European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

 ACCIONA Energias Renovabl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Acciona increased ownership in Acciona Energía to 91.11%, reviving exclusion-offer speculation less than five years after the 2021 IPO at €26.73/share, while the stock still trades below flotation price.</li>
<li>Private-Market renewable transactions continue implying stronger valuations than listed renewables equities, while Acciona Energía keeps monetising assets at attractive metrics despite weak sector sentiment and recurring balance-sheet concerns.</li>
<li>Our scenario analysis implies ~15% expected upside from current levels, with Spanish delisting rules, minority protections and the shrinking free float increasingly supporting strategic simplification optionality over medium term.</li>
</ul>


Acciona increased ownership in Acciona Energía to 91.11%, reviving exclusion-offer speculation less than five years after the 2021 IPO at €26.73/share, while the stock still trades below flotation price.
Private-Market renewable transactions continue implying stronger valuations than listed renewables equities, while Acciona Energía keeps monetising assets at attractive metrics despite weak sector sentiment and recurring balance-sheet concerns.
Our scenario analysis implies ~15% expected upside from current levels, with Spanish delisting rules, minority protections and the shrinking free float increasingly supporting strategic simplification optionality over medium term.


Acciona/Acciona Energías Renovables: 91% Owned, Still Below IPO

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Index Rebalance

Naturgy Energy Group SA / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following the June IBEX review, Naturgy’s free-float coefficient rises from 20% to 60%, potentially increasing its benchmark weight from roughly 0.6% to around 1.8%.</li>
<li>We estimate incremental IBEX-linked demand of €180–300m for Naturgy, versus €30–55m for Indra and €10–20m for Solaria, based on benchmark rebalancing requirements.</li>
<li>The IBEX 35 composition remains unchanged, but the coefficient revisions create a meaningful rebalance. For passive investors, the June review is primarily a Naturgy event.</li>
</ul>


Following the June IBEX review, Naturgy’s free-float coefficient rises from 20% to 60%, potentially increasing its benchmark weight from roughly 0.6% to around 1.8%.
We estimate incremental IBEX-linked demand of €180–300m for Naturgy, versus €30–55m for Indra and €10–20m for Solaria, based on benchmark rebalancing requirements.
The IBEX 35 composition remains unchanged, but the coefficient revisions create a meaningful rebalance. For passive investors, the June review is primarily a Naturgy event.


IBEX Review: Naturgy Emerges as the Main Beneficiary

<ul>
<li>Técnicas Reunidas appears the leading candidate to re-enter the IBEX 35 on 11 June, supported by 62.4% free float, stronger liquidity and superior computable capitalisation versus Acciona Energía.</li>
<li>Our reconstruction places TRE at 0.27–0.28% of adjusted IBEX capitalisation, marginally below the 0.30% inclusion threshold, making the CAT decision finely balanced but actionable.</li>
<li>A TRE inclusion / ANE deletion could generate €100–195m of technical demand for TRE and equivalent selling pressure in ANE, creating a compelling index-arbitrage setup.</li>
</ul>


Técnicas Reunidas appears the leading candidate to re-enter the IBEX 35 on 11 June, supported by 62.4% free float, stronger liquidity and superior computable capitalisation versus Acciona Energía.
Our reconstruction places TRE at 0.27–0.28% of adjusted IBEX capitalisation, marginally below the 0.30% inclusion threshold, making the CAT decision finely balanced but actionable.
A TRE inclusion / ANE deletion could generate €100–195m of technical demand for TRE and equivalent selling pressure in ANE, creating a compelling index-arbitrage setup.


Tecnicas Reunidas: IBEX 35 Re-Entry in Sight?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The benefits of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a> China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. </li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continue its Brazil market launch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.</li>
<li>Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. 
Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

Spain

Corporacion Acciona Energias Renovables SA, doing business as Acciona Energia, operates as a renewable energy utility. The Company owns and develops renewable energy technologies including onshore wind, solar PV, hydraulic, thermal, biomass, and storage assets. Acciona Energia is vertically integrated across the renewable energy value chain and serves customers worldwide.

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ACCIONA Energias Renovabl (ANE SM)

Acciona/Acciona Energías Renovables: 91% Owned, Still Below IPO

Acciona now owns 91.11% of Acciona Energía, yet the stock still trades below IPO despite asset sales at stronger private-market valuations....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

IBEX Review: Naturgy Emerges as the Main Beneficiary

No company entered or left the IBEX 35. Yet the June review may still trigger hundreds of millions of euros in benchmark-driven flows. .

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Tecnicas Reunidas: IBEX 35 Re-Entry in Sight?

A TRE inclusion / ANE deletion could generate €100–195m of technical demand for TRE and equivalent selling pressure in ANE, creating a compelling...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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