Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Capacity is booked through end-2027, with Dell, HP, Lenovo and Apple prioritised; FY25 utilisation already 95.73% — this is contracted revenue, not a forecast.</li>
<li>The industry stopped behaving like a commodity: Micron and SK Hynix now take prepayments and lock volume, pushing PC and handset makers toward CXMT, the largest uncontracted supplier left.</li>
<li>
<strong>BULLISH, TP Rmb11.65 (+34.5%):</strong> 6.5x FY26E EPS, a deliberate discount to peers that prices zero HBM optionality and concedes the scarcity window closes around 2028.</li>
</ul>


Capacity is booked through end-2027, with Dell, HP, Lenovo and Apple prioritised; FY25 utilisation already 95.73% — this is contracted revenue, not a forecast.
The industry stopped behaving like a commodity: Micron and SK Hynix now take prepayments and lock volume, pushing PC and handset makers toward CXMT, the largest uncontracted supplier left.

BULLISH, TP Rmb11.65 (+34.5%): 6.5x FY26E EPS, a deliberate discount to peers that prices zero HBM optionality and concedes the scarcity window closes around 2028.


CXMT Corp (688825 CH): Nothing Left to Sell, Everything Left to Re-Rate

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Xiaomi and Stepfun all shipped model updates, with price cuts and open weights at the center of the week.</li>
<li>AI infrastructure financing stayed active across Akamai, Nscale, Firmus, Oracle-linked data centers, CoreWeave facilities and SoftBank debt.</li>
<li>Regulatory and security news focused on Pentagon supply-chain controls, OpenAI evaluation incidents and US review before UK model testing.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Xiaomi and Stepfun all shipped model updates, with price cuts and open weights at the center of the week.
AI infrastructure financing stayed active across Akamai, Nscale, Firmus, Oracle-linked data centers, CoreWeave facilities and SoftBank debt.
Regulatory and security news focused on Pentagon supply-chain controls, OpenAI evaluation incidents and US review before UK model testing.


This Week in AI (Sep 20-26): Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Launch Cheaper; Data Center IPO Delays

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

CXMT Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>My base case valuation of CXMT is market cap of 835.8 billion RMB (P/E of 5.9x using my base case estimated net profit of 140.9 billion RMB in 2026).</li>
<li>The target P/E of 5.9x is based on a 30% discount to the comps' P/E valuation in 2026.</li>
<li>If CXMT achieves market cap of about 836 billion RMB (US$123 billion), this would represent about 12% of SK Hynix's market cap of 1,558 trillion KRW (US$1.03 trillion).</li>
</ul>


My base case valuation of CXMT is market cap of 835.8 billion RMB (P/E of 5.9x using my base case estimated net profit of 140.9 billion RMB in 2026).
The target P/E of 5.9x is based on a 30% discount to the comps' P/E valuation in 2026.
If CXMT achieves market cap of about 836 billion RMB (US$123 billion), this would represent about 12% of SK Hynix's market cap of 1,558 trillion KRW (US$1.03 trillion).


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>This is a very light note, given time constraints. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-28/us-readies-china-chip-curbs-that-stop-short-of-earlier-proposals?embedded-checkout=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It's rumored that on Monday, we will have new export controls</a>, which seem to be massively light.</li><li>Importantly, they are going to exclude CXMT altogether.</li><li>History is a pretty good guide. Almost every single export restriction has led to bad returns prior, bad returns on the week off, and positive returns almost 100% of the time 6 months after for SOXX. This applies doubly to Semicap.</li></ul>

This is a very light note, given time constraints. It's rumored that on Monday, we will have new export controls, which seem to be massively light.Importantly, they are going to exclude CXMT altogether.History is a pretty good guide. Almost every single export restriction has led to bad returns prior, bad returns on the week off, and positive returns almost 100% of the time 6 months after for SOXX. This applies doubly to Semicap.

Happy Thanksgiving Semicap & Semiconductors

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changxin-memory-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT (1726722D CH)</a> aims to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO in the A-share STAR market. It is rapidly gaining global market share, which is its key attractiveness.</li>
<li>It is a beneficiary of a solid industry and demand outlook. It has a leadership position in China's DRAM market and high competitiveness built on its technological strength. </li>
<li>At just 2.8x PER for FY26, based on 10% share capital enlargement, our initial assessment is that it is priced cheaper than global peers. </li>
</ul>



CXMT (1726722D CH) aims to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO in the A-share STAR market. It is rapidly gaining global market share, which is its key attractiveness.
It is a beneficiary of a solid industry and demand outlook. It has a leadership position in China's DRAM market and high competitiveness built on its technological strength. 
At just 2.8x PER for FY26, based on 10% share capital enlargement, our initial assessment is that it is priced cheaper than global peers. 


CXMT Corporation (长鑫科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

China

CXMT Corporation develops, manufactures, and distributes integrated circuit products. The Company produces dynamic random-access memory chips. CXMT conducts businesses in China.

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CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)

CXMT Corp (688825 CH): Nothing Left to Sell, Everything Left to Re-Rate

CXMT priced below the DRAM peers it is displacing, with capacity sold out through 2027. We initiate BULLISH, TP Rmb11.65 (+34.5%) — a scarcity...

Mo Aziz

This Week in AI (Sep 20-26): Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Launch Cheaper; Data Center IPO Delays

This week in AI: Anthropic and OpenAI cut frontier-model costs, Grok 4.7 entered major coding channels, and financing stress hit infrastructure.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CXMT IPO Valuation Analysis

My base case valuation of CXMT is market cap of 835.8 billion RMB (US$123 billion) (P/E of 5.9x using my base case estimated net profit of 140.9...

Douglas Kim

Happy Thanksgiving Semicap & Semiconductors

This is a very light note, given time constraints. It's rumored that on Monday, we will have new export controls, which seem to be massively...

Fabricated Knowledge

CXMT Corporation (长鑫科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

CXMT plans to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO on the A-share STAR market, with strong global market share growth and competitive IPO pricing compared...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

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CXMT Corp (688825 CH): Nothing Left to Sell, Everything Left to Re-Rate

CXMT priced below the DRAM peers it is displacing, with capacity sold out through 2027. We initiate BULLISH, TP Rmb11.65 (+34.5%) — a scarcity...

Mo Aziz

This Week in AI (Sep 20-26): Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Launch Cheaper; Data Center IPO Delays

This week in AI: Anthropic and OpenAI cut frontier-model costs, Grok 4.7 entered major coding channels, and financing stress hit infrastructure.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CXMT IPO Valuation Analysis

My base case valuation of CXMT is market cap of 835.8 billion RMB (US$123 billion) (P/E of 5.9x using my base case estimated net profit of 140.9...

Douglas Kim

Happy Thanksgiving Semicap & Semiconductors

This is a very light note, given time constraints. It's rumored that on Monday, we will have new export controls, which seem to be massively...

Fabricated Knowledge

CXMT Corporation (长鑫科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

​CXMT plans to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO on the A-share STAR market, with strong global market share growth and competitive IPO pricing compared...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CXMT plans to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO on the A-share STAR market, with strong global market share growth and competitive IPO pricing compared...