Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a>, subject of a selldown by its major shareholder (discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cosmo-oil-5021-jp-accelerated-block-offering-big-discount-but" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), then a large stake purchase by activist Murakami-san (discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/activist-murakami-san-goes-substantial-on-cosmo-oil-5021" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) announced earnings and a buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback is large enough to matter to other shareholders. </li>
<li>The shareholder structure is interesting enough that investors need to pay attention to the possibilities.</li>
</ul>



Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP), subject of a selldown by its major shareholder (discussed here), then a large stake purchase by activist Murakami-san (discussed here) announced earnings and a buyback.
The buyback is large enough to matter to other shareholders. 
The shareholder structure is interesting enough that investors need to pay attention to the possibilities.


Cosmo Oil (5021) Shareholder Return Policy Is Bigger Than It Looks

<ul>
<li>There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. </li>
<li>On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.</li>
<li>There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. 
On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.
There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPOs front, Zhihu and the SK twins were the main active deals, with LIC being in the pipeline for a potential launch in the coming week.</li>
<li>Placement flows remained slow over the holiday shortened week. With Japan continuing to favour accelerated book build.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPOs front, Zhihu and the SK twins were the main active deals, with LIC being in the pipeline for a potential launch in the coming week.
Placement flows remained slow over the holiday shortened week. With Japan continuing to favour accelerated book build.


ECM Weekly (17th Apr 2022)- Sk Shieldus, One Store, LIC, GoTo, Zhihu, Park24, PHC Holding, Visional

<ul>
<li>Four weeks ago, the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE sold out of a 15% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> they'd held for 15yrs. </li>
<li>Today we see noted Japanese activist Murakami Yoshiaki and affiliates have purchased 5+% of the company, including a large chunk the day after the block trade.</li>
<li>Oftentimes he buys stakes in industries where consolidation is overdue and/or natural. Construction has been one such sector. Refiners probably need consolidation too, but it's not clear it's easy here.</li>
</ul>


Four weeks ago, the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE sold out of a 15% position in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) they'd held for 15yrs. 
Today we see noted Japanese activist Murakami Yoshiaki and affiliates have purchased 5+% of the company, including a large chunk the day after the block trade.
Oftentimes he buys stakes in industries where consolidation is overdue and/or natural. Construction has been one such sector. Refiners probably need consolidation too, but it's not clear it's easy here.


Activist Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021)

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research.</li>
<li>This is not the first sale by Nomura and hence, might not come as a complete surprise.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>


Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research.
This is not the first sale by Nomura and hence, might not come as a complete surprise.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Cosmo Oil (5021) Shareholder Return Policy Is Bigger Than It Looks

Cosmo Oil had a great year, and the 2022 Forecast (to March 2023) is stronger than I expected. The Shareholder Return Policy is manifested by a...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (17th Apr 2022)- Sk Shieldus, One Store, LIC, GoTo, Zhihu, Park24, PHC Holding, Visional

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Activist Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021)

Murakami-san seems to have bailed on construction names recently and is now in two refiners, having gone substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021) after the...

Travis Lundy

Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research. This won't be the first selldown by the parent.

Sumeet Singh

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