Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | July 4-11, 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024

Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Accounting fraud costs the global economy at least US$1 trillion each year in losses to investors, suppliers and consumers</li>
<li>Detecting accounting fraud early gives investors valuable intel to rethink certain stock or bond holdings.</li>
<li>Transparently.AI's AI-powered solution is highly accurate in measuring and detecting accounting manipulation and fraud.</li>
</ul>


Accounting fraud costs the global economy at least US$1 trillion each year in losses to investors, suppliers and consumers
Detecting accounting fraud early gives investors valuable intel to rethink certain stock or bond holdings.
Transparently.AI's AI-powered solution is highly accurate in measuring and detecting accounting manipulation and fraud.


Using AI to Detect Fraud and Protect Your Investments

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Country Garden Services / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in June 2024.</li>
<li>The index changes for the June 2024 index rebal will be announced on 17th May 2024.</li>
<li>The HSI selection process is highly subjective and does not follow clear-cut rules. This insight is simply an attempt to provide readers with an overall understanding of the possible scenarios.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in June 2024.
The index changes for the June 2024 index rebal will be announced on 17th May 2024.
The HSI selection process is highly subjective and does not follow clear-cut rules. This insight is simply an attempt to provide readers with an overall understanding of the possible scenarios.


Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Jun 24: Could Country Garden Services Get Deleted?

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | July 4-11, 2024

This note is a weekly (July 4-11, 2024) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024

This note is a weekly (June 14-20, 2024; select weeks available on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused...

Robert Ciemniak

Using AI to Detect Fraud and Protect Your Investments

Accounting fraud costs investors, consumers and suppliers around the world $1 trillion annually. Early detection with Transparently.AI's solution...

Mark Jolley

Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Jun 24: Could Country Garden Services Get Deleted?

Country Garden Services (6098 HK) will be deleted from the Hang Seng Index and BYD Electronics (285 HK) will be added to the index in June 2024....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | July 4-11, 2024

This note is a weekly (July 4-11, 2024) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024

This note is a weekly (June 14-20, 2024; select weeks available on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused...

Robert Ciemniak

Using AI to Detect Fraud and Protect Your Investments

​Accounting fraud costs investors, consumers and suppliers around the world $1 trillion annually. Early detection with Transparently.AI's solution...

Mark Jolley

Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Jun 24: Could Country Garden Services Get Deleted?

Country Garden Services (6098 HK) will be deleted from the Hang Seng Index and BYD Electronics (285 HK) will be added to the index in June 2024....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Accounting fraud costs investors, consumers and suppliers around the world $1 trillion annually. Early detection with Transparently.AI's solution...