Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.</li>
<li>This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.</li>
</ul>


The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.


Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in June 2025. There are also multiple live spin-off and M&amp;A events which may trigger intra-review index changes near-term. Check the Leaderboards for those.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in June 2025. There are also multiple live spin-off and M&amp;A events which may trigger intra-review index changes near-term. Check the Leaderboards for those.


[Quiddity Index May25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Still Possible

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The company priced 11.9mm shares (upsized from 10.0mm) at $52.00 and opened at $69.69 for a gain of 34.0% at first trade.</li>
<li>Our sources stated that the deal finished north of 20-times oversubscribed with the bottom-third of the book being completely shut-out.</li>
<li>We believe the company was well-received due to an attractive valuation versus comps and by the performance of the comps in the sessions leading up to this debut.</li>
</ul>


The company priced 11.9mm shares (upsized from 10.0mm) at $52.00 and opened at $69.69 for a gain of 34.0% at first trade.
Our sources stated that the deal finished north of 20-times oversubscribed with the bottom-third of the book being completely shut-out.
We believe the company was well-received due to an attractive valuation versus comps and by the performance of the comps in the sessions leading up to this debut.


EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Strong IPO Pricing Outcome Yields Explosive Debut

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> is forecasted to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/discover-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11966:1" rel="noopener">Discover Financial Services (DFS US)</a> in S&amp;P500 on 19 May following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capital-one-financial-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:255:1" rel="noopener">Capital One's</a> approved acquisition.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a>. </li>
<li>Zero changes are forecasted for S&amp;P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.</li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to replace Discover Financial Services (DFS US) in S&amp;P500 on 19 May following Capital One's approved acquisition.

CRH (CRH US) and Coinbase Global (COIN US) are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of Kellogg Co (K US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US). 
Zero changes are forecasted for S&amp;P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.


S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

<ul>
<li>An early channel check of this deal revealed that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued 1-on-1 conversions. The books close Monday at 4pm.</li>
<li>The company is targeting the "next generation" of investor with encouraging growth and has the metrics to show they are meaningfully headed in the right direction. </li>
<li>Our sources state that want to be involved with the name and we believe an explosive debut could be on tap for this IPO. </li>
</ul>


An early channel check of this deal revealed that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued 1-on-1 conversions. The books close Monday at 4pm.
The company is targeting the "next generation" of investor with encouraging growth and has the metrics to show they are meaningfully headed in the right direction. 
Our sources state that want to be involved with the name and we believe an explosive debut could be on tap for this IPO. 


EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): IPO Window Opening Up; Buyers Pour in for Trading Platform

United States

Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial solutions. The Company offers platform to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. Coinbase Global serves clients worldwide.

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Coinbase Global (COIN US)

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto $MSTR $HOOD $BTDR $COIN and Quantum $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT) Leading. Bullish outlook intact as long as...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index May25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Still Possible

The S&P500 has a couple of possible changes at the regular rebalance and more intra-review changes after. That means S&P600 DELs. We like those...

Travis Lundy

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Strong IPO Pricing Outcome Yields Explosive Debut

Company prices IPO at $52 per share, opens at $69.69 with 34.0% gain. Oversubscribed deal reflects strong investor interest in attractive valuation.

IPO Boutique

S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

COIN will be added to S&P500 at the close of 16 May as a replacement to the DFS acquisition. CRH has been removed from the addition candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): IPO Window Opening Up; Buyers Pour in for Trading Platform

Early channel check shows high demand for offering targeting next-gen investors with promising growth metrics. Potentially explosive IPO debut on...

IPO Boutique

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Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto $MSTR $HOOD $BTDR $COIN and Quantum $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT) Leading. Bullish outlook intact as long as...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index May25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Still Possible

The S&P500 has a couple of possible changes at the regular rebalance and more intra-review changes after. That means S&P600 DELs. We like those...

Travis Lundy

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Strong IPO Pricing Outcome Yields Explosive Debut

​Company prices IPO at $52 per share, opens at $69.69 with 34.0% gain. Oversubscribed deal reflects strong investor interest in attractive valuation.

IPO Boutique

S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

COIN will be added to S&P500 at the close of 16 May as a replacement to the DFS acquisition. CRH has been removed from the addition candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): IPO Window Opening Up; Buyers Pour in for Trading Platform

​Early channel check shows high demand for offering targeting next-gen investors with promising growth metrics. Potentially explosive IPO debut on...

IPO Boutique

Company prices IPO at $52 per share, opens at $69.69 with 34.0% gain. Oversubscribed deal reflects strong investor interest in attractive valuation.

Early channel check shows high demand for offering targeting next-gen investors with promising growth metrics. Potentially explosive IPO debut on...