Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Longyuan Power Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. Still. NORTHBOUND a huge net seller this week, but net buyers in size (RMB +86bn) over 8wks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. Still. NORTHBOUND a huge net seller this week, but net buyers in size (RMB +86bn) over 8wks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

<ul>
<li>The 20% retreat in the share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> from the peak has well reflected the plunge in 3Q23 VLCC rates and 10% earnings downgrade.</li>
<li>4Q23 VLCC rates have rebounded 78.4% QoQ. Re-routing due to recent Houthi attacks on commercial ships at the Red Sea has reduced effective supply and is positive to rates.</li>
<li>Heightened energy security needs will drive demand. The medium-term supply pressure is mild as the VLCC orderbook equals just 2% of the existing fleet, fueling ROE for FY23-25F. </li>
</ul>


The 20% retreat in the share price of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) from the peak has well reflected the plunge in 3Q23 VLCC rates and 10% earnings downgrade.
4Q23 VLCC rates have rebounded 78.4% QoQ. Re-routing due to recent Houthi attacks on commercial ships at the Red Sea has reduced effective supply and is positive to rates.
Heightened energy security needs will drive demand. The medium-term supply pressure is mild as the VLCC orderbook equals just 2% of the existing fleet, fueling ROE for FY23-25F. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Time for Another Look

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> recently wrote that the rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> stock price over the last couple of months may trigger a global index inclusion in May.</li>
<li>The stock stalled/sold off since the Iran war started, our model identified possible support levels for a tactical entry ahead of potential passive tracker buying on May 29.</li>
<li>Bullish momentum for this stock will be affected by geopolitical risk in the next few weeks, buying the 17-16 price zone is our target. Higher Close this week = SHORT.</li>
</ul>



Brian Freitas recently wrote that the rally in Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) stock price over the last couple of months may trigger a global index inclusion in May.
The stock stalled/sold off since the Iran war started, our model identified possible support levels for a tactical entry ahead of potential passive tracker buying on May 29.
Bullish momentum for this stock will be affected by geopolitical risk in the next few weeks, buying the 17-16 price zone is our target. Higher Close this week = SHORT.


COSCO SHIPPING Energy (1138 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Possible Global Index Inclusion In May

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The rally in the stock price over the last couple of months could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> being added to a global index in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> has outperformed its peers but still trades cheaper on comparable valuation metrics.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-transpor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29897:1" rel="noopener">COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transpor (600026 CH)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> premium has jumped recently and could move lower in the short-term.</li>
</ul>


The rally in the stock price over the last couple of months could result in Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) being added to a global index in May.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) has outperformed its peers but still trades cheaper on comparable valuation metrics.
The COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transpor (600026 CH) / Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) premium has jumped recently and could move lower in the short-term.


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Global Index Inclusion & The A/H Premium

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%.  Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.</li>
<li>The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception.  This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.</li>
<li>The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.</li>
</ul>


HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%.  Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.
The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception.  This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.
The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.


China

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is a specialized company primarily engaged in the global shipment of energy, including crude oil, refined oil products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It also provides vessel chartering and shipping agency services. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was established in 2016.

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COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides

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Travis Lundy

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Time for Another Look

The Red Sea crisis will continue to bode well for tanker demand as well as negatively impact capacity supply. CSET has rallied 25% from its recent...

Osbert Tang, CFA

COSCO SHIPPING Energy (1138 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Possible Global Index Inclusion In May

Cosco Shipping (1138 HK) stands to gain significant tailwinds upon confirmation of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. This note outlines key technical...

Nico Rosti

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Global Index Inclusion & The A/H Premium

Following a jump in the stock price, COSCO Shipping Energy could be added to a global index in May. The positioning and passive buying could lead...

Brian Freitas

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (August 2026)

HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60%...

David Mudd

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