Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Funding squeeze evident in HK's HIBOR market and reported in Australia too</li>
<li>Even where not visible, this must be expected globally, as banks reign in risk</li>
<li>MQG has low levels of deposits and high levels of securities</li>
</ul>


Funding squeeze evident in HK's HIBOR market and reported in Australia too
Even where not visible, this must be expected globally, as banks reign in risk
MQG has low levels of deposits and high levels of securities


Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,565/1,570 points and the support at 1,545/1,540 points, in response to the rebounds in US and European markets after major central banks announced they would collaborate to boost liquidity in the financial system.</li><li>In light of this, we suggest investing in high-dividend stocks with large upside to their fair values.</li><li>The factors that will determine the SET Index's direction in the near future include the following: i) the actual impact of the write-off of Credit Suisse's additional tier one (AT1) debt worth USD17.3bn to zero; and ii) the FOMC meeting on March 22, specifically the signals regarding the interest rate trend and further measures to stabilize the financial system.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,565/1,570 points and the support at 1,545/1,540 points, in response to the rebounds in US and European markets after major central banks announced they would collaborate to boost liquidity in the financial system.In light of this, we suggest investing in high-dividend stocks with large upside to their fair values.The factors that will determine the SET Index's direction in the near future include the following: i) the actual impact of the write-off of Credit Suisse's additional tier one (AT1) debt worth USD17.3bn to zero; and ii) the FOMC meeting on March 22, specifically the signals regarding the interest rate trend and further measures to stabilize the financial system.

Markets Will Remain Highly Volatile Ahead of FOMC Meeting; Investors Are Suggested to Find Shelter in Defensive Stocks

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Given the relative large size of this deal, it should have a positive impact on its share price, especially on a relative basis against its competitors. </li>
<li>The collapse of SVB Financial and uncertain investors' reactions on the purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS will likely add to the global investors' negative sentiment on the financial sector. </li>
</ul>


On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4% of its market cap.
Given the relative large size of this deal, it should have a positive impact on its share price, especially on a relative basis against its competitors. 
The collapse of SVB Financial and uncertain investors' reactions on the purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS will likely add to the global investors' negative sentiment on the financial sector. 


Meritz Financial Group: A Large Share Buyback Amid Global Financials Uncertainties

<ul><li>US yield curves declined after problems emerged in the banking system, suggesting that the Fed will end its rate hikes sooner than expected</li><li>S&P 500 Index has a negative correlation with US 10Y bond yield (-70.00%)</li><li>The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the resistance at 1,565/1,575 points and the support at 1,543/1,535 points.</li></ul>

US yield curves declined after problems emerged in the banking system, suggesting that the Fed will end its rate hikes sooner than expectedS&P 500 Index has a negative correlation with US 10Y bond yield (-70.00%)The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the resistance at 1,565/1,575 points and the support at 1,543/1,535 points.

High Probability That the Fed Will Slow Down Rate Hikes Should Lift the SET

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,550/1,540 points and the resistance at 1,574/1,590 points.</li><li>Despite the market having begun to worry about the stability of the financial system in Europe, which caused regional equities to sink 3.50% yesterday, we still view that the elevated inflation (8.5% YoY in February) will prompt the ECB to raise its policy interest rate by a further 50 bps to 3.50%.</li><li>US and European markets fell due to concerns over the stability of the global banking system after the Saudi National Bank (SNB), the major shareholder of Credit Suisse, announced that it would be unable to provide additional financial assistance to the troubled Swiss bank because of the shareholding ceiling of 10%.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,550/1,540 points and the resistance at 1,574/1,590 points.Despite the market having begun to worry about the stability of the financial system in Europe, which caused regional equities to sink 3.50% yesterday, we still view that the elevated inflation (8.5% YoY in February) will prompt the ECB to raise its policy interest rate by a further 50 bps to 3.50%.US and European markets fell due to concerns over the stability of the global banking system after the Saudi National Bank (SNB), the major shareholder of Credit Suisse, announced that it would be unable to provide additional financial assistance to the troubled Swiss bank because of the shareholding ceiling of 10%.

Switzerland

Credit Suisse Group AG operates as a wealth management firm. The Company specializes in investment banking and offers wealth management activities aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets, as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets. Credit Suisse Group serves customers worldwide.

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Credit Suisse Group (CSGN SW)

MQG - Funding Squeeze?

Funding squeeze is evident in Hong Kong, and reports suggest the same in Australia, with other markets likely. Banks which rely more on non-deposit...

Daniel Tabbush

Markets Will Remain Highly Volatile Ahead of FOMC Meeting; Investors Are Suggested to Find Shelter in Defensive Stocks

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,565/1,570 points and the support at 1,545/1,540 points, in response to the...

Krungthai XSpring

High Probability That the Fed Will Slow Down Rate Hikes Should Lift the SET

US yield curves declined after problems emerged in the banking system, suggesting that the Fed will end its rate hikes sooner than...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,550/1,540 points and the resistance at 1,574/1,590 points. Despite the market having...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MQG - Funding Squeeze?

Funding squeeze is evident in Hong Kong, and reports suggest the same in Australia, with other markets likely. Banks which rely more on non-deposit...

Daniel Tabbush

Markets Will Remain Highly Volatile Ahead of FOMC Meeting; Investors Are Suggested to Find Shelter in Defensive Stocks

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,565/1,570 points and the support at 1,545/1,540 points, in response to the...

Krungthai XSpring

Meritz Financial Group: A Large Share Buyback Amid Global Financials Uncertainties

On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4%...

Douglas Kim

High Probability That the Fed Will Slow Down Rate Hikes Should Lift the SET

US yield curves declined after problems emerged in the banking system, suggesting that the Fed will end its rate hikes sooner than...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,550/1,540 points and the resistance at 1,574/1,590 points. Despite the market having...

Krungthai XSpring