Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 14 February 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> reported Q3 results. They were less impressive than one would have hoped. </li>
<li>Lower USDJPY and lower Dubai crude prices mean a JPY 90bn hit to inventory marks, but the rest of the petro business made almost no money in the quarter. </li>
<li>However, the company announced a large buyback. THAT is worth looking at. </li>
</ul>


On 14 February 2023, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) reported Q3 results. They were less impressive than one would have hoped. 
Lower USDJPY and lower Dubai crude prices mean a JPY 90bn hit to inventory marks, but the rest of the petro business made almost no money in the quarter. 
However, the company announced a large buyback. THAT is worth looking at. 


Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

<ul>
<li>YFO offered another <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000022.000071768.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Press Release</a> yesterday. This one outlines what they see as Corporate Governance failures and offers a NEW POLICY.</li>
<li>The Corporate Governance failures are indeed, failures. Toyo's Board has failed to be transparent with shareholders, and in not at least addressing the takeover proposal, has failed its duties.</li>
<li>NEW POLICY? Elect new independent directors <em>"capable of improving the long-term corporate value and maximizing the interests of the general shareholders."  </em>Soft war starts now.</li>
</ul>


YFO offered another Press Release yesterday. This one outlines what they see as Corporate Governance failures and offers a NEW POLICY.
The Corporate Governance failures are indeed, failures. Toyo's Board has failed to be transparent with shareholders, and in not at least addressing the takeover proposal, has failed its duties.
NEW POLICY? Elect new independent directors "capable of improving the long-term corporate value and maximizing the interests of the general shareholders."  Soft war starts now.


YFO To Take the Fight To Toyo Construction's Board

<ul>
<li>In March 2022, longtime <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.</li>
<li>A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.</li>
<li>By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.</li>
</ul>


In March 2022, longtime Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.
A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.
By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.


Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

<ul>
<li>The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.</li>
<li>There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. </li>
<li>Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. </li>
</ul>


The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.
There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. 
Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. 


Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

<ul>
<li>The TSE Free Float Weight Rebalance to be executed at the close Monday (30 May) is about ¥729bn a side, so it will add ~¥1.5trln to volumes. </li>
<li>A sector-neutral basket of the 98 top upweights and 98 top downweights across the 33 TOPIX sectors saw the upweights UNDER-perform the downweights by about 0.3% since the April rebalance.</li>
<li>Monday again sees very large buy and sell flows at the close. This is a guide to taking advantage of those flows. Sector tables and a spreadsheet is attached.</li>
</ul>


The TSE Free Float Weight Rebalance to be executed at the close Monday (30 May) is about ¥729bn a side, so it will add ~¥1.5trln to volumes. 
A sector-neutral basket of the 98 top upweights and 98 top downweights across the 33 TOPIX sectors saw the upweights UNDER-perform the downweights by about 0.3% since the April rebalance.
Monday again sees very large buy and sell flows at the close. This is a guide to taking advantage of those flows. Sector tables and a spreadsheet is attached.


TOPIX May Rebalance - The BIG Flows at the Close MONDAY

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

Idemitsu (5019) announced a bad Q3 result, with petroleum products doing very badly. Full-year forecasts are lowered. A buyback was announced,...

Travis Lundy

YFO To Take the Fight To Toyo Construction's Board

YFO has come out with another statement on Toyo Construction while Toyo remains curiously quiet. There's more detail which should distress...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Cosmo Energy has finally had enough of Murakami-san's behind-the-scenes threats and has launched a poison pill structure/plan. Murakami-san has...

Travis Lundy

Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

There are 2+ days until the last stage of the TSE FFW Rebalance is done. This time sees more changes because of increased share cancellation in...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX May Rebalance - The BIG Flows at the Close MONDAY

The TOPIX Rebalance at end-May is upon us. ¥700+bn of buys and ¥700bn of sell flows at the close today (Friday). The big buys are NTT, Sony,...

Travis Lundy

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