Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>EIA maintained its 2024 oil demand forecast but cut its 2025 estimate by 160k bpd. OPEC reduced its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 135k and 65k bpd, respectively.</li>
<li>Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.45m bpd in July, exceeding the target by 1%.</li>
<li>EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it still expects prices to rise in H22024 led by a decline in inventories.</li>
</ul>


EIA maintained its 2024 oil demand forecast but cut its 2025 estimate by 160k bpd. OPEC reduced its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 135k and 65k bpd, respectively.
Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.45m bpd in July, exceeding the target by 1%.
EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it still expects prices to rise in H22024 led by a decline in inventories.


EIA and OPEC Cut Demand Forecasts Amid China Slowdown; EIA Predicts Limited Oil Price Growth

<ul>
<li>Hurricane Debby caused 300,000 electricity customers to lose power in Florida and Georgia, reducing electricity demand, which led to natural gas prices declining.</li>
<li>Since the 2006 shale boom, the share of US natural gas production from the offshore Gulf of Mexico has dropped from 15% to 1.8% by 2023.</li>
<li>The Gulf of Mexico area accounted for 14.4% of US crude oil production in 2023. Although still a significant share, it has declined from 25.4% in 2006. </li>
</ul>


Hurricane Debby caused 300,000 electricity customers to lose power in Florida and Georgia, reducing electricity demand, which led to natural gas prices declining.
Since the 2006 shale boom, the share of US natural gas production from the offshore Gulf of Mexico has dropped from 15% to 1.8% by 2023.
The Gulf of Mexico area accounted for 14.4% of US crude oil production in 2023. Although still a significant share, it has declined from 25.4% in 2006. 


Hurricanes More Likely to Disrupt Crude Supply and Lower Demand for Natural Gas

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count increased by two to 588 for the week ending 09/Aug, following a decline the week prior.</li>
<li>US oil rig count rose by three to 485, after remaining flat the previous week. Gas rigs decreased by one to 97, marking a third consecutive weekly decline.</li>
<li>For the week ending 02/Aug, US crude oil production hit a record 13.4 mbpd, following four weeks of steady output at 13.3 mbpd.</li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count increased by two to 588 for the week ending 09/Aug, following a decline the week prior.
US oil rig count rose by three to 485, after remaining flat the previous week. Gas rigs decreased by one to 97, marking a third consecutive weekly decline.
For the week ending 02/Aug, US crude oil production hit a record 13.4 mbpd, following four weeks of steady output at 13.3 mbpd.


<ul>
<li>US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.</li>
<li>For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.</li>
</ul>


US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.
For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.


[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

<ul>
<li>Crude oil prices ended Monday lower but fell less than other commodities and equities. WTI dropped 0.79% and Brent fell 0.66%, while the S&amp;P 500 declined 3%.</li>
<li>Crude oil prices were supported by rising Middle East tensions, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field, and a sharp decline in the DXY.</li>
<li>Henry Hub futures fell 1.27% due to surplus stockpiles, cooler US weather forecasts, and the impact of Hurricane Debby.</li>
</ul>


Crude oil prices ended Monday lower but fell less than other commodities and equities. WTI dropped 0.79% and Brent fell 0.66%, while the S&amp;P 500 declined 3%.
Crude oil prices were supported by rising Middle East tensions, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field, and a sharp decline in the DXY.
Henry Hub futures fell 1.27% due to surplus stockpiles, cooler US weather forecasts, and the impact of Hurricane Debby.


Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

EIA and OPEC Cut Demand Forecasts Amid China Slowdown; EIA Predicts Limited Oil Price Growth

EIA and OPEC cut oil demand forecasts, while OPEC members exceeded supply cut targets in July. EIA foresees rising oil prices in late 2024 despite...

Mint Finance

Hurricanes More Likely to Disrupt Crude Supply and Lower Demand for Natural Gas

Hurricane Debby impacted natural gas prices by reducing electricity demand. The Gulf of Mexico now accounts for less than 2% of US nat-gas output,...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Climbs on Oil Rig Gains

For the week ending 09/Aug, the US rig count rose by 2 to 588, driven by a 3-rig increase in oil rigs, while gas rigs fell by 1. US crude output...

Mint Finance

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

Crude oil prices dipped on Monday but outperformed other commodities and equities. Rising Middle East tensions, Libya oil field shutdown, and DXY...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EIA and OPEC Cut Demand Forecasts Amid China Slowdown; EIA Predicts Limited Oil Price Growth

​EIA and OPEC cut oil demand forecasts, while OPEC members exceeded supply cut targets in July. EIA foresees rising oil prices in late 2024 despite...

Mint Finance

Hurricanes More Likely to Disrupt Crude Supply and Lower Demand for Natural Gas

Hurricane Debby impacted natural gas prices by reducing electricity demand. The Gulf of Mexico now accounts for less than 2% of US nat-gas output,...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Climbs on Oil Rig Gains

For the week ending 09/Aug, the US rig count rose by 2 to 588, driven by a 3-rig increase in oil rigs, while gas rigs fell by 1. US crude output...

Mint Finance

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

​Crude oil prices dipped on Monday but outperformed other commodities and equities. Rising Middle East tensions, Libya oil field shutdown, and DXY...

Mint Finance

EIA and OPEC cut oil demand forecasts, while OPEC members exceeded supply cut targets in July. EIA foresees rising oil prices in late 2024 despite...

Crude oil prices dipped on Monday but outperformed other commodities and equities. Rising Middle East tensions, Libya oil field shutdown, and DXY...