Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China’s economic data is continuing to surprise on the upside.</li>
<li>Investors are starting to take notice and good news is not being ignored – a sign of a change in sentiment.</li>
<li>Economically sensitive and commodity-related sectors a good hunting ground for absolute returns</li>
</ul>


China’s economic data is continuing to surprise on the upside.
Investors are starting to take notice and good news is not being ignored – a sign of a change in sentiment.
Economically sensitive and commodity-related sectors a good hunting ground for absolute returns


What's up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> will benefit from the oil supply worry as Israel and Iran are unlikely to reach a "real" peace agreement in the short term. </li>
<li>The worry, or actual, closure of Hormuz will raise VLCC rates by escalating reserve building, increasing demand for alternative routes, a higher risk premium, and panic chartering.</li>
<li>After yesterday's retreat, CSET trades on an undemanding 5.8x PER and 8.8% yield for FY25F. With over 12% ROE, its 0.73x P/B is cheap, below the average since 2023. </li>
</ul>



Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) will benefit from the oil supply worry as Israel and Iran are unlikely to reach a "real" peace agreement in the short term. 
The worry, or actual, closure of Hormuz will raise VLCC rates by escalating reserve building, increasing demand for alternative routes, a higher risk premium, and panic chartering.
After yesterday's retreat, CSET trades on an undemanding 5.8x PER and 8.8% yield for FY25F. With over 12% ROE, its 0.73x P/B is cheap, below the average since 2023. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): A Viable Play on the Israel-Iran Conflict

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

COSCO SHIPPING Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.</li>
<li>It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a></strong> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

<ul>
<li>The whole sector has been derated as the oil prices collapsed</li>
<li>The capital cycle story is still intact and gets stronger as time passes</li>
<li>There is a margin of safety in the current valuations</li>
</ul>


The whole sector has been derated as the oil prices collapsed
The capital cycle story is still intact and gets stronger as time passes
There is a margin of safety in the current valuations


Opportunities in Tankers (1138.HK) As the Sector Has Discounted Most of the Issues Facing It

<ul>
<li>The P/B multiple of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (H) (1138 HK)</a> has pulled back to 0.8x now, from 1.3x three months ago. The risk-reward payoff has improved.</li>
<li>Historically, there is no long-term correlation between oil prices and share prices. Hence, we should not be overfocused on the recent pullback in oil prices.</li>
<li>Although the market consensus is high, FY24 should still see growth. The 3Q24 VLCC spot rate is 27.4% higher YoY, potentially boosting quarterly results and sustaining a high FY24 yield. </li>
</ul>


The P/B multiple of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (H) (1138 HK) has pulled back to 0.8x now, from 1.3x three months ago. The risk-reward payoff has improved.
Historically, there is no long-term correlation between oil prices and share prices. Hence, we should not be overfocused on the recent pullback in oil prices.
Although the market consensus is high, FY24 should still see growth. The 3Q24 VLCC spot rate is 27.4% higher YoY, potentially boosting quarterly results and sustaining a high FY24 yield. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now

China

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is a specialized company primarily engaged in the global shipment of energy, including crude oil, refined oil products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It also provides vessel chartering and shipping agency services. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was established in 2016.

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COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

What's up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!

China's stronger economic data is catching investors' attention, signalling a shift in sentiment and highlighting opportunities in economically...

Rikki Malik

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): A Viable Play on the Israel-Iran Conflict

CSET is poised to benefit from oil supply worries amid Israel-Iran tensions. A closure of Hormuz will raise rates by increasing alternative route...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

Opportunities in Tankers (1138.HK) As the Sector Has Discounted Most of the Issues Facing It

The current negative narrative around the sector of higher oil production, lessening of sanctions and an upcoming recession provides an opportunity

Rikki Malik

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now

COSCO Shipping Energy issued a positive profit alert indicating net profit for FY24 at Rmb3.96bn, a 17.2% YoY increase. More importantly, the 4Q24...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!

​China's stronger economic data is catching investors' attention, signalling a shift in sentiment and highlighting opportunities in economically...

Rikki Malik

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): A Viable Play on the Israel-Iran Conflict

​CSET is poised to benefit from oil supply worries amid Israel-Iran tensions. A closure of Hormuz will raise rates by increasing alternative route...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

Opportunities in Tankers (1138.HK) As the Sector Has Discounted Most of the Issues Facing It

The current negative narrative around the sector of higher oil production, lessening of sanctions and an upcoming recession provides an opportunity

Rikki Malik

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now

COSCO Shipping Energy issued a positive profit alert indicating net profit for FY24 at Rmb3.96bn, a 17.2% YoY increase. More importantly, the 4Q24...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's stronger economic data is catching investors' attention, signalling a shift in sentiment and highlighting opportunities in economically...

CSET is poised to benefit from oil supply worries amid Israel-Iran tensions. A closure of Hormuz will raise rates by increasing alternative route...