Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9933:1" rel="noopener">Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)</a> over the last month off the back of expected passive flows in February.</li>
<li>Despite the outperformance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> trades at a lower forward PE compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9933:1" rel="noopener">Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)</a>, though it does trade at a higher Price to Book. </li>
<li>There could be large passive inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> and large passive outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9933:1" rel="noopener">Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)</a> in February.</li>
</ul>



Contact Energy (CEN NZ) has outperformed Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ) over the last month off the back of expected passive flows in February.
Despite the outperformance, Contact Energy (CEN NZ) trades at a lower forward PE compared to Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ), though it does trade at a higher Price to Book. 
There could be large passive inflows to Contact Energy (CEN NZ) and large passive outflows from Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ) in February.


NZ: Contact Energy (CEN NZ) Hotter Than Mercury (MCY NZ) As Catalyst Looms

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.</li><li>MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.</li><li>History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.</li></ul>

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.</li><li>The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.</li><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.</li></ul>

October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

<ul><li>New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL), as the largest hydro generator, is the company most at risk from the implementation of a negative policy, and we downgrade it to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>The Frontier report, released 1 October 2025, is the latest in a long line of studies into the electricity market.</li></ul>

New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.Meridian Energy (MEL), as the largest hydro generator, is the company most at risk from the implementation of a negative policy, and we downgrade it to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.The Frontier report, released 1 October 2025, is the latest in a long line of studies into the electricity market.

Electricity Sector - Pondering The Political Landscape—Assessing The Headwind

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) has announced it is acquiring TECT's 4.9% stake in Contact Energy (CEN) for NZ$438m.</li><li>We expect this deal to contribute positively to parent-level free cashflow over the medium term (~+NZ$5m by FY30) as CEN's dividend grows.</li><li>CDC indicated it is in 'constant dialogue' with OpenAI.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) has announced it is acquiring TECT's 4.9% stake in Contact Energy (CEN) for NZ$438m.We expect this deal to contribute positively to parent-level free cashflow over the medium term (~+NZ$5m by FY30) as CEN's dividend grows.CDC indicated it is in 'constant dialogue' with OpenAI.

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

NZ: Contact Energy (CEN NZ) Hotter Than Mercury (MCY NZ) As Catalyst Looms

Contact Energy has outperformed Mercury NZ over the last couple of months. A major catalyst is the potential migration of the stocks between size...

Brian Freitas

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days. MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Pondering The Political Landscape—Assessing The Headwind

New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - Contacting OpenAI

We expect this deal to contribute positively to parent-level free cashflow over the medium term (~+NZ$5m by FY30) as CEN's dividend grows.

Forsyth Barr

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