Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp52" target="_blank"> Harvard Study</a>, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from  Harvard Study, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>€1bn buyback absorbs ~5% of free float by Feb 2026, providing scarcity support and EPS accretion while signaling independence.</li>
<li>UniCredit builds to 26%, cleared up to 29.9%, with 30% as the mandatory offer trigger.</li>
<li>Options market shows heavy 33C positioning; best trade expressions are call spreads or financed risk reversals around MAR disclosures and regulatory milestones.</li>
</ul>


€1bn buyback absorbs ~5% of free float by Feb 2026, providing scarcity support and EPS accretion while signaling independence.
UniCredit builds to 26%, cleared up to 29.9%, with 30% as the mandatory offer trigger.
Options market shows heavy 33C positioning; best trade expressions are call spreads or financed risk reversals around MAR disclosures and regulatory milestones.


CBK: Buyback Tightens Float as UniCredit Nears 30% Threshold

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst, ORTEX

Harry Kalfas

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> has formally withdrawn its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a>, following sustained political resistance from the Italian government.</li>
<li>In parallel, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> has increased its direct ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> from approx. 9% to 20%, with plans to reach 29% in total.</li>
<li>The resulting reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank's</a> free float may lead to index adjustments in phases, with further passive flows expected once the remaining exposure is converted.</li>
</ul>



UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) has formally withdrawn its bid for Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM), following sustained political resistance from the Italian government.
In parallel, UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) has increased its direct ownership in Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) from approx. 9% to 20%, with plans to reach 29% in total.
The resulting reduction in Commerzbank's free float may lead to index adjustments in phases, with further passive flows expected once the remaining exposure is converted.


UniCredit: Drops BPM Bid, Targets 29% Stake in Commerzbank - Index Moves Ahead

<ul>
<li>Strategic Investment with High Returns: UniCredit's acquisition of a 9.7% stake in Alpha Bank at a forward P/E of 7.5x, compared to UniCredit's 8.8x, offers a non-dilutive, high-return investment opportunity.</li>
<li>Optionality for Control: UniCredit has signaled it will seek regulatory approval to raise its Alpha stake to 29.9%, enhancing strategic influence and potentially paving the way for future M&amp;A integration.</li>
<li>Options strategy: Investors can consider a long call spread strategy on Alpha Bank's stock, leveraging potential upside from UniCredit's increased stake while limiting downside risk through defined strike prices.</li>
</ul>


Strategic Investment with High Returns: UniCredit's acquisition of a 9.7% stake in Alpha Bank at a forward P/E of 7.5x, compared to UniCredit's 8.8x, offers a non-dilutive, high-return investment opportunity.
Optionality for Control: UniCredit has signaled it will seek regulatory approval to raise its Alpha stake to 29.9%, enhancing strategic influence and potentially paving the way for future M&amp;A integration.
Options strategy: Investors can consider a long call spread strategy on Alpha Bank's stock, leveraging potential upside from UniCredit's increased stake while limiting downside risk through defined strike prices.


Alpha Accumulation: UniCredit’s Strategic Wedge in Greek Banking

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and...

Charles De Trenck

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

CBK: Buyback Tightens Float as UniCredit Nears 30% Threshold

Commerzbank’s €1bn buyback supports shares and tightens float, while UniCredit’s 26% stake build adds control-premium optionality. Play buyback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UniCredit: Drops BPM Bid, Targets 29% Stake in Commerzbank - Index Moves Ahead

UniCredit withdraws its Banco BPM bid, shifting focus to boosting its Commerzbank direct ownership to 29%, triggering multiple index adjustments.

Harry Kalfas

Alpha Accumulation: UniCredit’s Strategic Wedge in Greek Banking

UniCredit scales up in Alpha Bank with a high-return, non-dilutive investment, signaling deeper M&A intent. Tactical options trades offer...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)