Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 5-11, 2024

<ul>
<li>China's Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) data shows a spike in December, though 2023 still ended with a lower PSL increase than 2022</li>
<li>The latest increase is seen by some as a signal of support ultimately for the property sector, though we think this is very different from the 2014-2015 stimulus</li>
<li>The previous increases in 2022 were associated with support for the completion of unfinished development projects, and in 2014-2018, with shantytown renovation schemes, incl. "monetarization"</li>
</ul>


China's Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) data shows a spike in December, though 2023 still ended with a lower PSL increase than 2022
The latest increase is seen by some as a signal of support ultimately for the property sector, though we think this is very different from the 2014-2015 stimulus
The previous increases in 2022 were associated with support for the completion of unfinished development projects, and in 2014-2018, with shantytown renovation schemes, incl. "monetarization"


China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 29 -Jan 4, 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's crude steel production data behaved differently in the 2021-2023 downturn relative to new home sales and new starts, compared to the prior cycles.</li>
<li>The 40% drop (12M vs prior 12M) at the low point for new starts compares with around 10% for the crude steel.</li>
<li>In this note, we outline a few possible explanations, with some twists.</li>
</ul>


China's crude steel production data behaved differently in the 2021-2023 downturn relative to new home sales and new starts, compared to the prior cycles.
The 40% drop (12M vs prior 12M) at the low point for new starts compares with around 10% for the crude steel.
In this note, we outline a few possible explanations, with some twists.


China Property And The Demand For Commodities Puzzle

<ul>
<li>The weekly new home sales data indicates a smaller pace of decline for the select 16 major cities with consistent data towards the year-end.</li>
<li>Xi'an stands out as an outperformer. Recent policy easing in Beijing and Shanghai may not be fully reflected in the data yet.</li>
<li>The small-sample weekly data serves as a good directional indicator as to what to expect in the national figures for the same month (published in the middle of next month).</li>
</ul>


The weekly new home sales data indicates a smaller pace of decline for the select 16 major cities with consistent data towards the year-end.
Xi'an stands out as an outperformer. Recent policy easing in Beijing and Shanghai may not be fully reflected in the data yet.
The small-sample weekly data serves as a good directional indicator as to what to expect in the national figures for the same month (published in the middle of next month).


China Property - New Home Sales Growth Less Negative (16 Cities) To Week Ending Dec 24

China

Country Garden Holdings is a major real estate development company primarily engaged in property development, construction, property investment, property management, and hotel operations. The company offers a diverse portfolio including residential projects, commercial properties, and integrated urban developments. It was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Foshan, China.

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Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 5-11, 2024

This note is a weekly (Jan 5-11, 2024) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context

China Macro-Property: In this note, we look briefly at the latest spike in Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) in December 2023, putting it into...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 29 -Jan 4, 2024

This note is a weekly (Dec 29, 2023 - Jan 4, 2024) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property And The Demand For Commodities Puzzle

China's crude steel production data behaved differently in the 2021-2023 downturn relative to new home sales and new starts, compared to the prior...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - New Home Sales Growth Less Negative (16 Cities) To Week Ending Dec 24

China Property: The weekly new home sales data indicates a smaller pace of decline for the select 16 major cities with consistent data towards the...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)