-5.65b valuation.
The company is a stable coin powerhouse with more than $25 trillion in transacted volume since founding. 
The deal has a potential "floor" with companies reportedly interested in acquiring Circle Internet. 


Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Acquisition Target Moves Ahead with IPO

United States

Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial solutions. The Company offers platform to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. Coinbase Global serves clients worldwide.

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Coinbase Global (COIN US)

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM. Monitoring Rotations: Utilities $XLU, Real Estate $XLRE, Miners $XME $GDX,...

Vermilion Research

Figma IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Disruptor In The Design Software Market

Figma Inc., a VC-backed collaborative design software maker, files for an IPO with strong financials and market leadership. Morgan Stanley and...

Andrei Zakharov

S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?

No index changes materialized, and the candidates are weak indeed. Nonetheless, I still expected eligible midcap constituents to replace CZR and/or...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Ark, BlackRock to Anchor Oversubscribed Stablecoin IPO

Circle Internet secures anchor orders and strong financials ahead of oversubscribed IPO, with positive outlook due to growing metrics and...

IPO Boutique

Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Acquisition Target Moves Ahead with IPO

Circle, a stable coin powerhouse, plans to offer 24 million shares at $24-$26 each, valuing the company at $5.2b-$5.65b, with potential...

IPO Boutique

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More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM. Monitoring Rotations: Utilities $XLU, Real Estate $XLRE, Miners $XME $GDX,...

Vermilion Research

Figma IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Disruptor In The Design Software Market

​Figma Inc., a VC-backed collaborative design software maker, files for an IPO with strong financials and market leadership. Morgan Stanley and...

Andrei Zakharov

S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?

No index changes materialized, and the candidates are weak indeed. Nonetheless, I still expected eligible midcap constituents to replace CZR and/or...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Ark, BlackRock to Anchor Oversubscribed Stablecoin IPO

​Circle Internet secures anchor orders and strong financials ahead of oversubscribed IPO, with positive outlook due to growing metrics and...

IPO Boutique

Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Acquisition Target Moves Ahead with IPO

​Circle, a stable coin powerhouse, plans to offer 24 million shares at $24-$26 each, valuing the company at $5.2b-$5.65b, with potential...

IPO Boutique

Figma Inc., a VC-backed collaborative design software maker, files for an IPO with strong financials and market leadership. Morgan Stanley and...

Circle Internet secures anchor orders and strong financials ahead of oversubscribed IPO, with positive outlook due to growing metrics and...

Circle, a stable coin powerhouse, plans to offer 24 million shares at $24-$26 each, valuing the company at $5.2b-$5.65b, with potential...