European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>€1bn buyback absorbs ~5% of free float by Feb 2026, providing scarcity support and EPS accretion while signaling independence.</li>
<li>UniCredit builds to 26%, cleared up to 29.9%, with 30% as the mandatory offer trigger.</li>
<li>Options market shows heavy 33C positioning; best trade expressions are call spreads or financed risk reversals around MAR disclosures and regulatory milestones.</li>
</ul>


€1bn buyback absorbs ~5% of free float by Feb 2026, providing scarcity support and EPS accretion while signaling independence.
UniCredit builds to 26%, cleared up to 29.9%, with 30% as the mandatory offer trigger.
Options market shows heavy 33C positioning; best trade expressions are call spreads or financed risk reversals around MAR disclosures and regulatory milestones.


CBK: Buyback Tightens Float as UniCredit Nears 30% Threshold

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst, ORTEX

Harry Kalfas

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> has formally withdrawn its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a>, following sustained political resistance from the Italian government.</li>
<li>In parallel, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> has increased its direct ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> from approx. 9% to 20%, with plans to reach 29% in total.</li>
<li>The resulting reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank's</a> free float may lead to index adjustments in phases, with further passive flows expected once the remaining exposure is converted.</li>
</ul>



UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) has formally withdrawn its bid for Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM), following sustained political resistance from the Italian government.
In parallel, UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) has increased its direct ownership in Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) from approx. 9% to 20%, with plans to reach 29% in total.
The resulting reduction in Commerzbank's free float may lead to index adjustments in phases, with further passive flows expected once the remaining exposure is converted.


UniCredit: Drops BPM Bid, Targets 29% Stake in Commerzbank - Index Moves Ahead

<ul>
<li>Commerzbank's Strong Standalone Outlook: The bank exceeded 2024 targets, announced a 100% payout ratio by 2028, and aims for €14.2 billion in revenue and 15% RoTE by 2028, reducing the urgency for a sale.</li>
<li>UniCredit's Takeover Strategy: UniCredit has secured a 28% synthetic stake in Commerzbank and plans to convert it into equity by mid-2025, with a potential &gt;€20/share bid expected late 2025/early 2026.</li>
<li>Political and Regulatory Challenges: The German government (12% owner), labor unions, and local politicians oppose the deal, citing financial sovereignty concerns, making a near-term takeover highly uncertain despite UniCredit's strategic push.</li>
</ul>


Commerzbank's Strong Standalone Outlook: The bank exceeded 2024 targets, announced a 100% payout ratio by 2028, and aims for €14.2 billion in revenue and 15% RoTE by 2028, reducing the urgency for a sale.
UniCredit's Takeover Strategy: UniCredit has secured a 28% synthetic stake in Commerzbank and plans to convert it into equity by mid-2025, with a potential &gt;€20/share bid expected late 2025/early 2026.
Political and Regulatory Challenges: The German government (12% owner), labor unions, and local politicians oppose the deal, citing financial sovereignty concerns, making a near-term takeover highly uncertain despite UniCredit's strategic push.


UniCredit/Commerzbank: Comerzbank's CMD, Update on Timeline and Challenges

<ul>
<li>UniCredit increased its economic exposure to Commerzbank to approximately 28%, aligning with its strategy to reach a 29.9% stake, pending ECB approval in early 2025.</li>
<li>Commerzbank’s operational inefficiencies and valuation at 0.56x tangible book value highlight challenges for independence, reinforcing the rationale for a potential UniCredit takeover. My core position would be long Commerzbank.</li>
<li>Projected synergies for a UniCredit-Commerzbank merger range from €705 million to €1.409 billion annually, with significant upside for Commerzbank’s share price if a takeover occurs.</li>
</ul>


UniCredit increased its economic exposure to Commerzbank to approximately 28%, aligning with its strategy to reach a 29.9% stake, pending ECB approval in early 2025.
Commerzbank’s operational inefficiencies and valuation at 0.56x tangible book value highlight challenges for independence, reinforcing the rationale for a potential UniCredit takeover. My core position would be long Commerzbank.
Projected synergies for a UniCredit-Commerzbank merger range from €705 million to €1.409 billion annually, with significant upside for Commerzbank’s share price if a takeover occurs.


UniCredit's Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

CBK: Buyback Tightens Float as UniCredit Nears 30% Threshold

Commerzbank’s €1bn buyback supports shares and tightens float, while UniCredit’s 26% stake build adds control-premium optionality. Play buyback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UniCredit: Drops BPM Bid, Targets 29% Stake in Commerzbank - Index Moves Ahead

UniCredit withdraws its Banco BPM bid, shifting focus to boosting its Commerzbank direct ownership to 29%, triggering multiple index adjustments.

Harry Kalfas

UniCredit/Commerzbank: Comerzbank's CMD, Update on Timeline and Challenges

Commerzbank's strong performance and resistance to UniCredit's takeover bid create uncertainty despite ambitious growth targets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UniCredit's Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover

UniCredit increases stake in Commerzbank to 28%, eyeing potential takeover pending ECB approval in 2025. Synergies projected to boost share price...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CBK: Buyback Tightens Float as UniCredit Nears 30% Threshold

Commerzbank’s €1bn buyback supports shares and tightens float, while UniCredit’s 26% stake build adds control-premium optionality. Play buyback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UniCredit: Drops BPM Bid, Targets 29% Stake in Commerzbank - Index Moves Ahead

UniCredit withdraws its Banco BPM bid, shifting focus to boosting its Commerzbank direct ownership to 29%, triggering multiple index adjustments.

Harry Kalfas

UniCredit/Commerzbank: Comerzbank's CMD, Update on Timeline and Challenges

​Commerzbank's strong performance and resistance to UniCredit's takeover bid create uncertainty despite ambitious growth targets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UniCredit's Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover

​UniCredit increases stake in Commerzbank to 28%, eyeing potential takeover pending ECB approval in 2025. Synergies projected to boost share price...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Commerzbank's strong performance and resistance to UniCredit's takeover bid create uncertainty despite ambitious growth targets.

UniCredit increases stake in Commerzbank to 28%, eyeing potential takeover pending ECB approval in 2025. Synergies projected to boost share price...