Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Upstream tightness is real, with TC/RC turning negative and sulphuric acid availability tightening, but refined supply continues to expand, preventing system-wide tightening. </li>
<li>Demand growth c.1.5–1.6% (2026 vs 2.1% prior), reducing absorption capacity. The balance is shifting back to surplus, with +96kt (2026) and c.300-400kt (2027), even after disruptions.</li>
<li>Inventories (&gt;1.0mt peak; 745kt LME+SHFE in Mar, +56% m/m), muted premiums (US$30–60/t vs &gt;US$100/t in tight markets), and contango (–US$20/t cash–3M) confirm supply is delayed, not removed.</li>
</ul>


Upstream tightness is real, with TC/RC turning negative and sulphuric acid availability tightening, but refined supply continues to expand, preventing system-wide tightening. 
Demand growth c.1.5–1.6% (2026 vs 2.1% prior), reducing absorption capacity. The balance is shifting back to surplus, with +96kt (2026) and c.300-400kt (2027), even after disruptions.
Inventories (&gt;1.0mt peak; 745kt LME+SHFE in Mar, +56% m/m), muted premiums (US$30–60/t vs &gt;US$100/t in tight markets), and contango (–US$20/t cash–3M) confirm supply is delayed, not removed.


Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>The IRI/CCSR prediction plume goes out every month and travels far — onto commodity desks, into insurance notes, through agricultural outlooks.</li><li>It is among the most widely shared forecasts in macro, and among the least well read.</li><li>We backtested all 291 plume starts since May 2002, roughly 6,800 model runs, against the observed Oceanic Niño Index. Three things stand out.</li></ul>

The IRI/CCSR prediction plume goes out every month and travels far — onto commodity desks, into insurance notes, through agricultural outlooks.It is among the most widely shared forecasts in macro, and among the least well read.We backtested all 291 plume starts since May 2002, roughly 6,800 model runs, against the observed Oceanic Niño Index. Three things stand out.

<ul><li>Today I don’t want to talk about commodity markets - today I want to present you a new strategy we designed over the past years.</li><li>Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.</li><li>But what if I tell you there is an equity staretgy that translates our framework to equities: has no signifacant correlation to the broad equity market</li></ul>

Today I don’t want to talk about commodity markets - today I want to present you a new strategy we designed over the past years.Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.But what if I tell you there is an equity staretgy that translates our framework to equities: has no signifacant correlation to the broad equity market

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Government bond markets continue to exert pressure on other assets</li>
<li>The Japanese Yen has likely confirmed a trend change - expect more volatility</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Government bond markets continue to exert pressure on other assets
The Japanese Yen has likely confirmed a trend change - expect more volatility


<ul><li>On my socials the chart claiming El Nino leads world food prices by 12 months is making the rounds again, but the correlation behind it is actually weak (just +0.13, barely significant and explaining under 2% of the variation)</li><li>That doesn't change our view that we still expect upward pressure on ag commodity prices this cycle, based not on one macro chart but on the mechanism-specific signals we've tested individually…</li><li>Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino pattern.</li></ul>

On my socials the chart claiming El Nino leads world food prices by 12 months is making the rounds again, but the correlation behind it is actually weak (just +0.13, barely significant and explaining under 2% of the variation)That doesn't change our view that we still expect upward pressure on ag commodity prices this cycle, based not on one macro chart but on the mechanism-specific signals we've tested individually…Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino pattern.

Ags did something they did last time in 2009

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Re-sharing as recent copper strength continues to raise the question of whether upstream tightness is genuinely transmitting into the refined...

Duncan Chan

3 Hard Truths About ENSO Forecast

The IRI/CCSR prediction plume goes out every month and travels far — onto commodity desks, into insurance notes, through agricultural outlooks.

The Commodity Report

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.

The Commodity Report

Overview #77 – Burning Down the House

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. More of the same - higher oil, higher yields, and the JPY finally...

Rikki Malik

Ags did something they did last time in 2009

Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino...

The Commodity Report

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