Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by two to 586 for the week ending 16/Aug, indicating a decline for the second time in three weeks.</li>
<li>US oil rig count fell by two to 483, after rising by three the previous week. Gas rigs increased by one to 98, after declining for three straight weeks.</li>
<li>For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude oil production fell back to 13.3m bpd, after hitting its record high of 13.4m bpd the week prior.  </li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by two to 586 for the week ending 16/Aug, indicating a decline for the second time in three weeks.
US oil rig count fell by two to 483, after rising by three the previous week. Gas rigs increased by one to 98, after declining for three straight weeks.
For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude oil production fell back to 13.3m bpd, after hitting its record high of 13.4m bpd the week prior.  


Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacity. Other commodities like crude and its derivatives look weak as well. Gold only strong performing commodity in China due to domestic economic weakness .</li>
<li>Welcome to this week’s energy cable with a focus on the economic troubles in China and its impact on commodity prices.</li>
<li>This week’s piece will have a lot of charts, therefore we’ll keep the text short.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacity. Other commodities like crude and its derivatives look weak as well. Gold only strong performing commodity in China due to domestic economic weakness .
Welcome to this week’s energy cable with a focus on the economic troubles in China and its impact on commodity prices.
This week’s piece will have a lot of charts, therefore we’ll keep the text short.


Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.</li><li>The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.</li><li>Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.</li></ul>

During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude inventories increased by 1.4 mb for the first time in seven weeks, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.9 mb drawdown.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 6 Bcf, its first decline since 04/Apr. However, storage levels are up 6.8% YoY and 13% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Wells Fargo, UBS, and BMO Capital reduced their target prices on Occidental. BMO Capital lowered its targets on Chevron and Halliburton but raised its target on Exxon Mobil.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude inventories increased by 1.4 mb for the first time in seven weeks, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.9 mb drawdown.
US natural gas inventories fell by 6 Bcf, its first decline since 04/Apr. However, storage levels are up 6.8% YoY and 13% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Wells Fargo, UBS, and BMO Capital reduced their target prices on Occidental. BMO Capital lowered its targets on Chevron and Halliburton but raised its target on Exxon Mobil.


[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

<ul>
<li>EIA maintained its 2024 oil demand forecast but cut its 2025 estimate by 160k bpd. OPEC reduced its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 135k and 65k bpd, respectively.</li>
<li>Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.45m bpd in July, exceeding the target by 1%.</li>
<li>EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it still expects prices to rise in H22024 led by a decline in inventories.</li>
</ul>


EIA maintained its 2024 oil demand forecast but cut its 2025 estimate by 160k bpd. OPEC reduced its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 135k and 65k bpd, respectively.
Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.45m bpd in July, exceeding the target by 1%.
EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it still expects prices to rise in H22024 led by a decline in inventories.


EIA and OPEC Cut Demand Forecasts Amid China Slowdown; EIA Predicts Limited Oil Price Growth

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Dip in Oil Rigs Drives US Rig Count Down

For the week ending 16/Aug, the US rig count fell by 2 to 586. Oil rig count fell by 2 while the gas rig count rose by 1.US crude output rolled...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacityOther commodities like crude and its...

Steno Research

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone...

The Commodity Report

[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...

Mint Finance

EIA and OPEC Cut Demand Forecasts Amid China Slowdown; EIA Predicts Limited Oil Price Growth

EIA and OPEC cut oil demand forecasts, while OPEC members exceeded supply cut targets in July. EIA foresees rising oil prices in late 2024 despite...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Dip in Oil Rigs Drives US Rig Count Down

For the week ending 16/Aug, the US rig count fell by 2 to 586. Oil rig count fell by 2 while the gas rig count rose by 1.US crude output rolled...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacityOther commodities like crude and its...

Steno Research

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone...

The Commodity Report

[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

​US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...

Mint Finance

EIA and OPEC Cut Demand Forecasts Amid China Slowdown; EIA Predicts Limited Oil Price Growth

​EIA and OPEC cut oil demand forecasts, while OPEC members exceeded supply cut targets in July. EIA foresees rising oil prices in late 2024 despite...

Mint Finance

US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...

EIA and OPEC cut oil demand forecasts, while OPEC members exceeded supply cut targets in July. EIA foresees rising oil prices in late 2024 despite...