Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>
Market dominance: CATL remains the dominant battery leader across PV, ESS, CV and exports, with premium-segment strength, early CV penetration growth, rising ESS share and robust RMB100mn+ NP/GWh unit economics.</li>
<li>
Technology: Sodium-ion and semi-solid / condensed batteries extend CATL into value and premium segments, while ESS systems and CV battery swap deepen customer relevance across new growth categories.</li>
<li>
Valuation: Our TP implies 100%+ on A-share and  40%+ on H-share - any consolidation is a strong buy opportunity. High-conviction long-term compounder. H-share vs A-share premium a key watch.</li>
</ul>



Market dominance: CATL remains the dominant battery leader across PV, ESS, CV and exports, with premium-segment strength, early CV penetration growth, rising ESS share and robust RMB100mn+ NP/GWh unit economics.

Technology: Sodium-ion and semi-solid / condensed batteries extend CATL into value and premium segments, while ESS systems and CV battery swap deepen customer relevance across new growth categories.

Valuation: Our TP implies 100%+ on A-share and  40%+ on H-share - any consolidation is a strong buy opportunity. High-conviction long-term compounder. H-share vs A-share premium a key watch.


CATL (3750HK / 3000750 CH): Long-Term Compounder Proving Market Dominance

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals from the Jan to Nov 2025 listing cohort to measure price action around the IPO+6M lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>We note that selling pressure from cornerstone selling overhang is deal-size dependent.</li>
<li>Sponsor mix further refines the screen. Pure international-sponsored deals underperformed other cohorts.</li>
</ul>


We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals from the Jan to Nov 2025 listing cohort to measure price action around the IPO+6M lock-up expiry.
We note that selling pressure from cornerstone selling overhang is deal-size dependent.
Sponsor mix further refines the screen. Pure international-sponsored deals underperformed other cohorts.


HK IPO Essential Statistics: Quantifying Lock-Up Expiry Overhang

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The H-share IPOs of listed A-shares since 2025 witnessed a 6.6pp contraction in HA discount, compared with only 2.7pp for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-device-semiconductor-inc-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/victory-giant-technology-huizhou-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48083:1" rel="noopener">Victory Giant (2476 HK)</a> are the only 3 with both good discount contraction, fast growth and large size.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)</a> is large in size but not as fast in growth. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delton-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47605:1" rel="noopener">Delton Technology (1989 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation is relatively small.  </li>
</ul>


The H-share IPOs of listed A-shares since 2025 witnessed a 6.6pp contraction in HA discount, compared with only 2.7pp for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index.

GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Montage Technology (6809 HK), and Victory Giant (2476 HK) are the only 3 with both good discount contraction, fast growth and large size.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) is large in size but not as fast in growth. Delton Technology (1989 HK)'s market capitalisation is relatively small.  


HK Strategy: H-Share IPOs - Both Growth and Size Count Now

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)</a> discounted H-share placement triggered a sharp drop, but the capital raise appears opportunistic rather than defensive, funding global expansion and zero-carbon initiatives.</li>
<li>CATL A-Share <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">(300750 CH)</a> resilience suggests the H-share weakness may be largely placement-specific rather than a broader reassessment of CATL’s long-term outlook, leaving scope for a rebound from depressed levels.</li>
<li>Elevated, but not excessive, implied volatility supports a potential put-underwriting strategy for investors who expect limited further downside in the H-Shares and possible volatility normalisation.</li>
</ul>



Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) discounted H-share placement triggered a sharp drop, but the capital raise appears opportunistic rather than defensive, funding global expansion and zero-carbon initiatives.
CATL A-Share (300750 CH) resilience suggests the H-share weakness may be largely placement-specific rather than a broader reassessment of CATL’s long-term outlook, leaving scope for a rebound from depressed levels.
Elevated, but not excessive, implied volatility supports a potential put-underwriting strategy for investors who expect limited further downside in the H-Shares and possible volatility normalisation.


CATL H-Share (3750 HK) Placement Dip Opens Put-Underwriting Setup

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

China

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. operates as a battery products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells power battery materials, energy storage batteries energy storage battery cells, systems, and other products. Contemporary Amperex Technology also provides batteries recycling services.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

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Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

CATL (3750HK / 3000750 CH): Long-Term Compounder Proving Market Dominance

CATL maintains market dominance with strong presence in various battery sectors and positioned for the future with many first-to-market...

Raj S, CA, CFA

HK IPO Essential Statistics: Quantifying Lock-Up Expiry Overhang

HK IPO Essential Stat: We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals listed in 2025 to quantify the selling pressure upon lock-up expiry.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CATL (3750HK / 3000750 CH): Long-Term Compounder Proving Market Dominance

​CATL maintains market dominance with strong presence in various battery sectors and positioned for the future with many first-to-market...

Raj S, CA, CFA

HK IPO Essential Statistics: Quantifying Lock-Up Expiry Overhang

HK IPO Essential Stat: We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals listed in 2025 to quantify the selling pressure upon lock-up expiry.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: H-Share IPOs - Both Growth and Size Count Now

​H-share IPOs of A-shares since 2025 show significant HA discount contraction, with GigaDevice Semiconductor, Montage Technology, and Victory Giant...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CATL H-Share (3750 HK) Placement Dip Opens Put-Underwriting Setup

CATL H-shares (3750 HK) have rebounded from their post-placement lows but still trade below the pre-offering level. With IV still in the low 40s,...

Gaudenz Schneider

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

CATL maintains market dominance with strong presence in various battery sectors and positioned for the future with many first-to-market...

H-share IPOs of A-shares since 2025 show significant HA discount contraction, with GigaDevice Semiconductor, Montage Technology, and Victory Giant...