Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Sberbank of Russia PJSC / Equity Bottom-Up

*Russia Military Raises Threat Level: After years of an uneasy stalemate, Russia’s Southern Military Theater recently concluded major exercises in March. Despite their conclusion, 3-4 thousand Russian troops allegedly remain just 30 miles from Ukraine's southern border. On March 27th, Russia indicated its displeasure with the lack of progress on ceasefire negotiations while the Ukrainian Parliament announced that the July ceasefire had broken down with continued skirmishes and border incursions;  *Ukranian Bank Already Under Pressure: SberBank of Russia PJSC (SBER.RM) [Sberbank] has been operating its wholly-owned Ukraine subsidiary, AO Sberbank (AO), since 2007. AO has been operating profitably following improved cost efficiencies and lowered loss provisions despite being constrained by a high level of problem loans and exposure to COVID-19 affected sectors. Further, AO, along with most other Ukranian banks, has substantial government bond holdings whose ratings are already challenged; and   * New Sanctions Likely Coming: We would any new additional sanctions to include: the Nord Stream II Pipeline, which is close to allowing the transshipment of natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany (bypassing Ukraine); further sanctions on the Russian financial sector which could exacerbate problems for the already challenged AO; and a ban on Russian sovereign debt as an investment.

*Russia Military Raises Threat Level: After years of an uneasy stalemate, Russia’s Southern Military Theater recently concluded major exercises in March. Despite their conclusion, 3-4 thousand Russian troops allegedly remain just 30 miles from Ukraine's southern border. On March 27th, Russia indicated its displeasure with the lack of progress on ceasefire negotiations while the Ukrainian Parliament announced that the July ceasefire had broken down with continued skirmishes and border incursions;  *Ukranian Bank Already Under Pressure: SberBank of Russia PJSC (SBER.RM) [Sberbank] has been operating its wholly-owned Ukraine subsidiary, AO Sberbank (AO), since 2007. AO has been operating profitably following improved cost efficiencies and lowered loss provisions despite being constrained by a high level of problem loans and exposure to COVID-19 affected sectors. Further, AO, along with most other Ukranian banks, has substantial government bond holdings whose ratings are already challenged; and   * New Sanctions Likely Coming: We would any new additional sanctions to include: the Nord Stream II Pipeline, which is close to allowing the transshipment of natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany (bypassing Ukraine); further sanctions on the Russian financial sector which could exacerbate problems for the already challenged AO; and a ban on Russian sovereign debt as an investment.  

Sberbank of Russia – Ukraine Risks Rising

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Democratic Party control of the Senate has clearly moved the goal posts for fixed income investors. The reflation trade is back. This requires repositioning by bank credit investors.The good news is that the rise in Treasuries is beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially since it is occurring in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Globally, higher net interest margins should follow from the steepening of the U.S. yield curve as excess reserves are allocated into US$ securities. However, the impact on India-headquartered banks may be less as we discuss within.There are two less positive impacts. First, if the rise in rates is a reflection that inflation is expected to return, then this is not duration friendly. In fact, long duration fixed income securities suffered over the last week. Theoretically, credit curves should flatten in response to the yield curve steepening. However, given the enormous level of monetary accommodation over the last nine months, the question then becomes, how much further can spreads tighten? Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario. Second, higher rates will raise the real effective US$ exchange rate. All else equal, a higher real effective US$ exchange rate is dollar positive.  Asia and emerging market (EM) securities could suffer.Against this backdrop, higher risk Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bank bonds outperformed, principally driven by Thailand- and other higher risk China-centric securities on expectations of increased economic activity. Thai banks performed across the credit continuum in Senior Unsecured, Tier 2 and AT1 notes. This seems to be a case of cognitive dissonance which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks. The COVID-19 situation is deteriorating in Thailand and elsewhere. High financial market valuations seem inconsistent with economic activity. A pronounced degradation of asset prices could materialize. Our preference is to fade the Thai-bank rally.France’s central bank noted that systemic risk may rise over the coming months due to high corporate debt and the current round of Covid-19 lockdowns. The regulator stated that a significant rise in defaults could occur in a slow economic recovery. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bnp-paribas-capital-forbearance-and-cds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46684" rel="noopener">BNP Paribas: Capital, Forbearance and CDS</a> for our assessment of this situation.In addition, we note that<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> set a high bar for balance sheet clean-up by announcing a 50% increase in loan loss provisions for COVID-19. We would not be surprised to see additional healthy increases in loan loss provisioning. In fact, credit investors should be concerned if there are limited additional provisions taken. US banks kick-off the global bank earnings season on Friday.Market Outlook: Absent another behavioral lapse by the US President, ebullience over the prospects of additional stimulus spending should continue to positively impact the markets. Another lapse by the US President could see a temporary rise in demand for safe-haven assets. Eventually, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on how the Fed reacts. In this environment, artificially engineered credit costs may come back to hurt bank investors. Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario and duration is not your friend at this point in the cycle.

Democratic Party control of the Senate has clearly moved the goal posts for fixed income investors. The reflation trade is back. This requires repositioning by bank credit investors.The good news is that the rise in Treasuries is beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially since it is occurring in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Globally, higher net interest margins should follow from the steepening of the U.S. yield curve as excess reserves are allocated into US$ securities. However, the impact on India-headquartered banks may be less as we discuss within.There are two less positive impacts. First, if the rise in rates is a reflection that inflation is expected to return, then this is not duration friendly. In fact, long duration fixed income securities suffered over the last week. Theoretically, credit curves should flatten in response to the yield curve steepening. However, given the enormous level of monetary accommodation over the last nine months, the question then becomes, how much further can spreads tighten? Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario. Second, higher rates will raise the real effective US$ exchange rate. All else equal, a higher real effective US$ exchange rate is dollar positive.  Asia and emerging market (EM) securities could suffer.Against this backdrop, higher risk Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bank bonds outperformed, principally driven by Thailand- and other higher risk China-centric securities on expectations of increased economic activity. Thai banks performed across the credit continuum in Senior Unsecured, Tier 2 and AT1 notes. This seems to be a case of cognitive dissonance which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks. The COVID-19 situation is deteriorating in Thailand and elsewhere. High financial market valuations seem inconsistent with economic activity. A pronounced degradation of asset prices could materialize. Our preference is to fade the Thai-bank rally.France’s central bank noted that systemic risk may rise over the coming months due to high corporate debt and the current round of Covid-19 lockdowns. The regulator stated that a significant rise in defaults could occur in a slow economic recovery. Please see BNP Paribas: Capital, Forbearance and CDS for our assessment of this situation.In addition, we note thatCommerzbank AG (CBK GR) set a high bar for balance sheet clean-up by announcing a 50% increase in loan loss provisions for COVID-19. We would not be surprised to see additional healthy increases in loan loss provisioning. In fact, credit investors should be concerned if there are limited additional provisions taken. US banks kick-off the global bank earnings season on Friday.Market Outlook: Absent another behavioral lapse by the US President, ebullience over the prospects of additional stimulus spending should continue to positively impact the markets. Another lapse by the US President could see a temporary rise in demand for safe-haven assets. Eventually, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on how the Fed reacts. In this environment, artificially engineered credit costs may come back to hurt bank investors. Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario and duration is not your friend at this point in the cycle.

Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings' (HSBA LN)</a> newly issued Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond is not worth chasing. HSBC remains adrift and a strategic reset in February could have an outsized impact on longer dated notes. We see better risk adjusted returns in lower duration securities of the issuer.HCBC’s 4.6% coupon 2030 first call AT1 bond priced in-line with similarly long-duration AT1 notes. The market’s preference for duration aided in generating attractive pricing for the issuer. Priced at 10-year Treasuries plus 365 basis points, we see little upside and plenty of market-driven downside at this level. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bnp-paribas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:525:1" rel="noopener">BNP Paribas' (BNP FP)</a> 4.5% coupon 2030 first call AT1 priced at a tighter spread in 10-year AT1 paper this year and BNP’s market timing was perfect.This issuance also suggests to us a sooner than expected restart of stock buybacks. To limit capital leverage, HSBC Holding’s UK regulator generally does not allow banks to issue AT1 while the firm is buying stock in the open market. Stock buybacks can deplete capital buffers faster than regular dividends and, therefore, are not AT1 investor friendly.  Taken together, a flat yield curve combined with<ul><li><ul>
<li>overpriced risk relative to ratings,</li>
<li>spreads that are tight to similar maturity senior bonds</li>
<li>capital buffers that are in-line with peers but driven by high conversion trigger levels that are not priced-in, and</li>
<li>underpriced credit default risk at the long end</li>
</ul></li></ul>leads us to conclude that the newly issued AT1 note has limited upside relative to its shorter duration cohorts.Finally, investor preference for long-duration assets in the low yield environment appears to be having a large impact on valuations. Chasing spread at this point in the cycle can be dangerous. Given better risk / return opportunities on other parts of the credit continuum, we do not recommend chasing HSBC’s new AT1 bond.

HSBC Holdings' (HSBA LN) newly issued Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond is not worth chasing. HSBC remains adrift and a strategic reset in February could have an outsized impact on longer dated notes. We see better risk adjusted returns in lower duration securities of the issuer.HCBC’s 4.6% coupon 2030 first call AT1 bond priced in-line with similarly long-duration AT1 notes. The market’s preference for duration aided in generating attractive pricing for the issuer. Priced at 10-year Treasuries plus 365 basis points, we see little upside and plenty of market-driven downside at this level. Only BNP Paribas' (BNP FP) 4.5% coupon 2030 first call AT1 priced at a tighter spread in 10-year AT1 paper this year and BNP’s market timing was perfect.This issuance also suggests to us a sooner than expected restart of stock buybacks. To limit capital leverage, HSBC Holding’s UK regulator generally does not allow banks to issue AT1 while the firm is buying stock in the open market. Stock buybacks can deplete capital buffers faster than regular dividends and, therefore, are not AT1 investor friendly.  Taken together, a flat yield curve combined with
overpriced risk relative to ratings,
spreads that are tight to similar maturity senior bonds
capital buffers that are in-line with peers but driven by high conversion trigger levels that are not priced-in, and
underpriced credit default risk at the long end
leads us to conclude that the newly issued AT1 note has limited upside relative to its shorter duration cohorts.Finally, investor preference for long-duration assets in the low yield environment appears to be having a large impact on valuations. Chasing spread at this point in the cycle can be dangerous. Given better risk / return opportunities on other parts of the credit continuum, we do not recommend chasing HSBC’s new AT1 bond.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul class="">
<li>The new CaixaBank has established the composition of its Board of directors, which will be the largest domestic bank in Spain.</li>
<li> The independent expert (BDO) has endorsed the exchange ratio,
<ul>
<li>
0.6845 new CaixaBank shares for each Bankia share.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The FROB believes that the operation will have a positive effect on the recovery of the aid.</li>
</ul>
I recommend keeping an eye on the spread.
<ul>
<li>It closed on 27 October at 1.66% (gross), not far from the maximum reached on 20 October of 1.73%, and in any case an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close (est. March 2021).
</li>
</ul>
Further catalysts post-merger are (increased) dividend payouts and the exit in the short to medium term of the Kingdom of Spain from the capital of the merged entity.
M&amp;A consolidation seems as a reasonable way to reduce costs and protect profits. These can be among domestic banks or, much to the liking of the ECB, between banks domiciled in different EU countries that share common markets, and would create European champions (see list of banks that appear in many rumours at the end of the note).


The new CaixaBank has established the composition of its Board of directors, which will be the largest domestic bank in Spain.
 The independent expert (BDO) has endorsed the exchange ratio,


0.6845 new CaixaBank shares for each Bankia share.


The FROB believes that the operation will have a positive effect on the recovery of the aid.

I recommend keeping an eye on the spread.

It closed on 27 October at 1.66% (gross), not far from the maximum reached on 20 October of 1.73%, and in any case an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close (est. March 2021).


Further catalysts post-merger are (increased) dividend payouts and the exit in the short to medium term of the Kingdom of Spain from the capital of the merged entity.
M&amp;A consolidation seems as a reasonable way to reduce costs and protect profits. These can be among domestic banks or, much to the liking of the ECB, between banks domiciled in different EU countries that share common markets, and would create European champions (see list of banks that appear in many rumours at the end of the note).

Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

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Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

Sberbank of Russia – Ukraine Risks Rising

SBERBANK: After an uneasy stalemate, Russia recently concluded major exercises. Ceasefire negotiations have broken down. SberBank's Ukraine...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts

Fixed income goal posts were clearly moved by Democratic Party control of the Senate. Credit has limited upside in the current reflation scenario....

Hank Calenti, CFA

HSBC’s New AT1: Not Worth Chasing

HSBC remains adrift and a strategic reset could have an outsized impact on longer dated notes. The newly issued AT1 is not worth chasing. We see...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive

I recommend keeping an eye on the spread. It closed today (27 October) at a gross 1.66%, an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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