Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CXMT closed its debut at Rmb49.00 (+466% from IPO, intraday high +531%), making it China's most valuable listed company on Rmb100bn+ turnover.</li>
<li>A 6.73% free float and 462.85x oversubscription explain the pop better than fundamentals do; professional allocation holders sold immediately, and P/B–ROE now sits off the chart.</li>
<li>We move to BEARISH, TP unchanged at Rmb11.65 — a valuation-gap call, not a business downgrade: spot is 4.2x our TP and 3.4x even our bull case.</li>
</ul>


CXMT closed its debut at Rmb49.00 (+466% from IPO, intraday high +531%), making it China's most valuable listed company on Rmb100bn+ turnover.
A 6.73% free float and 462.85x oversubscription explain the pop better than fundamentals do; professional allocation holders sold immediately, and P/B–ROE now sits off the chart.
We move to BEARISH, TP unchanged at Rmb11.65 — a valuation-gap call, not a business downgrade: spot is 4.2x our TP and 3.4x even our bull case.


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH): The Debut Broke Our Model. It Didn't Break Our Numbers.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cxmt-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)</a> beats its prospectus forecast in 1H26 earnings, posting net profit of Rmb77.6bn. In 2Q26, it made Rmb52.8bn. </li>
<li>Demand outlook will stay encouraging in 2H26, and the market consensus appears conservative now. This means upside potential for earnings forecasts.</li>
<li>While at 22x FY26 PER, CXMT looks expensive, its high 3-year EPS CAGR justifies it. Moreover, its 0.05x PEG is below the sector average.  </li>
</ul>



CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) beats its prospectus forecast in 1H26 earnings, posting net profit of Rmb77.6bn. In 2Q26, it made Rmb52.8bn. 
Demand outlook will stay encouraging in 2H26, and the market consensus appears conservative now. This means upside potential for earnings forecasts.
While at 22x FY26 PER, CXMT looks expensive, its high 3-year EPS CAGR justifies it. Moreover, its 0.05x PEG is below the sector average.  


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH): Blown Through the Roof

<ul>
<li>CXMT's H1-2026 results beat IPO guidance by roughly 25–36%, with R&amp;D up 87% YoY and four DRAM process nodes now in mass production — the growth story remains fully intact.</li>
<li>Spot at RMB58.60 implies 23x FY26E and 20x FY27E EPS — a scarcity premium the STAR Market's thin free float can sustain longer than fundamentals justify.</li>
<li>We maintain our BEARISH stance but raise our fair value to RMB31.40, based on an 12x China-specific multiple band applied to upgraded FY26E/FY27E EPS.</li>
</ul>


CXMT's H1-2026 results beat IPO guidance by roughly 25–36%, with R&amp;D up 87% YoY and four DRAM process nodes now in mass production — the growth story remains fully intact.
Spot at RMB58.60 implies 23x FY26E and 20x FY27E EPS — a scarcity premium the STAR Market's thin free float can sustain longer than fundamentals justify.
We maintain our BEARISH stance but raise our fair value to RMB31.40, based on an 12x China-specific multiple band applied to upgraded FY26E/FY27E EPS.


CXMT (688825 CH) H1 2026 Results: Beat-And-Raise Meets an Overshot Multiple

Equity Capital Markets

CXMT Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cxmt-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)</a> concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.</li>
<li>It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. </li>
<li>Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.</li>
</ul>



CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.
It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. 
Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>CXMT listed on the SSE STAR Market on 27 Jul 2026. This note works through the entry rules and timing for Stock Connect, STAR50 and CSI 300.</li>
<li>We estimate Northbound Connect access in Nov 2026 and a possible STAR50 ADD in Dec 2026. Then CSI 300 ADD in December 2027.</li>
<li>It is already in MS-China All Shares. Then a possible MS-China ADD would follow at the February 2027 review, effective 1 Mar 2027.</li>
</ul>


CXMT listed on the SSE STAR Market on 27 Jul 2026. This note works through the entry rules and timing for Stock Connect, STAR50 and CSI 300.
We estimate Northbound Connect access in Nov 2026 and a possible STAR50 ADD in Dec 2026. Then CSI 300 ADD in December 2027.
It is already in MS-China All Shares. Then a possible MS-China ADD would follow at the February 2027 review, effective 1 Mar 2027.


CXMT: Path to Connect, STAR50 and CSI 300 Inclusion, and FF Nuances

China

CXMT Corporation develops, manufactures, and distributes integrated circuit products. The Company produces dynamic random-access memory chips. CXMT conducts businesses in China.

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CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)