Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)</a> for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy</a> shares for each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy (MNW NZ)</a> is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> due to increased index shares.</li>
<li>As a replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)</a>, there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.</li>
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Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.

Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.


Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy's acquisition of Manawa Energy, leading to a significant change in earnings.</li><li>Contact Energy must deliver at least NZ$30m in synergy benefits to provide shareholder value.</li><li>The deal positions Contact Energy as the second-largest generator with a significant development pipeline, although additional debt could make further developments challenging without an equity raise.</li></ul>

The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy's acquisition of Manawa Energy, leading to a significant change in earnings.Contact Energy must deliver at least NZ$30m in synergy benefits to provide shareholder value.The deal positions Contact Energy as the second-largest generator with a significant development pipeline, although additional debt could make further developments challenging without an equity raise.

<ul><li>3Q25 was a challenging quarter for Contact Energy (CEN) due to record low hydro generation, impacting the generator/retailer business model.</li><li>CEN managed operating conditions reasonably well, with EBITDAF slightly up on 3Q24, but FY25 EBITDAF outlook has been trimmed.</li><li>CEN offers good value with expected solid earnings and dividend growth, with earnings volatility likely driven by weather conditions.</li></ul>

3Q25 was a challenging quarter for Contact Energy (CEN) due to record low hydro generation, impacting the generator/retailer business model.CEN managed operating conditions reasonably well, with EBITDAF slightly up on 3Q24, but FY25 EBITDAF outlook has been trimmed.CEN offers good value with expected solid earnings and dividend growth, with earnings volatility likely driven by weather conditions.

Contact Energy - Rationing the Water—3Q25 Op Stats

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a strong 1H25 result, particularly given the challenges of the dry 2024 winter.</li><li>The +19% increase in underlying EBITDAF was driven by the commissioning of Tauhara.</li><li>CEN’s result exceeded its internal expectations, prompting an FY25 EBITDAF guidance increase. </li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a strong 1H25 result, particularly given the challenges of the dry 2024 winter.The +19% increase in underlying EBITDAF was driven by the commissioning of Tauhara.CEN’s result exceeded its internal expectations, prompting an FY25 EBITDAF guidance increase. 

Contact Energy -  Tauhurrah—1H25 Result

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) had another solid month in December 2024 to complete 1H25 and deliver a record result, driven primarily by the commissioning of the Tauhara geothermal plant.</li><li>While geothermal generation has been strong, hydro generation has been volatile and is once again tracking below average.</li><li>CEN also announced a new seven-year gas contract with OMV, which is positive, though the higher gas price will likely lift wholesale electricity prices and has had an immediate effect on the ASX futures curve. </li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) had another solid month in December 2024 to complete 1H25 and deliver a record result, driven primarily by the commissioning of the Tauhara geothermal plant.While geothermal generation has been strong, hydro generation has been volatile and is once again tracking below average.CEN also announced a new seven-year gas contract with OMV, which is positive, though the higher gas price will likely lift wholesale electricity prices and has had an immediate effect on the ASX futures curve. 

Contact Energy - Growth Coming Through—Dec 24 Op Stats

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Manawa Energy is expected to stop trading after 7 July. There will be an increase in index shares for Contact Energy in global/local indices and...

Brian Freitas

Contact Energy - Cleared for Takeover

The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy's acquisition of Manawa Energy, leading to a significant change in earnings. Contact Energy...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Rationing the Water—3Q25 Op Stats

3Q25 was a challenging quarter for Contact Energy (CEN) due to record low hydro generation, impacting the generator/retailer business model.

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Tauhurrah—1H25 Result

Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a strong 1H25 result, particularly given the challenges of the dry 2024 winter. The +19% increase in underlying...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Growth Coming Through—Dec 24 Op Stats

Contact Energy (CEN) had another solid month in December 2024 to complete 1H25 and deliver a record result, driven primarily by the commissioning...

Forsyth Barr

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