Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>As US rate hikes are pushed out, the long end of the bond market continues to weaken</li>
<li>October should provide the resolution as to whether the market catches up or catches down</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
As US rate hikes are pushed out, the long end of the bond market continues to weaken
October should provide the resolution as to whether the market catches up or catches down


Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.</li>
<li>Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.</li>
<li>The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).</li>
</ul>


LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).


Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

<ul>
<li>LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.</li>
<li>COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.</li>
<li>Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&amp;A opportunities.</li>
</ul>


LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.
COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.
Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&amp;A opportunities.


Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

<ul>
<li>Chile's copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.</li>
<li>Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China's strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.</li>
<li>A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck's momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.</li>
</ul>


Chile's copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.
Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China's strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.
A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck's momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.


Copper's Bull Case Is No Longer a Story of Hope, but Scarcity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Global Bond Yields and the Dollar continue their move higher</li>
<li>Nasdaq prints new highs while weakness lurks beneath the surface</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Global Bond Yields and the Dollar continue their move higher
Nasdaq prints new highs while weakness lurks beneath the surface


Overview #79 — Dragged Up or Dragged Down

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Overview #80 — The Equaliser

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at rate hike expectations in the US post the recent economic...

Rikki Malik

Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

Copper’s physical market remains tight despite easing backwardation, while bullish options positioning contrasts with trimmed managed-money longs...

Mint Finance

Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

Chile’s weakening output and fresh DRC export curbs are deepening concerns over mined copper supply, with China’s softer import demand emerging as...

Mint Finance

Copper's Bull Case Is No Longer a Story of Hope, but Scarcity

Physical market tightness is replacing macro narratives, as Chile's supply disruptions and China's import demand reinforce a stronger long-term...

Mint Finance

Overview #79 — Dragged Up or Dragged Down

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the breakout in bond yields and the dollar, which is...

Rikki Malik

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