Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If Silchester's activism towards <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18665:1" rel="noopener">Shiga (8366 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku (8382 JP)</a> is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. </li>
<li>The idea that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. </li>
</ul>


If Silchester's activism towards Shiga (8366 JP) &amp; Chugoku (8382 JP) is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. 
The idea that the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> will sell to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> its 25% Yashili stake for HK$1.20 per share. Post-completion, Mengniu will launch a privatisation offer at HK$1.20.  </li>
<li>The privatisation is subject to several pre-conditions, which carry low risk in our view. The key conditions are the headcount test and rejections by &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders.</li>
<li>The offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> is attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 30.4%. Buy up to HK$1.09 (implies an 85% deal probability).</li>
</ul>



Danone SA (BN FP) will sell to China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) its 25% Yashili stake for HK$1.20 per share. Post-completion, Mengniu will launch a privatisation offer at HK$1.20.  
The privatisation is subject to several pre-conditions, which carry low risk in our view. The key conditions are the headcount test and rejections by &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders.
The offer for Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) is attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 30.4%. Buy up to HK$1.09 (implies an 85% deal probability).


Yashili’s HK$1.20 Privatisation Offer from Mengniu

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0506/2022050602098.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price, is in line with the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0316/2022031601535.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16 March announcement</a>.</li>
<li>Conditions involve various business disposals and the exit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a>'s stake in Yashili;  yet apart from timing, which is contingent on regulatory approvals, this looks done. </li>
</ul>



Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) has announced a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK).
The cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price, is in line with the 16 March announcement.
Conditions involve various business disposals and the exit of Danone SA (BN FP)'s stake in Yashili;  yet apart from timing, which is contingent on regulatory approvals, this looks done. 


Yashili (1230 HK)'s Pre-Conditional Offer From Mengniu

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> announced its controlling shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili and several potential transactions.</li>
<li>If the transactions proceed, the potential privatisation offer is HK$1.20 per Yashili share, a 31.9% premium to the last close price of HK$0.91 (prior to the trading halt).</li>
<li>The potential transactions are subject to a number of pre-conditions and conditions. We think the potential offer is attractive.  </li>
</ul>



Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) announced its controlling shareholder, China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili and several potential transactions.
If the transactions proceed, the potential privatisation offer is HK$1.20 per Yashili share, a 31.9% premium to the last close price of HK$0.91 (prior to the trading halt).
The potential transactions are subject to a number of pre-conditions and conditions. We think the potential offer is attractive.  


Yashili’s Potential Pre-Conditional Privatisation Offer from Mengniu

<ul>
<li>Infant formula play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> is currently suspended "pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".</li>
<li>Shares closed up 98% yesterday, on clear news leakage, before shares were suspended. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> holds 51.04% with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> another 25%.  </li>
<li>This trading halt follows the recent successful Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a>, one of Yashili's key peers.</li>
</ul>


Infant formula play Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) is currently suspended "pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".
Shares closed up 98% yesterday, on clear news leakage, before shares were suspended. China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) holds 51.04% with Danone SA (BN FP) another 25%.  
This trading halt follows the recent successful Offer for Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK), one of Yashili's key peers.


France

Danone SA is a food processing company. The Company produces dairy products, beverages, baby food and clinical/medical nutrition products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Danone SA (BN FP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Yashili’s HK$1.20 Privatisation Offer from Mengniu

Mengniu will launch a pre-conditional privatisation offer at HK$1.20. The risk around the pre-conditions is low. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Yashili (1230 HK)'s Pre-Conditional Offer From Mengniu

HK$1.20/share will get up. I'd be a buyer here. I'd probably bid up to ~HK$1.13/share or a gross/annualised spread of 6.2%/15%.

David Blennerhassett

Yashili’s Potential Pre-Conditional Privatisation Offer from Mengniu

Yashili announced that Mengniu is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili and several potential transactions, which could lead to a...

Arun George

Yashili (1230 HK): More Formula Fortune?

There is, as yet, no definitive Offer. However, the suspension announcement and the large share price movement suggest an Offer is imminent. Or at...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)