Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Hurricane Beryl started out as a category 5 hurricane, made landfall on the Texas Coast early Monday (08/July) &amp; weakened to a Tropical Depression.</li>
<li>Beryl has weakened and likely not significantly impact corn and soybean prices in the long run. Storm led rains will likely have a bearish effect on prices.</li>
<li>Beryl might bring much needed rain to Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Ohio, potentially providing favorable weather for corn and soybean growth in these areas.</li>
</ul>


Hurricane Beryl started out as a category 5 hurricane, made landfall on the Texas Coast early Monday (08/July) &amp; weakened to a Tropical Depression.
Beryl has weakened and likely not significantly impact corn and soybean prices in the long run. Storm led rains will likely have a bearish effect on prices.
Beryl might bring much needed rain to Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Ohio, potentially providing favorable weather for corn and soybean growth in these areas.


Corn & Soybeans Yields Stand to Benefit from Storm Beryl Even as It Leaves Destruction in Its Path

<ul>
<li>Corn and Wheat planted acreage are down 3% and 5% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, Soybean total planted area is up by 5% YoY compared to 2023.</li>
<li>Planted acreage and ending stocks drove prices down for wheat and corn. Soybeans bucked the trend as reported acreage fell short of WASDE estimates by 400k acres.</li>
<li>A positive picture for 2024 planting season is visible, with the early benefits of warm temperatures and improved moisture levels setting the stage for strong yields.</li>
</ul>


Corn and Wheat planted acreage are down 3% and 5% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, Soybean total planted area is up by 5% YoY compared to 2023.
Planted acreage and ending stocks drove prices down for wheat and corn. Soybeans bucked the trend as reported acreage fell short of WASDE estimates by 400k acres.
A positive picture for 2024 planting season is visible, with the early benefits of warm temperatures and improved moisture levels setting the stage for strong yields.


Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

<ul>
<li>Corn futures show high potential for momentum trading, peaking in early-year gains and declining from June, matching seasonal harvest patterns in major producers like China and Brazil.</li>
<li>Over the past five years, momentum trading in soybean futures outperformed other crops with average annual returns of USD 13,600, though 2024 saw significant losses reflecting its counter cyclical performance.</li>
<li>Bearish outlook for corn in 2024 due to increased global production outlook from key regions, bearish shifts by asset managers, and USDA forecasts predicting lower season-average prices.</li>
</ul>


Corn futures show high potential for momentum trading, peaking in early-year gains and declining from June, matching seasonal harvest patterns in major producers like China and Brazil.
Over the past five years, momentum trading in soybean futures outperformed other crops with average annual returns of USD 13,600, though 2024 saw significant losses reflecting its counter cyclical performance.
Bearish outlook for corn in 2024 due to increased global production outlook from key regions, bearish shifts by asset managers, and USDA forecasts predicting lower season-average prices.


Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I quickly realized that most PMs in the region agreed on my take on the imminent risk of a devaluation of the CNY.</li>
<li>USD/CNH call options are popular/consensus in the Asian Macro PM space, but interestingly there is no consensus around the contagion from a devaluation of the USDCNY.</li>
<li>The discussions I had pointed in all directions, meaning that a CNY devaluation holds the potential to turn into a macro earthquake, despite it already being a consensus position.</li>
</ul>


I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I quickly realized that most PMs in the region agreed on my take on the imminent risk of a devaluation of the CNY.
USD/CNH call options are popular/consensus in the Asian Macro PM space, but interestingly there is no consensus around the contagion from a devaluation of the USDCNY.
The discussions I had pointed in all directions, meaning that a CNY devaluation holds the potential to turn into a macro earthquake, despite it already being a consensus position.


Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

<ul>
<li>Corn prices are presently being pressured by ample supplies owing to the record US harvest.</li>
<li>Corn prices face an upside risk owing to elevated demand for ethanol and supply uncertainty from the South American harvest.</li>
<li>Premium for long-dated corn futures over near-term futures is on the rise. A calendar spread can be used to express this view. </li>
</ul>


Corn prices are presently being pressured by ample supplies owing to the record US harvest.
Corn prices face an upside risk owing to elevated demand for ethanol and supply uncertainty from the South American harvest.
Premium for long-dated corn futures over near-term futures is on the rise. A calendar spread can be used to express this view. 


Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

United States

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

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Corn Active Contract (C A COMDTY)

Corn & Soybeans Yields Stand to Benefit from Storm Beryl Even as It Leaves Destruction in Its Path

Storm Beryl has flooded roads, closed ports, cancelled >1,300 flights, blacked out 2.7m homes, and killed >three people. It could spawn tornadoes...

Mint Finance

Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

Warm spring led to rapid planting for summer crops. Only 4% & 15% of intended corn & soybean acreage remain unplanted. Warmth aided winter wheat...

Mint Finance

Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities

Momentum trading in agricultural commodities uses seasonal trends and fundamentals to optimize strategies for corn, wheat, and soybean futures....

Mint Finance

Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

Happy Sunday from a sunny Copenhagen. I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I...

Steno Research

Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Corn & Soybeans Yields Stand to Benefit from Storm Beryl Even as It Leaves Destruction in Its Path

Storm Beryl has flooded roads, closed ports, cancelled >1,300 flights, blacked out 2.7m homes, and killed >three people. It could spawn tornadoes...

Mint Finance

Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

Warm spring led to rapid planting for summer crops. Only 4% & 15% of intended corn & soybean acreage remain unplanted. Warmth aided winter wheat...

Mint Finance

Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities

Momentum trading in agricultural commodities uses seasonal trends and fundamentals to optimize strategies for corn, wheat, and soybean futures....

Mint Finance

Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

Happy Sunday from a sunny Copenhagen. I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I...

Steno Research

Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

​Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.

Mint Finance

Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.