AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s rising inventories and receivables have raised questions about early signs of channel digestion, but downstream balance sheets tell a different story.</li>
<li>Dell’s working capital expansion and record $43B AI backlog suggest Nvidia shipments are not stalling in the channel.</li>
<li>CoreWeave’s $66.8B backlog and debt-funded infrastructure highlight how the real risk lies in financing durability.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s rising inventories and receivables have raised questions about early signs of channel digestion, but downstream balance sheets tell a different story.
Dell’s working capital expansion and record $43B AI backlog suggest Nvidia shipments are not stalling in the channel.
CoreWeave’s $66.8B backlog and debt-funded infrastructure highlight how the real risk lies in financing durability.


Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>All eligible US IPOs that went public from 1 November 2025 to 31 January 2026 will be added to a major US index in March 2026.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medline-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45954:1" rel="noopener">Medline (MDLN US)</a> is expected to be the largest IPO addition in terms of market cap at a valuation of $60bn following its listing on 17 December 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beta-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45894:1" rel="noopener">BETA Technologies (BETA US)</a> is projected to be included in the lower size segment following a 50% price tumble since its IPO on 4 November.</li>
</ul>


All eligible US IPOs that went public from 1 November 2025 to 31 January 2026 will be added to a major US index in March 2026.

Medline (MDLN US) is expected to be the largest IPO addition in terms of market cap at a valuation of $60bn following its listing on 17 December 2025.

BETA Technologies (BETA US) is projected to be included in the lower size segment following a 50% price tumble since its IPO on 4 November.


US Index IPO Forecast - Mar26: 8 Additions Including Medline & BETA Technologies

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Last week, SpaceX announced the completion of a tender offer valuing the company at $800B, and reports now suggest the company is targeting a 2026 public listing at a $1.5T valuation.</li><li>SpaceX's expected 2026 IPO at a market cap of ~$1.5T embeds this kind of optionality the way Tesla embeds FSD, re-rating the company from a launch utility to be valued like a Boeing or Lockheed (.3 to 1x) to an infrastructure platform like Nvidia (30x+).</li><li>SpaceX uniquely positioned to capture the upside of 1) vertical integration with xAI ($3.2B annualized revenue in July 2025, up 3,100% YoY) for cheaper training &amp; inference, 2) being core infrastructure for Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) for the next trillion dollars in spend on AI.</li></ul>

Last week, SpaceX announced the completion of a tender offer valuing the company at $800B, and reports now suggest the company is targeting a 2026 public listing at a $1.5T valuation.SpaceX's expected 2026 IPO at a market cap of ~$1.5T embeds this kind of optionality the way Tesla embeds FSD, re-rating the company from a launch utility to be valued like a Boeing or Lockheed (.3 to 1x) to an infrastructure platform like Nvidia (30x+).SpaceX uniquely positioned to capture the upside of 1) vertical integration with xAI ($3.2B annualized revenue in July 2025, up 3,100% YoY) for cheaper training &amp; inference, 2) being core infrastructure for Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) for the next trillion dollars in spend on AI.

<ul>
<li>Intel hired Tan specifically for his deep ecosystem ties. Demanding he wield that influence while having zero financial footprint in the industry is a naive contradiction.</li>
<li>The Rivos bidding war was a tactical masterclass that established a valuation floor and forced a competitor to pay a premium.</li>
<li>While the media frets over portfolio disclosures, Tan has doubled the stock and secured billions in capital in a market otherwise built on circular debt bubbles.</li>
</ul>


Intel hired Tan specifically for his deep ecosystem ties. Demanding he wield that influence while having zero financial footprint in the industry is a naive contradiction.
The Rivos bidding war was a tactical masterclass that established a valuation floor and forced a competitor to pay a premium.
While the media frets over portfolio disclosures, Tan has doubled the stock and secured billions in capital in a market otherwise built on circular debt bubbles.


CEO With Muddy Boots: Why Intel Needs Lip-Bu Tan’s Baggage

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seagate-technology-holdings-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9129:1" rel="noopener">Seagate Technology (STX US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-digital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1094:1" rel="noopener">Western Digital (WDC US)</a> are the top forecasted additions with the highest price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lululemon-athletica-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8316:1" rel="noopener">Lululemon Athletica (LULU US)</a> are the forecasted deletions with the largest price drop.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrovial-se-d1237de2-ee34-4fbb-8db7-53dd686904f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46086:1" rel="noopener">Ferrovial (FER US)</a> can be a surprise addition depending on the treatment of its foreign listing.</li>
</ul>



Seagate Technology (STX US), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and Western Digital (WDC US) are the top forecasted additions with the highest price surge.

Trade Desk (TTD US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU US) are the forecasted deletions with the largest price drop.

Ferrovial (FER US) can be a surprise addition depending on the treatment of its foreign listing.


Nasdaq100 December 2025 Forecast (Final): 12 Changes

United States

CoreWeave, Inc. is a specialized cloud infrastructure company that provides high-performance computing resources optimized for workloads such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, visual effects, and batch processing. The company's CoreWeave Cloud Platform consists of proprietary software and cloud services that deliver the automation and efficiency needed to manage complex AI infrastructure at scale. Its platform supports the development and use of ground-breaking models and the delivery of the next generation of AI applications. CoreWeave operates a GPU-first architecture, optimized for training and inference of generative AI models, and also targets scientific and financial computing, as well as real-time 3D rendering needs. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Livingston, New Jersey.

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CoreWeave (CRWV US)

Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

Concerns about Nvidia's rising inventories and record backlogs from Dell and CoreWeave suggest strong demand and growth potential in the AI market....

Mint Finance

US Index IPO Forecast - Mar26: 8 Additions Including Medline & BETA Technologies

MDLN is set to be the largest US IPO index addition in March with a $60bn market cap, while BETA and YSS are poised for significant September...

Dimitris Ioannidis

CoreWeave Of Space

TL;DR: Completing a tender at $800B and guiding towards a reported $1.5T 2026 IPO, SpaceX is now positioning itself & Starlink as core...

Sacra

CEO With Muddy Boots: Why Intel Needs Lip-Bu Tan’s Baggage

Intel hired Lip-Bu Tan for his industry connections, but expecting him to use them without financial involvement is naive.

Mint Finance

Nasdaq100 December 2025 Forecast (Final): 12 Changes

STX, ALNY, WDC are the top forecasted addition. TTD, ON, LULU are the top forecasted deletions. FER can be a surprise addition displacing EBAY.

Dimitris Ioannidis

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Dividend (Yield)

Reading Nvidia Through the Stack: Dell and CoreWeave Show Deployment Still Scaling

Concerns about Nvidia's rising inventories and record backlogs from Dell and CoreWeave suggest strong demand and growth potential in the AI market....

Mint Finance

US Index IPO Forecast - Mar26: 8 Additions Including Medline & BETA Technologies

MDLN is set to be the largest US IPO index addition in March with a $60bn market cap, while BETA and YSS are poised for significant September...

Dimitris Ioannidis

CoreWeave Of Space

TL;DR: Completing a tender at $800B and guiding towards a reported $1.5T 2026 IPO, SpaceX is now positioning itself & Starlink as core...

Sacra

CEO With Muddy Boots: Why Intel Needs Lip-Bu Tan’s Baggage

​Intel hired Lip-Bu Tan for his industry connections, but expecting him to use them without financial involvement is naive.

Mint Finance

Nasdaq100 December 2025 Forecast (Final): 12 Changes

​STX, ALNY, WDC are the top forecasted addition. TTD, ON, LULU are the top forecasted deletions. FER can be a surprise addition displacing EBAY.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Intel hired Lip-Bu Tan for his industry connections, but expecting him to use them without financial involvement is naive.

STX, ALNY, WDC are the top forecasted addition. TTD, ON, LULU are the top forecasted deletions. FER can be a surprise addition displacing EBAY.