Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q1 starts on a good note for infrastructure; competitive intensity cools off, commodities correct: In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bn</li><li>Capital goods sector to benefit from reviving private Capex and realignment of global supply chains; strong case for PE multiple expansion</li><li>Earnings trend YoY/QoQ: We expect EPC/infra universe revenue/EBITDA/PAT to degrow 11.5/6.9/26.5% sequentially and grow 15.7/4.1/10.9% YoY, with EBITDA margin expanding by 72/(163)bps QoQ/YoY.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Q1 starts on a good note for infrastructure; competitive intensity cools off, commodities correct: In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bnCapital goods sector to benefit from reviving private Capex and realignment of global supply chains; strong case for PE multiple expansionEarnings trend YoY/QoQ: We expect EPC/infra universe revenue/EBITDA/PAT to degrow 11.5/6.9/26.5% sequentially and grow 15.7/4.1/10.9% YoY, with EBITDA margin expanding by 72/(163)bps QoQ/YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March 2022).</li>
<li>The objective of the checks is to understand the underlying business narrative not to forecast the coming quarter and hence the limited sample sizes. </li>
<li>These checks are used as a tool to identify areas of discrepancy between management commentary and ground reality that could be the subject of future deeper dives. </li>
</ul>


This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March 2022).
The objective of the checks is to understand the underlying business narrative not to forecast the coming quarter and hence the limited sample sizes. 
These checks are used as a tool to identify areas of discrepancy between management commentary and ground reality that could be the subject of future deeper dives. 


India Channel Insight | Q4 Report Card | 59 Checks Across 5 Sectors

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

India

Cummins India Limited manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The Company also manufactures generating sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and air-field buses.  In addition, Cummins India Ltd. operates a computerized and fully-equipped research and development facility.

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Cummins India (KKC IN)

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Industrials - Bracing for Recovery

In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bn.

HDFC Securities

India Channel Insight | Q4 Report Card | 59 Checks Across 5 Sectors

This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March...

Pranav Bhavsar

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

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