HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>YTD, the share prices of the H-share IPOs of A-shares increased by an average of 30.2%, and the H-A discount narrowed by 14.8pp, but the range is wide.</li>
<li>The growth outlook, as reflected by the 3-year EPS CAGR, is the key driver for the performance and reduction in H-A share discounts.</li>
<li>Market cap, absolute PER multiples, and even relative PER ratios are not the major factors supporting their post-IPO performance.</li>
</ul>


YTD, the share prices of the H-share IPOs of A-shares increased by an average of 30.2%, and the H-A discount narrowed by 14.8pp, but the range is wide.
The growth outlook, as reflected by the 3-year EPS CAGR, is the key driver for the performance and reduction in H-A share discounts.
Market cap, absolute PER multiples, and even relative PER ratios are not the major factors supporting their post-IPO performance.


HK Strategy: How to Play the Future H IPOs of the As

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>CATL / In Depth: CATL’s bet on Europe shows challenges of recreating supply chains abroad</li><li>Summer Davos /: Increasing incomes key to boosting domestic demand, professor says</li><li>Gold /: China opens first offshore gold vault to attract global investors</li></ul>

CATL / In Depth: CATL’s bet on Europe shows challenges of recreating supply chains abroadSummer Davos /: Increasing incomes key to boosting domestic demand, professor saysGold /: China opens first offshore gold vault to attract global investors

CX Daily: CATL’s Bet on Europe Shows Challenges of Recreating Supply Chains Abroad 

<ul>
<li>The 6 H-share IPOs of the listed A-share companies YTD have seen their H-A discount narrowing from an average of 31% during IPO to 15.5% currently.  </li>
<li>Larger-Cap ones tend to be priced and traded at a smaller discount to their A-shares. However, they are not necessarily those seeing the most significant narrowing in discount. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (3288 HK)</a> may further narrow its discount, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-sanhua-intelligent-controls" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45277:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK)</a> also sees upside from such a perspective. </li>
</ul>


The 6 H-share IPOs of the listed A-share companies YTD have seen their H-A discount narrowing from an average of 31% during IPO to 15.5% currently.  
Larger-Cap ones tend to be priced and traded at a smaller discount to their A-shares. However, they are not necessarily those seeing the most significant narrowing in discount. 

Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (3288 HK) may further narrow its discount, while Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) also sees upside from such a perspective. 


HK Strategy: Trend of Narrowing H-A IPO Discount

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A Bloomberg <a href="https://archive.is/6X0kZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">op-ed piece on the 5th June</a> concludes it is time to move on from "from an archaic currency regime". That conclusion appears presumptuous. And uninformed.</li>
<li>A key tenent of this piece is that HK's benchmark interest rates are (or were) significantly - and stubbornly - lower than US rates. Yet this "anomaly" is easily explained.</li>
<li>The article fails to discuss the impact from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>'s IPO on the peg;  and even what would replace the peg (IF it were replaced).</li>
</ul>


A Bloomberg op-ed piece on the 5th June concludes it is time to move on from "from an archaic currency regime". That conclusion appears presumptuous. And uninformed.
A key tenent of this piece is that HK's benchmark interest rates are (or were) significantly - and stubbornly - lower than US rates. Yet this "anomaly" is easily explained.
The article fails to discuss the impact from CATL (3750 HK)'s IPO on the peg;  and even what would replace the peg (IF it were replaced).


Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL-SR SP)

<ul>
<li>WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
Most overbought: Meta, Hitachi Ltd, SK Hynix  Most oversold: Meituan, ICICI Bank, HKEX and Clearing, Ping An Insurance, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Komatsu, Hanwha Solutions, Zijin Mining, Shin Etsu Chemical</li>
</ul>


WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Most overbought: Meta, Hitachi Ltd, SK Hynix  Most oversold: Meituan, ICICI Bank, HKEX and Clearing, Ping An Insurance, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Komatsu, Hanwha Solutions, Zijin Mining, Shin Etsu Chemical


WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: SK Hynix, Meituan, ICICI, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Zijin M

China

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) is a Chinese battery manufacturer and technology company specializing in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage systems. It is the world's largest producer of EV and energy storage batteries, also offering battery materials and recycling services. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Ningde, Fujian province, China.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

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Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

HK Strategy: How to Play the Future H IPOs of the As

H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen a 30.2% increase in share prices YTD, with a growth outlook driving performance and narrowing H-A discounts....

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: CATL’s Bet on Europe Shows Challenges of Recreating Supply Chains Abroad

TOP STORIES CATL / In Depth: CATL’s bet on Europe shows challenges of recreating supply chains abroad When Chinese battery giant Contemporary...

Caixin Global

HK Strategy: Trend of Narrowing H-A IPO Discount

H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen narrowing discounts, with larger-caps trading at smaller discounts, but not the ones with the largest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

No, Hong Kong Won't Abandon The Peg

Given Hong Kong is a very externalised economy, the peg works. Until the RMB is convertible (which means abolishing capital controls - a...

David Blennerhassett

WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: SK Hynix, Meituan, ICICI, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Zijin M

Weekly Macro Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setups - Quantitative models tracking momentum extremes across Asian/Global equities and commodities to...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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HK Strategy: How to Play the Future H IPOs of the As

​H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen a 30.2% increase in share prices YTD, with a growth outlook driving performance and narrowing H-A discounts....

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: CATL’s Bet on Europe Shows Challenges of Recreating Supply Chains Abroad

TOP STORIES CATL / In Depth: CATL’s bet on Europe shows challenges of recreating supply chains abroad When Chinese battery giant Contemporary...

Caixin Global

HK Strategy: Trend of Narrowing H-A IPO Discount

​H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen narrowing discounts, with larger-caps trading at smaller discounts, but not the ones with the largest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

No, Hong Kong Won't Abandon The Peg

Given Hong Kong is a very externalised economy, the peg works. Until the RMB is convertible (which means abolishing capital controls - a...

David Blennerhassett

WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: SK Hynix, Meituan, ICICI, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Zijin M

Weekly Macro Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setups - Quantitative models tracking momentum extremes across Asian/Global equities and commodities to...

Nico Rosti

H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen a 30.2% increase in share prices YTD, with a growth outlook driving performance and narrowing H-A discounts....

H-share IPOs of A-shares have seen narrowing discounts, with larger-caps trading at smaller discounts, but not the ones with the largest...